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  1. #1931
    INGO Clown printcraft's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by T.Lex View Post
    I don't see how Iran can "run roughshod" in an offensive war. They don't have the manpower, materiel, nor the industry to build more weapons as the existing ones are destroyed.

    Defensive war? Sure.

    But even with some sort of coalition, they don't have enough allies in the Islamic world to field a big enough army to take and hold significant territory.

    Nukes as force multiplier? Maybe. But that's literally scorched earth. They won't want to hold any territory gained by that choice. And in return, they'd reap the fiery whirlwind right back.

    Now, with help from Russia... maybe. But at that point, it isn't a war with Iran; it is a war with Russia.
    I think kut is referring to their proxies AKA: every islamic terrorist group operating over in that part of the world.



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  2. #1932
    Grandmaster T.Lex's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by printcraft View Post
    I think kut is referring to their proxies AKA: every islamic terrorist group operating over in that part of the world.
    Ok, but even then... if that was going to work, it would already be working.

    Every attack by a terrorist group reveals information about that terrorist group - like its very existence. Police and military agencies have gotten pretty good about tracking those people down.

    Part of the problem with that calculus is that not "every islamic terrorist group" is allied with Iran. Hezbollah, sure. What could they possibly start doing that they wouldn't already do?

    "No no no, don't suicide bomb that target yet. Let's wait until Iran needs us in a proxy war."

    The Shia'a/Sunni divide will loom large in any military scenario in that area.
    Resident Warning Shot Statist.

  3. #1933
    Grandmaster Kutnupe14's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by T.Lex View Post
    I don't see how Iran can "run roughshod" in an offensive war. They don't have the manpower, materiel, nor the industry to build more weapons as the existing ones are destroyed.

    Defensive war? Sure.

    But even with some sort of coalition, they don't have enough allies in the Islamic world to field a big enough army to take and hold significant territory.

    Nukes as force multiplier? Maybe. But that's literally scorched earth. They won't want to hold any territory gained by that choice. And in return, they'd reap the fiery whirlwind right back.

    Now, with help from Russia... maybe. But at that point, it isn't a war with Iran; it is a war with Russia.
    I'm not talking about against the United States. I'm talking about in-region. An attack on Iran would see them mobilize, most likely shutting down the Persian Gulf, and settling scores with regional enemies. I'd expect anyplace from Afghanistan to Israel to be fair game. We don't have enough assets in-theater to prevent Iran from taking out pretty good swaths of the ME, or at the very least destroying a significant part of oil production.
    I Have the Worst Crew Ever

  4. #1934
    Grandmaster T.Lex's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kutnupe14 View Post
    I'm not talking about against the United States. I'm talking about in-region. An attack on Iran would see them mobilize, most likely shutting down the Persian Gulf, and settling scores with regional enemies. I'd expect anyplace from Afghanistan to Israel to be fair game. We don't have enough assets in-theater to prevent Iran from taking out pretty good swaths of the ME, or at the very least destroying a significant part of oil production.
    Well, several of those countries - and Jordan immediately comes to mind - can handle their own business. I have far less faith in the readiness of the Iranian military than you do.

    Even asymmetric, unless Russia intervened on their behalf - which, again, would fundamentally change the scope of the situation - they would be rendered ineffective pretty quickly. Box them in.
    Resident Warning Shot Statist.

  5. #1935
    Grandmaster Dead Duck's Avatar

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    We can still strike Iran without using our military.

    It's still early yet. They need to squirm for a week or two. They'll set up some defenses and move things around. But when they start moving toward their contingency plan, that's when things will get interesting.




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  6. #1936
    Grandmaster DoggyDaddy's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kutnupe14 View Post
    The Iranians are calling the president's bluff. They're betting that he doesn't have the stomach for a fight. It's risky, but it makes a whole lot of sense. If Trump opens up on Iran, Iran is going to run roughshod over the Middle East, making Israel venerable to attack, and sending the price of oil skyrocketing. And that's just in the Middle East. If something like that popped off, I wouldn't be surprised to see Putin start a major offensive in the Ukraine, now would I be surprised in Kim tested an ICBM. So yeah, I think the Iranians are calling the bluff.
    It reminded me more of OJ's book "If I Did It".

    "We absolutely had nothing to do with this attack, but if you retaliate against us (for not doing it?) there will be all out war!" Guilty conscience much?

  7. #1937
    Grandmaster BugI02's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kutnupe14 View Post
    The Iranians are calling the president's bluff. They're betting that he doesn't have the stomach for a fight. It's risky, but it makes a whole lot of sense. If Trump opens up on Iran, Iran is going to run roughshod over the Middle East, making Israel venerable to attack, and sending the price of oil skyrocketing. And that's just in the Middle East. If something like that popped off, I wouldn't be surprised to see Putin start a major offensive in the Ukraine, now would I be surprised in Kim tested an ICBM. So yeah, I think the Iranians are calling the bluff.
    Their economy is dependent on oil for 85% of its revenue and they have the same pinpoint vulnerability that the Saudis do. How much oil can they sell if all the pumping and loading gear is destroyed. They are desperate to get sanctions relief because the regime is tottering. If they want war, the Islamic Republic will not survive it nor will we need to hold the territory after we destroy their infrastructure

    Plenty of people have thought they were ready to take us on in minimally restricted warfare
    You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you

  8. #1938
    Grandmaster Kutnupe14's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by DoggyDaddy View Post
    It reminded me more of OJ's book "If I Did It".

    "We absolutely had nothing to do with this attack, but if you retaliate against us (for not doing it?) there will be all out war!" Guilty conscience much?
    I don't know about you, but if someone accused me of something, and after repeatedly telling them that I didn't do it, if they come at me, I' not going to simply take a beating.
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  9. #1939
    Expert NKBJ's Avatar

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    Somebody shor' do want a war real bad.

  10. #1940
    Grandmaster DoggyDaddy's Avatar

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kutnupe14 View Post
    I don't know about you, but if someone accused me of something, and after repeatedly telling them that I didn't do it, if they come at me, I' not going to simply take a beating.
    Even when all credible evidence pointed to you? Nobody is talking about making war against them but them. Think about it.

    And on a funny note, you just made an argument for Trump "striking back" at the media and democrats for repeatedly accusing him of things that have been proven to be false. The glaring difference is, Iran hasn't proven the accusations to be false.


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