Impending Economic Collapse: a matter of History

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  • doddg

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    I don't comment on politics on forums, I'm so conservative that I think the conservatives are liberal and I think 99% of politicians are not being truthful and have an agenda when they speak (I'm putting that nicely). Yes, I'm cynical.
    But, I read an article that approaches it from a historical context, nothing I haven't heard before b/c I grew up on a conspiratorial view of government.
    Probably, many on this site are privy to such information already, but here is a bit from a recent article I stumbled across.
    Talking about the doom and gloom of the impending economical collapse is not popular, but I grew up on the concept, and since this article summed up an historical approach that none can deny, I thought I'd share it. If it doesn't apply to the U.S. because the U.S. is nowhere near this state of affairs: that is for you to decide.
    I took out some more "powerful" references so as not to offend and you might actually read this.
    My summation of it all: bad input = bad out put. Or, GIGO (garbage in, garbage out).
    Now you can see why I keep my opinions to myself.


    Throughout the 18th century, France was the greatest superpower in Europe, if not the world.
    But they became complacent, believing that they had some sort of ‘divine right’ to reign supreme, and that they could be as fiscally irresponsible as they liked.
    The French government spent money like drunken sailors; they had substantial welfare programs, free hospitals, and grand monuments.
    They held vast territories overseas, engaged in constant warfare, and even had their own intrusive intelligence service that spied on King and subject alike.
    Of course, they couldn’t pay for any of this.
    French budget deficits were out of control, and they resorted to going heavily into debt and rapidly debasing their currency.
    Stop me when this sounds familiar.
    The French economy ultimately failed, bringing with it a 26-year period of hyperinflation, civil war, military conquest, and genocide.
    History is full of examples, from ancient Mesopotamia to the Soviet Union, which show that whenever societies reach unsustainable levels of resource consumption and allocation, they collapse.
    A recent research paper funded by NASA highlights this same premise. According to the authors:
    “Collapses of even advanced civilizations have occurred many times in the past five thousand years, and they were frequently followed by centuries of population and cultural decline and economic regression.”
    The results of their experiments show that some of the very clear trends which exist today– unsustainable resource consumption, and economic stratification that favors the elite– can very easily result in collapse.
    In fact, they write that “collapse is very difficult to avoid and requires major policy changes.”
    This isn’t exactly good news.
    But here’s the thing– between massive debts, deficits, money printing, war, resource depletion, etc., our modern society seems riddled with these risks.
    And history certainly shows that dominant powers are always changing.
    Empires rise and fall. The global monetary system is always changing. The prevailing social contract is always changing.
    But there is one FAR greater trend across history that supercedes all of the rest… and that trend is the RISE of humanity.
    Human beings are fundamentally tool creators. We take problems and turn them into opportunities. We find solutions. We adapt and overcome.
    The world is not coming to an end. It’s going to reset.
    There’s a huge difference between the two.
    Think about the system that we’re living under.
    A tiny elite has total control of the money supply. They wield intrusive spy networks and weapons of mass destruction. The can confiscate the wealth of others in their sole discretion. They can indebt unborn generations.
    Curiously, these are the same people who are so incompetent they can’t put a website together.
    It’s not working. And just about everyone knows it.
    We’re taught growing up that ‘We the People’ have the power to affect radical change in the voting booth. But this is another fairy tale.
    Voting only changes the players. It doesn’t change the game.
    Technology is one major game changer. The technology exists today to completely revolutionize the way we live and govern ourselves.
    Today’s system is just a 19th century model applied to a 21st century society. I mean– a room full of men making decisions about how much money to print? It’s so antiquated it’s almost comical.
    But given that the majority of Western governments borrow money just to pay interest on money they’ve already borrowed, it’s obvious the current game is almost finished.
    When it ends, there will be a reset… potentially a tumultuous one.
     

    Tombs

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    This whole system was hardwired not to collapse after the great depression.

    I could see a political ordeal toppling the country, but an economic one? Not without taking the whole world with us. And if we're all in the same boat, who really holds the authority to collect on debts?

    Push comes to shove, they'll push forward another war, probably in Iran or Syria. That's always a recipe for an economic boom, especially when the vultures are flying over the fresh battlefield, looking at dollar signs and cheap labor.
     

    Spear Dane

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    Humanity always survives collapse and comes back a little better, a little stronger. Particular civilizations usually don't but that's ok. If we reach a point where we are able to avoid collapse I think we are in deep kaka. We will probably be putting all our efforts into merely trying to not collapse and have no human or financial capital left over for thriving.
     

    Expat

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    I have been reading the same warnings and prepping for it, for decades. Soon I will be too old to take part in the post collapse apocalypse.
     

    doddg

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    This whole system was hardwired not to collapse after the great depression.

    I could see a political ordeal toppling the country, but an economic one? Not without taking the whole world with us. And if we're all in the same boat, who really holds the authority to collect on debts?

    Push comes to shove, they'll push forward another war, probably in Iran or Syria. That's always a recipe for an economic boom, especially when the vultures are flying over the fresh battlefield, looking at dollar signs and cheap labor.

    I have been reading the same warnings and prepping for it, for decades. Soon I will be too old to take part in the post collapse apocalypse.


    1. Good insights.
    2. I too, have wondered if I would be alive during an economic collapse and hoping it would be "in the future."
    3. The primary thing that concerns me is the unsustainable spending more than we bring in, which is a way of life for the U.S. (as with many other nations, of course).
    4. We get buy with it b/c of our production, but indebting future generations is problematic and just as families cannot do it forever, neither can nations, historically speaking.
    5. This is an oversimplification, but the U.S. is headed toward and has chosen a direction due to our leadership, and both major parties are guilty, and have been.
    6. The simple act of the Federal government taking the people's Social Security pile of money and using it for current expenses instead of leaving it there for what it was intended for (future generations) and the voters didn't do anything about it was very revealing.
    7. IN did the same thing with the Teacher's retirement fund and has never paid it all back, as well, if my understanding and what I've been told is true.
    8. Companies are backing out of their retirement funds for employees b/c they have spent the money and the Federal Gov't. has a program to "pick those up." There have been documentaries about that.
    9. Overspending and accumulating growing interest are the enemy, and should only be for short-term emergencies, imo.
     

    ATOMonkey

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    25 year projections show that China, India, and Indonesia will become the largest economies in the world.

    When that occurs, our currency will most likely not be used as the world reserve currency any longer. At that time, people will sell all of their US bonds for Chinese bonds. With no way for us to fully service that debt and continue massive deficit spending, the economy will collapse as hyper-inflation sets in.

    What will most likely happen at that time is that the Federal Reserve will hit the big red "RESET" button on the currency. Trillions of dollars of wealth will be lost, but it will prevent a complete collapse.

    Defaulting on our debt will cheese off a lot of countries, but since we'll still have the largest military in the world, it may forestall any violent retribution.


    Great Britain has done this a time or two. Argentina had to start over several times on their currency.

    More than likely what will happen is that as America continues to lose global influence, and communism and Islam gain global influence, it will push us into an Ideological world war.
     

    BugI02

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    The behavior of international investors during the most recent near collapse (putting money into the US despite effectively negative interest rates) I think is indicative of who they think will be the last economy standing. That's not to say that view won't/can't change over time
     

    BugI02

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    [snip]
    When it ends, there will be a reset… potentially a tumultuous one.

    "I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." - Albert Einstein

    We have exhausted most easily accessible natural resources, mining and extraction is now a very technological endeavor. I think it is possible to reach a height as a civilization that it precludes recovery from a fall

    Also, there are some catastrophes that I'd rather not survive. I'd prefer to be under the fireball rather than merely close to it

     

    DoggyDaddy

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    "I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." - Albert Einstein

    We have exhausted most easily accessible natural resources, mining and extraction is now a very technological endeavor. I think it is possible to reach a height as a civilization that it precludes recovery from a fall

    Also, there are some catastrophes that I'd rather not survive.
    I'd prefer to be under the fireball rather than merely close to it
    You mean an actual fireball, or are you talking redhead? :naughty:
     

    Hawkeye7br

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    I do not suscribe to "CLS" aka "Chicken Little Syndrome". When my mom aged, she would stop at green lights because she was afraid others would run the red light and T-bone her. It terrified me to ride with her, she didn't understand how dangerous it was to stop for green lights.
    Mom would lock the front door behind me while I was unloading luggage from the car. If you live your life in a state of paranoia or fear, you will never experience a Ferris wheel, swimming with friends in a creek, a new restaurant, or a multitude of other normal things.
     

    DoggyDaddy

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    I do not suscribe to "CLS" aka "Chicken Little Syndrome". When my mom aged, she would stop at green lights because she was afraid others would run the red light and T-bone her. It terrified me to ride with her, she didn't understand how dangerous it was to stop for green lights.
    Mom would lock the front door behind me while I was unloading luggage from the car. If you live your life in a state of paranoia or fear, you will never experience a Ferris wheel, swimming with friends in a creek, a new restaurant, or a multitude of other normal things.

    I had the misfortune of driving downtown (Indy) at rush hour a couple of days ago. There must have been a LOT of people like your mom. They would either stop at green lights, or else wait at the green light until the car in front of them had gotten at least 20 or 30 car lengths ahead of them before deciding to go on green. :n00b:
     

    miguel

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    I've been waiting for the pending economic collapse since the early 90s. All I have to show for it is a bunch of guns and spaghetti... :laugh:
     

    Leadeye

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    I figure the next big mess with be a civil war in china between people holding power and other groups that want more. Who will the US support? Who knows? The important thing is that the boats will stop coming regardless and much of what our economy has come to depend on in the way of cheap goods will dry up far faster than those goods can be put into production here in the US.
     

    rob63

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    I'm not overly worried about the economic collapse, I already survived the world ending in 2000.
     

    OkieGirl

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    I read a similar article, OP. From MSN Money, published by the Washington Post. It essentially said that since there was a financial crisis every 10 years, the last one being quoted in the article as 2008 - that the globe was historically overdue. It suspected Italy as being the source of the EU financial collapse, they make up at least 10% of the EU GDP. There was a bailout of Greece in 2012 that hurt the EU but not as much (Greece was quoted as making up 2% of the GDP). I get the concern - Italy has similar governmental struggles in that one party favors tax breaks for the self employed and another party favors governmental funded programs.

    To bring the problem a bit closer to the U.S., the issue to watch is the raising interest rates on unsecured or variable rate loans. Many people live paycheck to paycheck and make financial decisions base on payment. With cost of goods increasing, and loan/credit card payments increasing it really is a ticking time bomb for some financially stretched individuals. For those people, the best course of action is to pay off variable rate or unsecured debt as quickly as humanly possible. Take a second or third job, but get it gone ASAP. Letters are going out from financial institutions updating people regularly on their newest rate bump for HELOC's, Credit Cards, Lines of Credit, etc... and Christmas spending is just around the corner. Money management isn't taught in schools it is taught (and modeled) in the home...and many of those lessons aren't happening in current day America. So...remind your kids not to carry debt, and pay your own debts off as best you can and as quickly as you can. People love to hate Dave Ramsey but the principals are sound.
     

    doddg

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    All solid points, OkieGirl.
    Believe me, I teach my students that interest is evil and not to borrow money, pay cash.
    Houses and cars are two necessities, where one has to borrow, but always buy less than what you "qualify" for.
     

    Tombs

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    25 year projections show that China, India, and Indonesia will become the largest economies in the world.

    When that occurs, our currency will most likely not be used as the world reserve currency any longer. At that time, people will sell all of their US bonds for Chinese bonds. With no way for us to fully service that debt and continue massive deficit spending, the economy will collapse as hyper-inflation sets in.

    What will most likely happen at that time is that the Federal Reserve will hit the big red "RESET" button on the currency. Trillions of dollars of wealth will be lost, but it will prevent a complete collapse.

    Defaulting on our debt will cheese off a lot of countries, but since we'll still have the largest military in the world, it may forestall any violent retribution.


    Great Britain has done this a time or two. Argentina had to start over several times on their currency.

    More than likely what will happen is that as America continues to lose global influence, and communism and Islam gain global influence, it will push us into an Ideological world war.

    China existing as it does today in another 25 years is nearly impossible.

    You think our debt is bad? Go look at China's debt and their spending habits. If their economy ever slows down, even the tiniest amount, their entire country is going to fold up. And you better believe we have plans for helping that along, because we're not going to go silently into the night.

    Our navy alone could completely shut down their country's ability to operate. In fact, if China was allied with the entire rest of the world, our navy, by its self, could take them down.
     
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