Guns & ammo price bubble

[Cpt Caveman]

So do you folks think we've reached the apex of the price bubble on firearms and ammunition yet?
I kinda think we may have gotten there finally. I'm thinking folks are gonna be busier here in the summer with other things and the prices are gonna start to drop after a while. Also folks only have so much money to spend.There will probably be another little shelf once the initial drop starts where some folks start buying again.
Hey , a guy can be hopeful can't he?

 

[Bubbajms]

It's already starting to drop in a lot of places..

My dad, in Ohio, just picked up a case (500 rounds) of 9mm for under $100 bucks, before tax.. he doesn't shoot .40 or .45, but he said they weren't much more, something like $115 for the .40 and $120 for the .45..

Of course, his local Walmart/Dicks/ETC have plenty of ammo..

Are Hoosiers hoarding stuff or what?

 

[bigg cheese]

<-- not hoarding, but need to practice. I'm a few rounds shy of 450 right now -- hardly a crisis

 

[Principal Skinr]

Many Hoosiers are hoarding. I'll see many posts of people saying a Wal Mart had something like 10 boxes of WWB 9mm, and then say they bought all of them. I've got plenty, but I like to buy a box when I see it for a good deal. I don't ever clean anyone out, unless it is the last box.

I'm not betting on demand slacking, but supply should catch up at some point. There is no benefit to ammo or gun companies to do anything other than maximize production, while demand is hot. It is quick and easy to slow production if demand drops, so its bad business if they don't ramp it up. It is simple capitalism, until Obama screws with it.

 

[repair]

I heard a rep talking the other day that said that a lot of the companies had Dec scheduled for shut down and even when demand spiked there was nothing that they could do about it, that is one reason that demand out paced supply.

When I was at the last 1500 I could move around and I saw twice as many ARs and parts as the one before it and people only have so much cash that they can spend on guns.

Look at how many ARs are showing up on our board, with this said I don't think that prices for certain guns will come down for many months if not years and this is if our rulers don't screw with some kind of a ban.

My

 

[CulpeperMM]

there is no ammo available on Cabelas.com or MidwayUSA.com in popular handgun (9mm or 40cal) or many rifle calibers (223, 7.62 Nato, 7mm Mauser). the lack of supply of ammo justifies the higher prices, IMO.

i wouldn't mind buying a 9mm pistol for my wife, but with there being no ammo, there isn't much point is there?

the question i have, is this just huge demand sucking up all excess supply, or has the supply chain been severed to private purchasers? Is there a negative intervention going on by our paid representatives/oppressors?

 

[42769vette]

i think its on the downward swing aswell. a few months ago you could have sold any ar nomatter kind and price for 1000. now people are passing on the 1000 dollar ar that was 650 a year ago.

 

[ChrisK]

I think in the AR realm, the lower tier guns will fall in price but the upper tier will stay about the same. I'm not going to get into the argument of where each one falls into but here is a chart that sums it up pretty well.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pwswheghNQsEuEhjFwPrgTA&hl=en

 

[shooter521]

I'm not going to get into the argument of where each one falls into but here is a chart that sums it up pretty well.

Oh, NOW you've gone and done it...

Waiting on melensdad...

 

[RogerB]

Oh, NOW you've gone and done it...

Waiting on melensdad...

yup

 

[clt46910]

I have noticed prices starting to drop as well. I think the ammo prices will drop faster then gun prices. But they will all drop back to more normal within the next year unless a new AWB of some type goes into affect.

I really don't see that happening in the next two years. The last one hurt the Dems bad the next election. A lot of them already said they would not support it.

 

[ChrisK]

Just got this as an E-Mail from Kieslers:

Since 2003/2004, I have sent four letters regarding ammunition shortages. This is the fifth. Enclosed with this letter is supporting data about these shortages.
Two weeks prior to the November election, ammunition shortages were beginning to ease. Some hard to get 40cal & 223cal in ball and frangible had gone from 14-16 months delivery to 90 days. That’s over.
Kiesler’s has been notified by several U.S. manufacturers that orders placed now will likely be delivered late this fall or into 2010. There has been no increase in state contract prices, but poor deliveries are going to persist.
We suggest that departments wait until their ammunition is in stock before scheduling a training date, and placing your orders now may eliminate a problem in the future. This is not a sales gimmick.
The micro-stamping and possibility of a 500% to 1000% increase in Federal Excise Tax is driving this shortage. At this moment, micro-stamping has not been perfected, but the demand on ammunition manufacturers is unprecedented since WW II. Sales to law enforcement officers are at historical highs, and the public is afraid of both taxes, availability, costs and micro-stamping.
With the U.S. Government hiring more Federal agents, huge sales of AR-15’s to the police community, and the stimulus package promising more police officers – shortages could be ugly.
Currently, our normal inventory of many millions of rounds has been 95% depleted. Shipments will have to come from the factory; that’s why we advise you to order soon.
Thanks for being a Kiesler customer.
Most Sincerely,

Douglas M. Kiesler
CEO/Owner, Kiesler Police Supply
2802 Sable Mill Road
Jeffersonville, IN 47130

For the full story on the ammunition shortage, visit this link:
Demand for ammo is causing supply shortages - ESPN

 

[1 old 0311]

The election fears seem to be slowing down. Hope rational thinking, and pricing, return.

 

[boozoo]

I thought it was pretty amusing that with some of my friends giving me grief over my old surplus arms, I'm able to find Makarov and 7.62x25, while they're left scratching their butts looking for 380, 9, and 45.

But I'm not entirely amused since I'm looking for those, too... I just don't tell THEM that. ;-)

 

[CulpeperMM]

Just got this as an E-Mail from Kieslers: ...

thanks for this

though passage of any AWB is not likely, the government is or will be using other means to limit availability to private customers. and there is the very real possibility that the state department could try to impose firearms ban via treaty w/ Mexico. This has been the method that many European nations have used to push gun control. Citizens have lost firearms due to EU treaties with new entrants.

 

[shooter521]

The micro-stamping and possibility of a 500% to 1000% increase in Federal Excise Tax is driving this shortage.

In short, hysteria is driving the shortage, and people being willing to pay outrageously high prices are keeping them inflated.

 

[Turtle]

I bought most of mine before the elections...... I seen this commin just didnt realize it would happen so FAST.

 

[csaws]

Man it is amazing that the controversy is sooo high about that spreadsheet.

 

[FordMan08]

Walmart in Franklin has 25Auto and 357sig pistol ammo....thats it.
BALLWASHIN!!

 

[ChrisK]

Man it is amazing that the controversy is sooo high about that spreadsheet.

Why the controversy? If you are a high volume shooter or you like and respect a higher attention to detail you look more to the left side of the spreadsheet. You understand that when you do, the price goes up much higher. There is nothing wrong with buying at the lower end. Most people that do don't run thousands of rounds thru the gun. When I make a purchase I buy the best that I can afford. Both of my AR's are more to the left side of the spreadsheet. (Noveske Low Pro and S&W MP15) It would not bother me to own a OLY. My next two that I am building will have Stag lowers , One with a BCM upper and the other a Noveske.