Pretty much all of us have seen the tables or charts showing total NICS checks over time and how they have gone up or down. Barack Obama was repeated identified as "salesman of the month", "salesman of the year", and "salesman of all time" based on these counts. While that is still true, the NICS counts that you have been commonly viewing have become less and less useful since 2016 for even estimating firearm sales.
The problem: NICS checks are being used more and more for things not related to firearm purchases and license issuance. For example, NICS checks are rerun in some states when you buy ammunition, do private transfers, etc, (are they done at traffic stops???). A more detailed breakdown shows that in many states and for the nation, more NICS checks are done for "license checks/rechecks" than for all purchases combined. In the first nine months of 2019 and in 12 months of 2015 (last year before license "rechecks" started):
Constitutional carry states generally have lower license checks and a couple even had 0% license checks.
Unfortunately, as states implement additional NICS checks for all kinds of non-gun purchase and license issuance activities, the value of using the commonly quoted NICS checks numbers for even estimating gun sales becomes less and less useful. The commonly used first FBI report on national statistics by month/year has this inflation. The second FBI report on state statistics by month has this inflation. You have to go to the third or fourth FBI reports on detailed state statistics before you can see the discrepancy. I wonder if recent estimates of 300+ million firearms in private hands or recent high gun sales estimates aren't substantially off because of this flaw.
Bottom line: We've always known that NICS was never an ideal way to get an estimate of firearm sales. Unfortunately, it is becoming even less useful now.
Sources: NICS Checks Reveal Americans’ Changing Gun Purchasing Preferences, FBI NICS reports
The problem: NICS checks are being used more and more for things not related to firearm purchases and license issuance. For example, NICS checks are rerun in some states when you buy ammunition, do private transfers, etc, (are they done at traffic stops???). A more detailed breakdown shows that in many states and for the nation, more NICS checks are done for "license checks/rechecks" than for all purchases combined. In the first nine months of 2019 and in 12 months of 2015 (last year before license "rechecks" started):
| State | 2019 License check/recheck | License % | 2019 Purchases | 2015 License check/recheck | License % | 2015 Purchases |
| Indiana | 924,700 | 77% | 275,100 | 639,300 | 60% | 430,300 |
| Illinois | 3,196,300 | 92% | 276,700 | 838,000 | 67% | 408,600 |
| Ohio | 112,300 | 26% | 324,100 | 95,300 | 13% | 624,000 |
| US+territories | 11,038,000 | 56% | 8,559,400 | 8,782,000 | 40% | 13,385,100 |
Unfortunately, as states implement additional NICS checks for all kinds of non-gun purchase and license issuance activities, the value of using the commonly quoted NICS checks numbers for even estimating gun sales becomes less and less useful. The commonly used first FBI report on national statistics by month/year has this inflation. The second FBI report on state statistics by month has this inflation. You have to go to the third or fourth FBI reports on detailed state statistics before you can see the discrepancy. I wonder if recent estimates of 300+ million firearms in private hands or recent high gun sales estimates aren't substantially off because of this flaw.
Bottom line: We've always known that NICS was never an ideal way to get an estimate of firearm sales. Unfortunately, it is becoming even less useful now.
Sources: NICS Checks Reveal Americans’ Changing Gun Purchasing Preferences, FBI NICS reports
