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Thread: Coronavirus II

  1. #4271
    Grandmaster HoughMade's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by T.Lex View Post
    I'm not sure that last part - about it being lower - will end up to be true. Regardless, the only numbers we actually have are the numbers we actually have....
    I agree, but think of this this way- the number of deaths (using whatever method) is knowable, or at least knowable with a great degree of accuracy. Almost all die in hospitals and there, one thing they know is record keeping. Therefore, if they say, for instance, 15,000 people have died, that is a pretty accurate number.

    However, where does the denominator, those infected, come from? Is it possible that LESS people are infected than reported? I don't see how. Is the the "actually infected" number higher than the "known or suspected" number? Highly likely to a point approaching certainty, barring an unrealistically high number of of false positives.

    Therefore, at any point in time, the actual mortality rate is no higher than reported and likely will be much lower. I am not talking ultimately, overall, but at any point in time.
    ​Bullies suck. They also make you stronger.

  2. #4272
    Grandmaster hoosierdoc's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by T.Lex View Post
    Flat on "new" cases. Doc - are you using "new" as in "new infections" or "newly discovered." There are assumptions to both that deserve to be explicit. One of the problems is what kind of "new" case is it - one that is admitted to the hospital for severe respiratory problems or one that is the result of contact tracing.

    While "new" cases are flattening (whichever definition you want to use) the deaths are increasing. Sure there will be a lag of - what 5 to 10 days? - between diagnosis and resolution of a patient, but if the "new" cases only reflect what we're finding by community spread, then it kinda doesn't matter. The number of "new" cases doesn't actually reflect the spread.
    the only cases we know about are the diagnosed ones. I posted an article that some places may only be diagnosing 6% of their cases in the community because the vast majority have minimal to zero. but we certainly are aware of the deaths.

    hospital admissions in NYC are decreasing. they are flat to decreasing in indiana. isn't the way to tell if something is not worsening is you are seeing it slow down?

    https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page

    if my basement was leaking and I was doing things to mitigate it I'd say it's getting better when I saw less water coming through the wall, right? I'd say progress was being made and the worst is over.
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  3. #4273
    Grandmaster drillsgt's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipbennett View Post
    It makes a huge difference. Virus start spreading in November/December leading to 60K deaths (what might be representative of what really happened) is worlds different from Virus start spreading in February/March leading to 200K to 1MM+ deaths (what was largely a scare tactic).
    I've worked at two big ten universities so far and across the US at any given time there are around 350,000 Chinese students with many that travel home for the December break, plus those that travel back and forth in the manufacturing sector and I don't doubt at all it's been here.

  4. #4274
    Grandmaster T.Lex's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by hoosierdoc View Post
    if my basement was leaking and I was doing things to mitigate it I'd say it's getting better when I saw less water coming through the wall, right? I'd say progress was being made and the worst is over.
    If your basement is leaking and you start by taking buckets of water out as fast as it comes in, that's progress. If you get a pump and push water out faster than it is coming in. That's better.

    If you don't know where the leaks are, you're still only treating the symptom.

    You and I are in absolute agreement that there's evidence of things getting better.

    But, when we were testing fewer people, the mortality rate was about half what it is now. We are finding more and more positives, and as a percentage, more of those positives are dying. That is not flattening.

    We are also profylactically testing more people, like first responders, who are asymptomatic.
    Resident Warning Shot Statist.

  5. #4275
    Master nonobaddog's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ingomike View Post
    Our good doc posted recently that in over 40 studies since 1976 they have found 36,000- 57,000 die, per million, for each 1% of unemployment increase. That is a huge number that makes the current C-19 projection look puny. No you will not see it in overrun ICU's but these deaths are just as real as any coronavirus death.
    Those numbers seem pretty impossible to me. CDC says the annual death rate in the USA is about 8,000 to 8,900 deaths per million annually over the last 20 years or so. How could 1% unemployment cause a change that is 4 to 7 times the total death rate?

    Annual Death Rate
    8,638 deaths per million in 2017 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm
    #35887

  6. #4276
    Master nonobaddog's Avatar

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    Do any of our Docs have any thoughts on this?

    Fauci's Folly? Disease Expert: Lifting Lockdowns Would “Exterminate” Coronavirus
    https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...gtAFmLmq_c8fH4
    #35887

  7. #4277
    Grandmaster HoughMade's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by nonobaddog View Post
    Do any of our Docs have any thoughts on this?

    https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...gtAFmLmq_c8fH4
    Based strictly on theory and the assumption that once infected, one has "immunity" at least for a while, it makes sense. That is, once most people have had it, it will not be able to move through society quickly.

    However, there are some issues. First, there will be those outside of the groups who are most at risk who will have an idiosyncratic reaction to the disease and will die. In other words, there are a certain number of "young, otherwise healthy" persons who will die or get seriously ill. We have seen that already. Under that strategy, those would be "acceptable losses"...are they? Second, just how possible is it to shelter the (known) most vulnerable while this is going on? I have my doubts. Third, I think 4 weeks is optimistic.

    That being said, I hope that the powers that be are looking at all options.
    ​Bullies suck. They also make you stronger.

  8. #4278
    Mickey Mantle Trigger Time's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by HoughMade View Post
    They should have had a crystal ball? This was in February.
    Common sense says that if you are sick you shouldn't spread it to other people. That was way before China-virus was on the scene. I skipped family christmas and a couple other family events because of being sick. I didnt want to make anyone else sick.
    Wherever you go, there you are.

  9. #4279
    Mickey Mantle Trigger Time's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by nonobaddog View Post
    Do any of our Docs have any thoughts on this?



    https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnew...gtAFmLmq_c8fH4
    I think at this point this is what must be done.
    We have to open our economy.
    Keep nursing homes on lockdown, if you are very high risk stay isolated if possible.
    But just like old age and heart disease and kidney failure and diabetes, etc. Something is eventually going to get you. Sometimes young people die but old people always die. It's just the way of the world. We grow old and we die. But we must live!
    We must open the country back up.
    The numbers are nothing like what we had been scared into believing. Even from around the world the death rates are not high enough to shut the world down.
    Open it all back up.
    At first I was on board with all of this but now I am not. I think we have had the wool pulled over our eyes by someone and I think it's the same ones who engineered and released this virus on the world. .. ChiiiNa.
    Death is never fun. But it is part of life. The loses are acceptable compared to the alternative of a full on depression which will cause way more death than China virus ever could.
    I think if they dont start opening stuff back up sooner than later we need to start organizing some matches on some capitols
    Wherever you go, there you are.

  10. #4280
    Master nonobaddog's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Trigger Time View Post
    Common sense says that if you are sick you shouldn't spread it to other people. That was way before China-virus was on the scene. I skipped family christmas and a couple other family events because of being sick. I didnt want to make anyone else sick.
    Right! That has been pretty normal for decades both where I worked and personally.

    #35887

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