Why does everyone say the firearms market crashed

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  • snorko

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    Seems like everyone you talk to laments the collapse of the firearms market since the election. Dealer after dealer bemoans the slow down. This seemed to be true, especially as everyone was saying so. But I was doing some research for an appraisal I am doing and graphed out NICS checks from 2012 to 2019. For 2019 I calculated the average percentage of annual sales in the first three months from previous years and used that to annualize Q1 2019. The graph is below. Ignore the $, the numbers are the number of checks run.

    attachment.php


    So yeah, 2016 was a big blip up, but but the overall trend has been a steady uphill run. Thus I have to wonder, are things as bad as everyone seems to think?
     

    WebSnyper

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    Seems like everyone you talk to laments the collapse of the firearms market since the election. Dealer after dealer bemoans the slow down. This seemed to be true, especially as everyone was saying so. But I was doing some research for an appraisal I am doing and graphed out NICS checks from 2012 to 2019. For 2019 I calculated the average percentage of annual sales in the first three months from previous years and used that to annualize Q1 2019. The graph is below. Ignore the $, the numbers are the number of checks run.

    attachment.php


    So yeah, 2016 was a big blip up, but but the overall trend has been a steady uphill run. Thus I have to wonder, are things as bad as everyone seems to think?

    Might not just be transfers, but the prices that one can get for things, being considered? i.e. does gun store have to sell at a lower margin per sale than during the market height?
     

    indykid

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    I think they just got spoiled by the record sales during the obama regime. While it would be nice for any business to see month after month of record sales, it is unsustainable.
     

    cordex

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    Seems to me that there are a lot more gun stores today than there were a few years ago too. That doesn't help the dealer's perception of the market.
     

    justacog

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    I figure this is just the bean counters complaining about not having constant growth. It doesn't matter if you're doing 5-10M more sales than you were in the prior five years if that higher amount is a steady state. The pie got bigger but isn't continuing to grow so Wall Street can't pocket their 10% growth projections on their 40x leverage. You see the same constant improvement nonsense in sweatshops where they expect you to continue to go faster and faster until your fingers burst into flames from the friction; then they declare bankruptcy and reform with another batch of suckers. Just keep doing a good job and ignore the financial press; things are just fine.
     

    DRob

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    There were a lot of first-time buyers while Hillary loomed on the horizon. People were afraid if they didn't get a gun then, they would never be able to if she were elected. And a large number of them were women whom I think are less likely to be repeat buyers as often as men. There are still lots of people thinking about getting a gun but just haven't "pulled the trigger" yet. I know several people who are in that particular boat. Eventually some will. In the meantime, sales aren't slumping, they just aren't setting new records like they were for a while. Just my :twocents:
     

    Expat

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    I have wondered the same thing snorko. Everyone is singing the blues but then you heard at the end of 2018 about NICS setting a record one month. It seems contradictory. I asked one of the gun stores and they said they were doing okay but nowhere close to what it had been. So I don't know what is going on.
     

    d.kaufman

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    I think from the gun shop owners and even the manufacturers standpoint its more about profit margin. The same Ar the gun shop could sell for $600-700 is now going for $400. Deep discounts are keeping us Gun guys and gals buying, but the decrease in profits have the manufacturers and retailers singing the blues.
     

    Fallschirmjaeger

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    Maybe we need another Dem in office to spike sales again?


    (Kidding please dont throw trash at me)

    Not throwing trash (or anything) at you---but you are correct. Nothing will guarantee a spike in gun sales faster than if any of the whack-job Dems who've declared their candidacy is elected in 2020, and if they have one or both houses of Congress.
     

    churchmouse

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    I have wondered the same thing snorko. Everyone is singing the blues but then you heard at the end of 2018 about NICS setting a record one month. It seems contradictory. I asked one of the gun stores and they said they were doing okay but nowhere close to what it had been. So I don't know what is going on.

    Have you tried to sell anything lately.
     

    Sigblitz

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    I looked at a couple of Colts in November. I was ready to buy in February and each gun went up $50. The dealer told me Colt raised their prices. So now I'm looking for a used one.
     

    Sigblitz

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    Guns we have been exporting (Colt) have been ending up where the State Department doesn't want them, so we're probably getting hit for their loss. And some we have imported (Sig Germany) were ending up where Germany doesn't want them, getting shipped out of the states without even opening the boxes. AK's going to Mexican Cartel through straw purchases is also being clamped down on. So a few brands are politically inflated and we're paying more.
     

    AdamP123

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    It is because there are a bazillion AR makers that started up, trying to cash in on the craze after 2012. It is also why ARs are so cheap. It didn't crash. It's just that there are so many rifles (ARs in particular) being cranked out by so many companies.
     

    snorko

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    Have you tried to sell anything lately.

    Yep, and depending on what it is things are selling well. The oversupply and price drops in the retail market are killing the used market except for those things you can't get new (see next quote).

    I'm waiting for the non hole s&w market to crash along with colt pythons/anacondas.

    Holding my breath I am not.
     

    AdamP123

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    The oversupply and price drops in the retail market are killing the used market except for those things you can't get new (see next quote).

    Pretty much. I have sold a few of my LWRCs over the past year and I was lucky to get $1,500+ for each of them. They were all new or lightly used and they were all more than $2K new.
     

    Ingomike

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    First some facts, the manufacturers, distributors, and dealers all presumed a Hilliary win and stocked up for that presumption. Gun buyers historically buy different guns when a Republican is in vs a Democrat. When a Dem is in, like what happened under Obama, people were stocking up on Smiths, Glocks, and budget AR's. With a Rep in buyers prefer higher end product.

    Buyers were looking for higher end stuff while the industry was trying to dump the lower end they stocked up on.
     
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