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  1. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirLiftsALatte View Post
    I have heard many times that you shouldn't try to time the market, but I also don't want to miss an opportunity to buy in while everything is "on sale". Of course, I was much more optimistic that the virus reaction over excessive and that there would be a quick recovery than I am now.

    I will add that I am a college student and have been holding off on investing because I didn't want to risk a downturn right when I might need that money for tuition or living expenses. I'm close enough to graduation now that I don't anticipate needing this money until I buy a house in 2-4 years.

    I will likely end up splitting the difference between your first and second suggestions.
    I'll give you a quick nugget from my past when I was in a similar situation and let you make of it what you will.

    I graduated college in 2006 and was thinking just like you. I bought my first house in 2009. If I had pushed all of my money into the market in 2006, I'd have been 10 ways of F'd in 2009 and would have never been able to buy a house (and miss all of this nice, juicy, first time buyer incentives that were being passed out like candy too). FWIW, my house was a repo (I bought from flippers that bought it as a repo, which was a giant mistake, and I didn't learn until later) and sold for $56k in 2008 in the second most expensive zip code in Allen County. By 2011, a house up the street similar to mine, but on way less property, sold for $21,000. The guy that flipped the $21k house sold it for $120k a year or so later.

    Doing anything on the market with less than a 5 year return window is considered short term. You ready to not buy that house in 2-4 years if things don't go your way?

    If you want to put your toes in and dabble just to learn, go for it. I've said somewhere up stream in this thread that most brokers don't charge fees anymore and you can buy a single share of a $0.10 stock if you want. Go spend $5, play for a year and see if you can turn it into $25? Sure! Chuck it all in and hope you get a house down payment back in 2-4 years? Ehhhh....

  2. #452
    Plinker SirLiftsALatte's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alpo View Post
    Have a safety fund. That is typically 6 mos worth of your expenses. If you have more, sit on it awhile longer. There isn't any fact base worth a dang that you can make adequate projections of what will happen over the next 2 years.

    If you have debt, consider paying it down with your excess funds. Credit cards. Car loans. Student debt. etc.
    I am debt free, and would keep at least 6 months expenses liquid. Agree that we don't know for sure that a sharp recovery is certain. I guess that I have been sitting on the sidelines while the stock market has soared since '15-'16ish and I've been regretting not getting on that ride back then. Just trying to make some wise decisions right now...

  3. #453
    Master nonobaddog's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by SirLiftsALatte View Post
    I am debt free, and would keep at least 6 months expenses liquid. Agree that we don't know for sure that a sharp recovery is certain. I guess that I have been sitting on the sidelines while the stock market has soared since '15-'16ish and I've been regretting not getting on that ride back then. Just trying to make some wise decisions right now...
    You are making wise decisions right now by getting some advice before jumping.... you're just seeking that advice from sources of unknown reliability.
    #35887

  4. #454
    Plinker HKFaninCarmel's Avatar

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    Question is going to be who will bounce back the best. I'm looking at Microsoft and Cisco. I can't imagine they are any worse than before?

  5. #455
    Plinker SirLiftsALatte's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwelhse View Post
    I'll give you a quick nugget from my past when I was in a similar situation and let you make of it what you will.

    I graduated college in 2006 and was thinking just like you. I bought my first house in 2009. If I had pushed all of my money into the market in 2006, I'd have been 10 ways of F'd in 2009 and would have never been able to buy a house (and miss all of this nice, juicy, first time buyer incentives that were being passed out like candy too). FWIW, my house was a repo (I bought from flippers that bought it as a repo, which was a giant mistake, and I didn't learn until later) and sold for $56k in 2008 in the second most expensive zip code in Allen County. By 2011, a house up the street similar to mine, but on way less property, sold for $21,000. The guy that flipped the $21k house sold it for $120k a year or so later.

    Doing anything on the market with less than a 5 year return window is considered short term. You ready to not buy that house in 2-4 years if things don't go your way?

    If you want to put your toes in and dabble just to learn, go for it. I've said somewhere up stream in this thread that most brokers don't charge fees anymore and you can buy a single share of a $0.10 stock if you want. Go spend $5, play for a year and see if you can turn it into $25? Sure! Chuck it all in and hope you get a house down payment back in 2-4 years? Ehhhh....
    Hmm interesting. Solid advice. For some more perspective, I was thinking that I would start with between $5-10k. Enough that (in my mind) a quick rebound to previous highs would be a nice ROI, but not so much that a prolonged recovery or even continued decline would be devastating. (Granted. If we continue to decline from here long term, that would be devastating on a national level.)

    I'm also not planning that this money would be my entire down payment on a future house, just that it would go towards it. Whether it's $10k sitting in the bank, or gets invested and turns into anywhere from $8-15k in 3 or 4 years is not likely to be life altering for me.

    My gut is telling me to bet on the upside of the USA economy, but politicians and headlines be how they be. I may just start with $1k and use hindsight to be happy or sad with my decision.


    Or I'll just spend it all on a bunch of guns n stuff...

  6. #456
    Plinker SirLiftsALatte's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by nonobaddog View Post
    You are making wise decisions right now by getting some advice before jumping.... you're just seeking that advice from sources of unknown reliability.
    Yeah... Trust me, y'all aren't my only source of wisdom. I've done reading and research on the subject periodically over the past few years. Just saw the thread and thought I'd jump in and get some opinions/advice.

    Right now I'm more scared of people's reactions to the Ch*na Virus than I am of the virus itself.

  7. #457
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    Quote Originally Posted by nonobaddog View Post
    You are making wise decisions right now by getting some advice before jumping.... you're just seeking that advice from sources of unknown reliability.
    Can confirm. I shouldn't even listen to me.

  8. #458
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirLiftsALatte View Post
    Hmm interesting. Solid advice. For some more perspective, I was thinking that I would start with between $5-10k. Enough that (in my mind) a quick rebound to previous highs would be a nice ROI, but not so much that a prolonged recovery or even continued decline would be devastating. (Granted. If we continue to decline from here long term, that would be devastating on a national level.)

    I'm also not planning that this money would be my entire down payment on a future house, just that it would go towards it. Whether it's $10k sitting in the bank, or gets invested and turns into anywhere from $8-15k in 3 or 4 years is not likely to be life altering for me.

    My gut is telling me to bet on the upside of the USA economy, but politicians and headlines be how they be. I may just start with $1k and use hindsight to be happy or sad with my decision.


    Or I'll just spend it all on a bunch of guns n stuff...
    I'll quote you a piece of advice that was given to me, so it's not mine so it's likely good, "Never put more into the market than you are prepared to lose".

    That's probably the most solid thing you're going to ever get. If you lost all you put in, would it effect your immediate plans? If so, how? Then what? etc?

  9. #459
    Grandmaster DoggyDaddy's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by maxwelhse View Post
    I'll quote you a piece of advice that was given to me, so it's not mine so it's likely good, "Never put more into the market than you are prepared to lose".

    That's probably the most solid thing you're going to ever get. If you lost all you put in, would it effect your immediate plans? If so, how? Then what? etc?
    That is very sound advice in any endeavor. To quote Janice Joplin, "Freedom's just another word, for nothin' left to lose."

  10. #460
    Master nonobaddog's Avatar

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    Yes, great idea. Gotta go play some Janice.

    #35887

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