General Russian foreign entanglements thread

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  • T.Lex

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    Ok, sorry people, I just couldn't take using the "Russian Ambassador Shot" thread for this anymore, especially since it is broadening. I kinda don't care if this also captures the Russia Russia Russia stuff, but I'd prefer the emphasis to be on Russia's actions - not necessarily US suspicions or reactions.

    But, this is INGO. Topic-creep will happen. :D

    Regarding Sergei Skripal, new leaks suggest the leading theory is that the daughter brought something with her in her luggage that contained either the agent itself, or a precursor.

    Russia spy Sergei Skripal?s daughter Yulia had nerve agent ?planted? in suitcase

    There's related reporting that Yulia may have been the actual target. That'd be a kick in the head. The story/rumor goes that she was the girlfriend of an intelligence officer and the lad's mom didn't like her son dating the daughter of a traitor. So, she pulled some strings and had took care of things.

    That's too tabloidy for me, but its out there.

    Also, there is reporting that a Russian banker in 1995 may have been the first actual victim of novichok. Generally, there is a sense that there could be any number of rogue entities/oligarchs that could have this technology.

    No real update on Glushkov.
     

    T.Lex

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    I'm late to the party. I haven't followed the situation with Russia very closely, but it seems to be escalating and I'd like to catch up. Most news articles seem to be pretty slanted toward either it's-no-big-deal or it's-WWIII. Can someone maybe link me to an article that summarize the situation as it stands now? (AKA Russia-for-dummies?)

    A good summary of what is known so far about the Skripal situation.

    Russian spy: What we know so far - BBC News
     

    Kutnupe14

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    The Russians are attempting to expand their influence in a world that increasingly seeing American respect and influence wane.
     

    Fargo

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    In a state of acute Pork-i-docis
    The Russians are attempting to expand their influence in a world that increasingly seeing American respect and influence wane.
    Yeah, I have trouble figuring out what is the chicken and what is the egg on that.

    The 7+ years of war under Bush left the US with relatively little will to continue going down that road.

    Obama tried to pull that back, but in my opinion let his mouth write checks that everyone knew were not going to be cashed and ended up looking weak to both our allies and enemies, and most importantly to the electorate.

    That resulted in the election of our "us first" strongman-lite who is supposed to be outnegotiating Putin. Of course, the "us first" portion of that means that our ties with NATO and many others of our allies are going to be significantly weakened, which cannot help but create a power vacuum in the cluster known as the European Union. IMO, the countries comprising NATO and the European Union need to wake up as far as creating their own viable security and defense apparatuses.

    For better or worse, the last nine years have shown just how unstable America's political will is when it comes to military action. It has also become painfully clear that Putin has tired of looting his own country.
     

    T.Lex

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    I think the move towards having our allies "pay their fair share" (which IMHO goes back to GWB, but in a less antagonistic way and because America's cost of war went up so much) has created the military and political vacuum that Putin is leveraging. And Xi, to a lesser extent.

    But that's part of history's ebb and flow, right? One nation's rise to power has an unavoidable fall, which in turn clears the path for another nation's rise.

    Here's something I just thought of: what if Putin's motivation is China. That is, he can't compete with China in Africa. (Neither can we.) He can't move west because China. His only direction of expansion - politically and otherwise - is east. To Europe.

    ETA
    Or south, to the ME. But that's a gordian knot.
     

    Fargo

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    I think the move towards having our allies "pay their fair share" (which IMHO goes back to GWB, but in a less antagonistic way and because America's cost of war went up so much) has created the military and political vacuum that Putin is leveraging. And Xi, to a lesser extent.

    But that's part of history's ebb and flow, right? One nation's rise to power has an unavoidable fall, which in turn clears the path for another nation's rise.

    Here's something I just thought of: what if Putin's motivation is China. That is, he can't compete with China in Africa. (Neither can we.) He can't move west because China. His only direction of expansion - politically and otherwise - is east. To Europe.

    ETA
    Or south, to the ME. But that's a gordian knot.
    I would say that the way that many of our allies were leveraged into participating in the invasion of a Iraq probably put a significant strain on those ties going back to early Bush years.

    They got on board with an invasion they really didn't want because they were relying on our military to provide for national/regional security in Europe.

    Our post -invasion unwillingness to continue playing that role has fundamentally shifted the spheres of power and influence in the region over the last 15 or so years .
     

    T.Lex

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    Indeed.

    In other news, Boris Johnson, UK's foreign secretary (like our secretary of state), makes HRC look like a freaking genius. He has intentionally articulated that Putin himself ordered the use of the nerve agent in Britain.

    Spy poisoning: Putin most likely behind attack - Johnson - BBC News

    Speaking during a visit to a west London military bunker with the Polish foreign minister, Mr Johnson said the UK's "quarrel is with Putin's Kremlin".

    "We think it overwhelmingly likely that it was his decision to direct the use of a nerve agent on the streets of the UK, on the streets of Europe, for the first time since the Second World War," he said.

    That "his decision" part is personal to Putin, and problematic.

    Buckle up, this could get bumpy. As long as this stays a war of rhetoric, things could remain stable. But, I have by doubts....
     

    Fargo

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    Indeed.

    In other news, Boris Johnson, UK's foreign secretary (like our secretary of state), makes HRC look like a freaking genius. He has intentionally articulated that Putin himself ordered the use of the nerve agent in Britain.

    Spy poisoning: Putin most likely behind attack - Johnson - BBC News



    That "his decision" part is personal to Putin, and problematic.

    Buckle up, this could get bumpy. As long as this stays a war of rhetoric, things could remain stable. But, I have by doubts....

    I would be unsurprised to see Russia invade/occupy/annex a former satellite in the next month, just to make it clear exactly how they feel.
     

    T.Lex

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    I would be unsurprised to see Russia invade/occupy/annex a former satellite in the next month, just to make it clear exactly how they feel.

    Curious to me that Johnson would call out Putin at a meeting with the Polish foreign minister.

    That guy isn't getting paid enough to sit through THAT level of discomfort. Somewhat related, the German foreign minister arrived in Poland for some talks. So, it looks right now like Poland is putting its money behind the Europeans.
     

    T.Lex

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    Fargo

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    Whew. This will certainly help.

    Russia to open criminal investigations on the Skripal attempted murder and the Glushkov murder. Which is interesting, because I don't think UK officials have ruled the Glushkov death a murder. Yet.

    Clearly, the Russian investigators are just better at their jobs. They know its a murder already.

    https://sputniknews.com/russia/201803161062604611-russia-skripal-poisoning-investigation/

    You got a good chuckle out of me on that last line!
     

    T.Lex

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    I would be unsurprised to see Russia invade/occupy/annex a former satellite in the next month, just to make it clear exactly how they feel.
    Following up on this, it will be interesting if any Russian satellite-states kick UK diplomats out.
     

    AtTheMurph

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    Seems to me that the Swamp needs a war, and a really big one at that.

    "Russia meddling in the election". LOL.

    'Russia hacking the Democrats". LOL

    "Russia poisoning Skripal." LOL

    'Russia, Russia, Russia...."

    On the first charge of meddling in the election name me one other country that doesn't do exactly what the Russians are charged with doing? Name one that does it as poorly as the Russians! It's rubbish.

    On the 2nd charge of hacking the Democrats. Couldn't have been them. The evidence is irrefutable that the data that was "hacked" couldn't not have been downloaded over the internet, across the globe at the speed it was downloaded. No network is that fast. The data had to be downloaded at the source. Think downloaded onto a thumb drive by Seth Rich.

    Skripal was working with Chris Steele's firm. Now he ends up poisoned with a nerve agent known to be Russian (but one that any chemical scientist could make since the recipe was published by the Czechs in the 1980s. Seems that either the Russians wanted everyone to know it was them who zapped these two or that someone else was dead set on framing the Russians. Perhaps it's the same people who are telling us the Russians are responsible for hacking the Dems?

    That of course would be the US spy agencies who we know spoof Russian hackers all across the globe to cover their own tracks (see wikileaks, Snowden). It is an easy line to draw that says it is our own out of control spy agencies who are responsible for all manner of mischief and they always seem to want to blame "Russians".

    Way too convenient.
     

    BugI02

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    Yeah, I have trouble figuring out what is the chicken and what is the egg on that.

    The 7+ years of war under Bush left the US with relatively little will to continue going down that road.

    Obama tried to pull that back, but in my opinion let his mouth write checks that everyone knew were not going to be cashed and ended up looking weak to both our allies and enemies, and most importantly to the electorate.

    That resulted in the election of our "us first" strongman-lite who is supposed to be outnegotiating Putin. Of course, the "us first" portion of that means that our ties with NATO and many others of our allies are going to be significantly weakened, which cannot help but create a power vacuum in the cluster known as the European Union. IMO, the countries comprising NATO and the European Union need to wake up as far as creating their own viable security and defense apparatuses.

    For better or worse, the last nine years have shown just how unstable America's political will is when it comes to military action. It has also become painfully clear that Putin has tired of looting his own country.

    The EU might be hopeless, Fargo. It was 2009, wasn't it, when Russia leveraged natural gas exports to pressure the EU on Ukraine. In response to having their noses rubbed in their dependence on an unreliable supplier, their response was to buy more gas from Gazprom than ever. I was just reading purchases are up 8.1% to a new record high :rolleyes:
     

    T.Lex

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    I can think of many adjectives to describe the speculation you sketch out.

    "Convenient" is not one of them.

    I absolutely have an open mind about the Skripal poisoning. Indeed, the Glushkov murder and even the Berezovsky death. But to take the lack of evidence as to perpetrator in those case and extrapolate that out to some variation of a false flag/framing operation is a YUGE stretch.

    On the other hand, there is a rather clear explanation: Russia is an enemy.

    But, while it may be appropriate for another thread, the one thing I'm curious about is the "irrefutable" evidence that the "hacked" data could only have been downloaded at the source. Any cite for that proposition?
     

    AmmoManAaron

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    Skripal was working with Chris Steele's firm. Now he ends up poisoned with a nerve agent known to be Russian (but one that any chemical scientist could make since the recipe was published by the Czechs in the 1980s. Seems that either the Russians wanted everyone to know it was them who zapped these two or that someone else was dead set on framing the Russians. Perhaps it's the same people who are telling us the Russians are responsible for hacking the Dems?

    That of course would be the US spy agencies who we know spoof Russian hackers all across the globe to cover their own tracks (see wikileaks, Snowden). It is an easy line to draw that says it is our own out of control spy agencies who are responsible for all manner of mischief and they always seem to want to blame "Russians".

    Way too convenient.

    I had this nagging feeling that Skripal had been up to something, but couldn't put my finger on it - see my post in the other thread from this morning. I just had it wrong about what exactly he was up to. And I heard this afternoon through anonymous chatter that it may have been corrupt portions of MI6 that attempted to murder him to cover up MI6 involvement in the whole spying on U.S. citizens/Steele dossier debacle. I guess they thought Skripal was a liability.
     

    T.Lex

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    Any links, please to the actual connection with Steele? My understanding is that they had a mutual contact or something, but it was quite tenuous.
     

    Kutnupe14

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    Any links, please to the actual connection with Steele? My understanding is that they had a mutual contact or something, but it was quite tenuous.

    Its amazing the things people are willing to dismiss or create out of thin air, when even the smell of Russia waffles by the president's dacha.
     
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