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Thread: Coronavirus

  1. #1591
    Grandmaster jamil's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Denny347 View Post
    Sooo, what you are saying is that with the flu, I have a 99.9% of survival and with the Kung Flu, I have a 97.7% of survival? Oh the horror!!! In reality, I have a MUCH greater chance of dying from Influenza A/B because we are currently surrounded by the virus, it's everywhere.
    In the practical estimation for ďsurvivalĒ, we canít forget the likelihood of getting either, and then applying the survival rate on top of that.

    Whatís the probability of getting the flu compared with catching covid19? Iím not too worried about catching that. Iím not even all that worried about catching the flu. But itís way less likely that Iíll catch covid19 than the flu. Itís way less likely then, that I would die from the flu. But, Iíll prolly have to go to the store and stick up on some stuff before all the shelves are wiped out by
    I have spoken.
    If youíre woke you dig it.

  2. #1592
    KG1
    KG1 is offline
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    Iím more concerned about a pandemic panic.

  3. #1593
    Grandmaster jamil's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by KG1 View Post
    Iím more concerned about a pandemic panic.
    That seems to be the most likely.
    I have spoken.
    If youíre woke you dig it.

  4. #1594
    Slapshot OurDee's Avatar

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    Like new years is rookie drunk night, I think we are coming up on rookie prepper month.

  5. #1595
    Sharpshooter

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamil View Post
    In the practical estimation for ďsurvivalĒ, we canít forget the likelihood of getting either, and then applying the survival rate on top of that.

    Whatís the probability of getting the flu compared with catching covid19? Iím not too worried about catching that. Iím not even all that worried about catching the flu. But itís way less likely that Iíll catch covid19 than the flu. Itís way less likely then, that I would die from the flu. But, Iíll prolly have to go to the store and stick up on some stuff before all the shelves are wiped out by
    I believe you have just hit on the reason this thread has 1600 posts and weíre going back and forth like this:
    R0 of the flu is 1.3-1.6
    R0 of Covid19 is 2.3-3.7, maybe higher, with a lot of unknowns as far as itís cycle coming around again and itís life span on inanimate objects, etc.

  6. #1596
    Expert Super Bee's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by KG1 View Post
    Iím more concerned about a pandemic panic.

    This right here.

    I was reading this morning the governor of Washington state was thinking of calling up the National Guard. Really? Are we really there? I guess I am just not ready to lose my **** just yet.

  7. #1597
    Expert

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    Well time for a reality check. The mortality rate changes with the health of the infected. Can be as high as 14%. Makes sense. I better head back to the gym.

    https://www.acc.org/~/media/665AFA1E...14BE8D1213.pdf

  8. #1598
    Master

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    Quote Originally Posted by smokingman View Post
    I am going to ask to if you can explain your thought process as to why it sounds either unlikely and insane.
    I would like to understand this view point more clearly.So can you please explain you as an individual thoughts on why it is unlikely and or insane?


    I see it as the next logical step.

    Given that 10% of the global population are still locked in their homes in China.
    The Chinese follow instructions, for better or worse. IF they don't their police won't hesitate to take immediate physical action. Not really similar to the US at all.
    Given Italy has 14 cities under quarantine.
    Given cities in Singapore,South Korea and even Germany have been quarantined.
    I honestly don't know how those are going. In general those societies are densely populated. "Northern California" is diverse, variable population and includes rural areas that aren't quarantinable for all practical purposes.

    It's also not going to stop this virus to attempt to enact quarantines like that. It's going to create civil unrest.

    We do need to slow the virus for the sake of allowing healthcare to stay caught up with those that get the most ill; I've said that several times. If I'm in an area requested to self-quarantine, I'll cooperate. But there's not much of the US where you can actually enforce a quarantine over an entire region.

    If a region shows a rapidly-growing infection rate, a more practical option is to close schools, close airports, and ask people to stay home if possible. That will slow the spread and be more tolerated.

  9. #1599
    Le mot juste 2A_Tom's Avatar

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    Just FYI

    CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from flu. Interim estimates of 2019-2020 flu vaccine effectiveness were released last week.2 days ago


    Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report | CDC








  10. #1600
    Grandmaster smokingman's Avatar

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    I understand why the disease has caused such panic in China now.
    American College of Cardiology.
    ACC Clinical BulletinCardiac Implicationsof Novel Coronavirus(COVID-19)
    https://www.acc.org/~/media/665AFA1E...14BE8D1213.pdf


    https://www.sciencedaily.com/release...0131084238.htm

    In short. 48% of Americans have a 10.4% chance of death if they catch covid-19.

    I am not using fear,panic,or unreliable sources.The first is a health bulletin sent out.

    If you read it,it does get worse.

    "ē It may be reasonable to triage COVID-19 patients according to the presence ofunderlying cardiovascular, respiratory, renal, and other chronic diseases forprioritized treatment"

    Just thought I would share the information.


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