America Doesn't Actually Lead the World in Mass Shootings

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Even when we use coding choices that are most charitable to Lankford, such as excluding any cases of insurgencies or battles over territory, his estimate of the US share of shooters falls from 31 percent to 1.43 percent. It also accounts for 2.1 percent murders, and 2.88 percent of their attacks. All these are much less than the United States’ 4.6 percent share of the population.

https://nypost.com/2018/08/30/america-doesnt-actually-lead-the-world-in-mass-shootings/

 

[Ark]

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/08/27/640323347/the-school-shootings-that-werent

The "data" on mass shootings and school shootings is rapidly collapsing.

I wonder how much harder the data slants when you start including things like mass stabbings, suicide bombs, truck bombs, vehicle attacks, etc. If America is an unbearable hellscape of rampaging mass shooters and violence, I must admit to scratching my head over why so many people from all over the planet are clamoring to move here.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Wait, culture matters more than access to guns? Well I'm utterly shocked...

 

[Expat]

So the gun grabbing left have been trying to mislead the public? That is shocking.

 

[mammynun]

https://www.npr.org/sections/ed/2018/08/27/640323347/the-school-shootings-that-werent

 

[actaeon277]

Wait, culture matters more than access to guns? Well I'm utterly shocked...

 

[BigRed]

I wonder if there are certain cultures in the United States that are characterized by a disproportionate level of violent crime and what the violent crime statistics in the United States would be if the statistics were bifurcated.

 

[actaeon277]

Yes.
Criminal culture.
They are most likely to be "victims" of gun violence.
Not all.
Just, most likely.

 

[rhino]

John Lott = Genius

 

[Tanfodude]

Hmmm......I doubt Switzerland is higher than USA. This article smells fishy.

 

[rhino]

Hmmm......I doubt Switzerland is higher than USA. This article smells fishy.

Think per capita.

John Lott is meticulous with his research and data analysis. Very capable anti-gun rights people have been trying to poke holes in his work for a lot of years and consistently failing (and sometimes quietly conceding that he's correct). It's like the numbers he cited come from another work or something that will be released soon. Studying that should answer some questions. We could also ask him directly to explain further.

 

[EPeter213]

Hmmm......I doubt Switzerland is higher than USA. This article smells fishy.

As Rhino indicated, the issue with Switzerland is absolute population size. The Swiss population is roughly 1/10th that of Germany at roughly 8.2 million. They also have a high percentage of foreign traffic (roughly 2million ) It only takes a few incidents to artificially skew their percentage.

It's kind of like saying 1 in 10 people are likely to get a certain type of cancer. If your family of 4 has one person affected, Your family suddenly has a 25% rate, therefore your family is at more than double the normal risk! (Not really, but that's my point. Smaller population = smaller sample = greater margin of error.)

EDIT: For comparison, New York City - 2016 population was 8.5Million

 

[Tanfodude]

Switzerland's last mass shooting was in 2001. So that stat still skewed up the rate? As a country, their murder rate is near zero (~0.5). How does that even compute in per capita? I've been in that country and it is the safest country I've every in to. Yes, I know about the per capita as it makes Indianapolis look bad because of that. But Switzerland, no, I still find that hard to believe regardless of his reputation. But will look forward to the release of his study.