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  1. #1
    Grandmaster smokingman's Avatar

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    Congressional budget office GDP forecast and more....gdp -40% Q2

    • Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) is expected to decline by about 12 percent during the second quarter, equivalent to a decline at an annual rate of 40 percent for that quarter.
    • The unemployment rate is expected to average close to 14 percent during the second quarter.
    • Interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes are expected to average 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, during that quarter.

    For fiscal year 2020, CBO's early look at the fiscal outlook shows the following:

    • The federal budget deficit is projected to be $3.7 trillion.
    • Federal debt held by the public is projected to be 101 percent of GDP by the end of the fiscal year.

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

    Federal reserve GDP forecast is -42.8% for Q2
    https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/d...kingSlides.pdf

    Of course both forecast a miracle occurring in Q3 with an almost full recovery by the end of Q4 2020.

    The 101% of GDP to Federal debt is of course a brand new issue,but one that has built up over 60+ years of spending more than tax revenue.

    Inflating the fed note 2+% a year may have given us time for awhile. That is no longer going to work...not since we have crossed 101%.

  2. #2
    Grandmaster phylodog's Avatar

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    What happens now?
    There's lots of ________ on here who don't fit your particular stereotype, smearing us with goofball sophistry is what is out of line. It just makes gunowners look like *******s.

    - CarmelHP

  3. #3
    Grandmaster smokingman's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by phylodog View Post
    What happens now?
    No one can tell you that.

    A few results are fairly obvious though. The Social Security Administration for example may only purchase US Treasury notes,it will go broke well before forecast(see interest rates on those notes in my first post).

    Inflation. Not well controlled inflation. It will be more painful than anything we have experienced in our lifetimes.

    The Congressional Budget Office forecast in April 2018 that the ratio will rise to nearly 100% by 2028. We have already passed that.

    Given history I would not be shocked if in less than 10 years we have a new monetary system.Things like SDR currency already exist that replace the US Dollar is many transactions internationally. https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factshe...wing-Right-SDR

    Most do not realize but the Federal Reserve is not the United States first attempt at a central bank and currency.

    With current politics and the level of anger I would not take anything off the table either. From external to internal wars. History shows many times over what happens when people feel real economic pain and hunger. It does not usually end with the old systems still in place.

    More Nationalism the world over. Less trust at nearly all levels be it between citizens and governments or governments and each other.

    Lets hope the constitution and constitutional leaders guide us out of this mess,because whatever does will be in charge.


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