I've gone into a little more detail on my early look at mass shootings and spent a good many more hours searching for events. I currently have a list of 90 mass shootings (defined for this purpose as 4 or more people killed by gunshot wound by one or more people in a relatively short period of time--somewhat subjective there--in one event or a closely connected series of related events, which will include most "spree killers") from 1949 to the present. The list only includes events in the United States.
The first thing is the overall trend for these killings. First, there are the number of such shootings per year:
The 5 year average helps show a clear and (to me) surprising trend. First, the number of events was relatively flat up until 1993 or 1994 when their was a sharp rise which peaked in 1997 (year with largest number of events) to 1999 (year where the 5 year average peaked). After that, the number of events fell to slightly higher than previously (previously, 0, 1 or 2 events, after the peak 1, 2, or 3 events). We're still fairly early into 2009 so that may be the start of a new peak but more data (which I could wish were not available because of such things not happening) would be needed to assess that.
We get a similar picture looking at the total number killed in mass shootings per year:
The trend here is more uncertain because of the great variation in the number killed per event. A single University of Texas or Virginia Tech can alter the averages drastically.
Some interesting trends come from looking at where these events occur:
This is a combined list where I've divided the events based on the possibility of armed resistance. "Guns allowed" are areas with "shall issue" CCW and where there are no specific strictures on the location of the event in question. "Guns unlikely" are either "may issue" venues or places where the killer had good reason to believe that no armed resistance was likely. "No guns" are either states where concealed carry was forbidden, "gun free zones" such as schools or Federal property, or a couple of really bad cases with a parent killing their kids (I finished this late last night and my dreams were not pleasant)--basically places where the killer(s) could be absolutely certain that there would be no armed law abiding citizens.
To help make things clear, I've separated out the three categories into separate charts:
One thing that becomes quickly clear is that "guns allowed" incidents are vanishingly rare and have few people killed (most barely rising to the "mass shooting" level). The majority of events have been at "guns unlikley" type venues, but that's been very close to a "default" position for most of the time and places covered here, so I'm not sure that that's really significant.
The real eye opener is the dramatic rise in "no guns" events starting in the early 90s and continuing on to the present. Interestingly enough, however, there was a gap in such shootings from July of 1999 to March of 2005 ("no guns" areas) and December of 2002 to March of 2006 ("Guns unlikely" areas), during a substantial portion of the Bush administration.
The upshot of this is that the vast majority of events happen in places where private citizens are restricted (either by law or by situation) from being armed for self defense. A total of 9 events happened at places which were both "shall issue" and where there were not other circumstances that would ensure that potential victims were disarmed. A total of 89 events took place where such restrictions were present. The restrictions, of course, did not stop the killers. Note also that the increases in such shootings has almost entirely happened in places where the ability of people to arm themselves for defense has been restricted with a very dramatic rise in mass shootings in "gun free zones."
The first thing is the overall trend for these killings. First, there are the number of such shootings per year:
The 5 year average helps show a clear and (to me) surprising trend. First, the number of events was relatively flat up until 1993 or 1994 when their was a sharp rise which peaked in 1997 (year with largest number of events) to 1999 (year where the 5 year average peaked). After that, the number of events fell to slightly higher than previously (previously, 0, 1 or 2 events, after the peak 1, 2, or 3 events). We're still fairly early into 2009 so that may be the start of a new peak but more data (which I could wish were not available because of such things not happening) would be needed to assess that.
We get a similar picture looking at the total number killed in mass shootings per year:
The trend here is more uncertain because of the great variation in the number killed per event. A single University of Texas or Virginia Tech can alter the averages drastically.
Some interesting trends come from looking at where these events occur:
This is a combined list where I've divided the events based on the possibility of armed resistance. "Guns allowed" are areas with "shall issue" CCW and where there are no specific strictures on the location of the event in question. "Guns unlikely" are either "may issue" venues or places where the killer had good reason to believe that no armed resistance was likely. "No guns" are either states where concealed carry was forbidden, "gun free zones" such as schools or Federal property, or a couple of really bad cases with a parent killing their kids (I finished this late last night and my dreams were not pleasant)--basically places where the killer(s) could be absolutely certain that there would be no armed law abiding citizens.
To help make things clear, I've separated out the three categories into separate charts:
One thing that becomes quickly clear is that "guns allowed" incidents are vanishingly rare and have few people killed (most barely rising to the "mass shooting" level). The majority of events have been at "guns unlikley" type venues, but that's been very close to a "default" position for most of the time and places covered here, so I'm not sure that that's really significant.
The real eye opener is the dramatic rise in "no guns" events starting in the early 90s and continuing on to the present. Interestingly enough, however, there was a gap in such shootings from July of 1999 to March of 2005 ("no guns" areas) and December of 2002 to March of 2006 ("Guns unlikely" areas), during a substantial portion of the Bush administration.
The upshot of this is that the vast majority of events happen in places where private citizens are restricted (either by law or by situation) from being armed for self defense. A total of 9 events happened at places which were both "shall issue" and where there were not other circumstances that would ensure that potential victims were disarmed. A total of 89 events took place where such restrictions were present. The restrictions, of course, did not stop the killers. Note also that the increases in such shootings has almost entirely happened in places where the ability of people to arm themselves for defense has been restricted with a very dramatic rise in mass shootings in "gun free zones."
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Democrats cause mass shootings!
