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  1. #2691
    Grandmaster Leadeye's Avatar
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    You can buy all the "science" you can afford.

    Always follow the money.
    Where's the Kaboom? There was supposed to be an earth shattering Kaboom.

    Marvin the Martian

  2. #2692
    Marksman JAL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IndyDave1776 View Post
    Lovely. We are expected to be scared sh*tless of a wild-ass guess.
    No, not really. If you're expecting someone to tell you exactly how many hurricanes North America will have this year, and exactly when they will occur, that's not going to happen. If anyone did, that would be a completely wild-ass guess without any foundation whatsoever. He gives a decent layman's presentation about probability and probability distributions, and the complete lack of significance of two one year, followed by three the next and five in the year after that. It's not a trend, but all within the variation of what one would expect to see year-to-year. He's exactly correct that a trend that shifts the distribution requires a very long term accumulation of data over many years, and that the shift in the distribution, if there is one, will take decades to detect.

    The entire universe is not deterministic. It's stochastic, i.e. driven by probabilities, even down to an atomic level. There's a probability you will be killed by a car collision today, either as a pedestrian or in your vehicle, or even in your home when a Hummer runs amok and comes barreling through. There's also a probability a piece of a commercial airliner will fall off and hit you tomorrow. However minuscule it might be, it's not zero, unless it falls off and hits you today, resulting in your demise. There's even a probability you'll be the victim of a home invasion robbery some time tonight, and another one, ever so slightly higher of being the victim of one some time during the next month as it's a larger time window.

    All of your insurance premiums are driven by probabilities, and it's the same as placing a wager, whether it's life, accident, homeowner, auto, etc. You're betting bad stuff will happen sooner and more often. The insurance company is betting it won't happen as soon, and will occur less often. Think about it. It's also why a National Weather Service forecast is worthless much farther out than the next 72 hours. They make them for 10 days because the American public won't accept the reality that day 4-10 aren't worth the paper they're not printed on. They demand to know if it will rain on their picnic a week and a half from now and will not accept "we don't know" for an answer. After all, if we could send a man to the moon, why can't we predict the weather for a given city two weeks from today? Consulting the Farmer's Almanac that was published some time last year for this calendar year would be just as reliable.

    I've dealt professionally with probability events and predictions by examining the relevant processes, and the probabilities of various outcomes from those processes. One can make predictions, but they only have a confidence of something less than 100%, sometimes much less. The point I got from this is that you really cannot measure "global warming" effects, if there are any, except over many decades. Everything else is statistical variation about a mean. For those that didn't recognize it, the probability distribution he showed is a Poisson, it's not a Normal Bell Curve. It's an excellent example of a Poisson, and exactly what I'd expect to see when plotting numbers of hurricanes in North America per year over 50-100 years or so. What we're seeing this year is completely within the expected variation for number of hurricanes per year for the last 50 to 100 years.

    There are three kinds of models:
    • Descriptive - how does a system currently behave
    • Predictive - how will a system behave in the future
    • Prescriptive - what can be done to change current system behavior to a more desirable one in the future

    He's showing a very basic descriptive model of the probability of "x" number of hurricanes in North America for a given year with a simple and mostly non-quantitative explanation.

    John
    Last edited by JAL; 1 Week Ago at 16:41.
    United States Army, Retired

  3. #2693
    Many observations are stochastic, yes. And many things are not necessarily stochastic, yet we do not yet understand the mechanisms behind them. At the same time, some things are attributed to anthropogenic climate change, when they in fact are controlled by mechanisms of which we do have some understanding. In the case of predicting an active hurricane season for 2017, the drivers are mechanisms such as AMO in particular (and also interactions with PDO, ENSO, etc.).

    Do we understand the mechanisms well enough to create predictive models? Doubtful. Do we understand them well enough to make descriptive correlations? Often, yes.

  4. #2694
    Grandmaster Thor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jamil View Post
    Well, yes and no. There's a context where it's legitimate to say science is settled on a given topic, but where denying the understanding which we gained through science could be said as being a denier of science. It's "settled science" that the world is not flat. In other words, a conclusion about that has been settled through science. If people who aren't scientists, start saying the world is flat, denying what we've learned about our planet through science, we could rightly say those are science denyers.

    GW isn't the same thing. It would be absurd to say the science about GW is anywhere in the same galaxy of understanding as the shape of the earth. I think it's more important to challenge what people accept as "settled science" than to say settled science is no longer science.
    Ah, but they would return us to the time of Copernicus, the earth is flat and if you disagree you will be burned at the stake.
    Thor himself has spoken, mere mortals must make it so. - bradmedic04

  5. #2695
    Tired Of Winning
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    Last edited by bwframe; 1 Week Ago at 08:58.
    -----------------------------------------------
    Done, done, and I’m on to the next one...
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  6. #2696
    Master Alpo's Avatar
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    World-famous scientist, Stevie Wonder.
    I all too often ran out of talent well before the exit of the turn. (© Señor Mouse)

  7. #2697
    Somewhat Purple-ish rhino's Avatar
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    I was very disappointed this morning. Roy Spencer was on TV being interviewed to respond to the Stevie Wonder et al "climate deniers should be arrested" nonsense.

    Twice he stated that he thinks that human activity and their CO2 emissions probably contribute to warming. Now, that's a minor point compared to his major points that the warming is minimal and actually beneficial, as is high CO2 levels. It's just that we don't really have evidence to support it, so I'm surprised that he didn't say "it's possible, we don't know yet."

    He has a new book, which I will read.



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  8. #2698
    Quote Originally Posted by Alpo View Post
    World-famous scientist, Stevie Wonder.

    If he could only see the look on my face.















    Too soon?
    Quote Originally Posted by SkinNFluff View Post
    At a family gathering, my sister was getting ready to leave. She walked up and gave me a hug and said "Your phone is poking me." I smiled and replied simply with "That's not my phone".
    Quote Originally Posted by Leggdpms View Post
    ...he said alright sir and shaked my hard and said he has respect...
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow8088 View Post
    I cocked my head to the side a little and was admiring his piece.

  9. #2699
    Master Alpo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by printcraft View Post

    Too soon?
    Let me check......wait one.....

    ***Phone Number Hidden*** (See Rules for more info).gif?quality=.8&height=296&width=551" border="0" alt="" />
    I all too often ran out of talent well before the exit of the turn. (© Señor Mouse)

  10. #2700
    Sharpshooter Brad69's Avatar
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    Ok the input on this thread proves many things!
    1. Many of you are far more intelligent than myself.
    2. How do you find hats to fit your oversized craniums?
    3. Many INGO members have too much time on their hands.
    4. Some "Man Cards" may have to be pulled for nerd behavior!

    U.S. Army retired

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