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Thread: Background checks save lives?

  1. #11
    INGO Homebrewer JettaKnight's Avatar

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    Another source with a little more details.

    ID Check Repeal Prompts Spike In Murders, Study Finds : NPR

    Even with a grain of salt it's still worth discussing.

  2. #12
    Grandmaster Bunnykid68's Avatar

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    50-60 more murders in a given year would be smaller than a grain of salt in comparison to the number of people in that state
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulF View Post
    The bunny is legion. It cannot be banned.
    I cut grass for a living

  3. #13
    Expert bingley's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamil View Post
    Before you accept it, ask yourself whas the study performed honestly? Who paid for it? Did the funders have agendas?
    Unless you're studying the development of fungus in your refrigerator, all studies need a funder. There is nothing as a politically neutral funder. If you think that the funders having a political agenda is enough to dismiss the study, then you can use this argument to dismiss all scientific and humanistic studies in the 20th century.

    You need to look at the merit of the study first. I'm just trying to be fair here. It seems that nobody here has actually read the study itself. News media often misreports research results.

    Quote Originally Posted by jamil View Post
    What other studies support or conflict with this result? What, exactly does this study imply? We don't have a PTP law in Indiana. Does it mean the murder rate would decrease if we adopt such a law? Would California's Murder rate skyrocket if they adopted Indiana's gun laws. After California adopted all the nutty new laws recently, if it's true that stricter gun laws = fewer murders, we shuld expect their rates to nosedive.
    These are intelligent questions. I'd ask the same questions of the study. Incidentally, I'm not in agreement with your last statement. Crime rate, being a product of many factors, can never be correlated to gun ownership rate so easily. From what I tell from the article, it doesn't seem that the study says "stricter gun laws = fewer murders."

  4. #14
    Master JeremiahJohnson's Avatar

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    One state? Why one state - Missouri? Because it seems to fit your conclusion? I believe 38 states have similar background checks - why not include all the data? Maybe it doesn't fit the preconceived conclusion?

    Lott was on Cam last night and brought up these same problems with this "study". No critical analysis at all. No one asking why all 38 states weren't included. No one asking why, if we're going state by state, wasn't the same consideration given to the other 37 and the results listed side-by-side. You know why. Lott did the work and guess what - none of the other 37 states corroborate the conclusion drawn from Missouri.
    NRA Lifetime Member - ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ.

  5. #15
    Expert bingley's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by JeremiahJohnson View Post
    One state? Why one state - Missouri? Because it seems to fit your conclusion? I believe 38 states have similar background checks - why not include all the data? Maybe it doesn't fit the preconceived conclusion?
    Or maybe they didn't have the money? 38 states could mean 38 times the time in data collection. Perhaps some of us pro-gun folks need to donate money so they can do a more comprehensive study and get evidence as to whether background checks influence crime rate. I mean, we've got arguments either way, but they're all theoretical. Who knows how things actually play out out there?

    Anyway, did you read the study? I haven't. I don't know why people have closed off their minds.

  6. #16
    Master JeremiahJohnson's Avatar

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    The study isn't that cost prohibitive, you just have to want to do it. My bad on the numbers: actually 17 states have mandated universal background checks. The rest of the data is discussed here:

    What does Missouri show about the benefits from universal background checks?: Nothing really, The forthcoming Journal of Urban Health study by the Bloomberg School of Public Health
    NRA Lifetime Member - ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ.

  7. #17
    Master JeremiahJohnson's Avatar

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    Here's the table:

    http://crimepreventionresearchcenter...18-1.18-PM.png

    By the way, you'll notice Indiana listed - we are the only state to look at the data from our own state, determine it's useless as a crime prevention tool and repeal the law.
    NRA Lifetime Member - ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ.

  8. #18
    Grandmaster Bunnykid68's Avatar

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    Indiana used to have universal background checks for all private handgun transactions for many years, has crime gone up since it was repealed?
    Quote Originally Posted by PaulF View Post
    The bunny is legion. It cannot be banned.
    I cut grass for a living

  9. #19
    Shooter

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    Even if there is a correlative relationship, there certainly can't be proven a causal relationship. Moreover, I find the possibility of a correlational relationship possible, but not likely given how many other factors are at play here. A system as complex as society has so many variables that to claim one source of anything has a causal effect on anything within that system is just impossible to claim. If I wanted, I could correlate the temperature of Ulan Bator, Mongolia to the price of oranges in Florida. Co-relation is fairly meaningless and causality fairly impossible to establish. Statistics is a very precise machine which one of a thousand things being the slightest bit off will totally and completely break and invalidate the results obtained by utilizing it. If the article's editor can properly explain to me what p-value was utilized to derive significance and explain why the null hypothesis was rejectable and can provide proof of a truly random sample and can explain their experimental design and methodology, then I might - might - see what they have to say. Until then, like so many other "scientific" studies before it, and more yet to be born, right into the trash can it goes.

  10. #20
    Expert

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    The analyses controlled for changes in policing, incarceration, burglaries, unemployment, poverty, and other state laws adopted during the study period that could affect violent crime
    I especially like this part. I would like to read the actual study and not just articles on it. They can throw around all of the statistics they want in regards to % increase in this and % increase in that. Most intelligent people understand that those numbers can be skewed by their "analysis control". It will be interesting to see if any good peer reviews come of this.


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