Saudi officials kill journalist, what's the response going to be?

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  • BehindBlueI's

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    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/16/world/middleeast/khashoggi-saudi-prince.html

    My prediction? Nothing. The US gov't has no real interest in "spreading democracy" and Saudi's support of terrorism (financially and ideologically through Wahabi teachings) are ignored because of the check they provide on Iran and keep the oil flowing. Khashoggi was vocal in calling out terrorists, attacking the ideology that being Muslim means violence against non-Muslims and using the Quran to prove that's not Mohammed's teachings, and he ran afoul of the royal family of Saudi. He's not the first, but he's the most high profile and one that looks to have a lot of proof so it's caught the public's eye.
     

    Fargo

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    Well, Osama Bin Laden was an Afghani right? We have been ignoring stuff like this from the Saudis for decades, hell we invaded Iraq because the Kuwaitis convinced us Saddam was after Saudi Arabia. It's sad, but nothing new here.
     

    Cameramonkey

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    I expect someone berated by Trey Gowdy to be brought up on charges before anything happens here. (hint: That aint happening either)
     

    Ericpwp

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    The media will scream and shout because he was one of their own. Hopefully they can see how great America is that they can have 24/7 anti-Trump coverage, and go sleep in their warm bed.
     

    halfmileharry

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    Well, Pres. Trump isn't a fan of the media, the conservative side of America isn't happy with the left leaning liberal media... So.... Business as usual and maybe some harsh words at most.
     

    KG1

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    I vote nothing. The US and the Saudis are too much interwoven. So much so that it makes things extremely complicated.

    Big time pressure is mounting though to do something. Trump has got a smoking hot political potato in his hands to deal with right now for sure.
     

    Expat

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    They will try to do nothing. If push comes to shove and something has to happen, I figure the crown prince will pick someone in the royal family that he wants dead any way, blame him and execute him.
     

    KG1

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    They will try to do nothing. If push comes to shove and something has to happen, I figure the crown prince will pick someone in the royal family that he wants dead any way, blame him and execute him.
    Yeah I think the way things are looking the Royals are gonna try to claim not to have given any orders to kill Khashoggi and they will trot out some scapegoats and lop their heads off in an effort to appease if anything.

    This hole can only get deeper from here.
     

    T.Lex

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    This is going to be a problem. The audio - which is a fascinating question in itself - appears to be pretty damning. (I understand wet work is getting more difficult in an era where every person can broadcast, but professionalism seems to be dropping off, too.)

    There is a bit of an analog, though. What did we do to Israel when they killed the guy in Dubai?

    Back to the recording - I think there are 4 options:
    - Turkey is going to have to admit they bugged the Saudi consulate. That's awkward.
    - Foreign governments often need local workers for tasks. Sometimes these can become trusted members of the staff who can end up in the "right place at the right time."
    - Dude had a transmitter on him and the Saudis didn't realize it. Reports are that his fiance stayed in the area. But, the reports stay she stayed there a few hours. If he was sending a signal, and she heard him get killed, that timeline is messed up. Although, maybe he recorded it to a social media account or something, and she didn't realize it until she got home.
    - The Saudis have a leak. I don't think this is very plausible, but it is possible.
     

    hoosierdoc

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    You guys are looking at this assuming we are being led by a politician.

    I don’t know what will happen, but I suspect it will be more than nothing
     

    T.Lex

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    You guys are looking at this assuming we are being led by a politician.

    I don’t know what will happen, but I suspect it will be more than nothing

    Well, "nothing" is a very low hurdle. :D Almost... anything would be "something." Tweeting harshly would be something. :)

    I see nothing in Trump's personal or political history (and he has been a "politician" for at least 4 years now) that makes me think he'll do anything meaningful about this. He respects authoritarians. IMHO, he'll regard this act favorably, and wish that he could get away with something like that.

    Oh. Wait. I did think of something. He's fond of treating our allies poorly. So yeah, maybe he will do something to the Saudis about this. ;)

    This is a REALLY bad situation for the professional foreign service people. I'd feel better about our response if I knew we had a principled leader. Since we don't, there's no way to predict how this will go.

    If an America-first rationale, we should do nothing. We don't have a dog in this fight.
     

    Leadeye

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    With 15K members of the royal family, 2K of which are actually calling the shots, I don't see how you could get a coherent policy from all of them. It's hard to believe that they all know what the other one is doing, so at the end of the day it will probably be handled internally, however they do that over there.
     

    T.Lex

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    With 15K members of the royal family, 2K of which are actually calling the shots, I don't see how you could get a coherent policy from all of them. It's hard to believe that they all know what the other one is doing, so at the end of the day it will probably be handled internally, however they do that over there.

    I think that's probably true. And, to the extent we ever find out about it, I suspect it will be bloody.

    But, there's a real risk that it could reveal a bigger problem: that the Sauds involved in this were part of the 2k. That is, this journalist was partial to criticizing some very specific members of the House of Saud. If he was killed for that, then... well... there could be a real power vacuum after the internal "handling" of this.
     

    BehindBlueI's

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    You guys are looking at this assuming we are being led by a politician.

    I don’t know what will happen, but I suspect it will be more than nothing

    The guy who's been talking about and actually running for POTUS since the late 80s isn't a politician? Ok. I'll play along.

    One of Trump's ploys during the campaign was the "Muslim ban" and he's actually banned immigration from several Muslim-majority nations. Yet he, along with previous administrations, continues to hold hands with the major creator of Muslim terrorists. Saudi financially backs terrorists, but worse they use their pulpit to create and spread the radical school of Islam known as "Wahabi" that the vast majority of violent Islamic terrorists belong to. Wahabi is a version of Islam created by Saudi royalty for Saudi royalty and it's goal isn't being closer to God but supporting the power structure of Saudi Arabia. They are both overt and covert, projecting power in subtle ways such as editing Qu'rans to stay "on message" for Saudi and not for Islam, or as in-your-face as funding violent acts. Saudi has spent some $100-$200 BILLION in exporting Wahabi ideology to poorer nations like Yemen, and in particular areas with limited literacy, global connection, etc. They build schools, sent teachers and imams, sent their edited Qu'rans, and spread their message which really boils down to "support the House of Saud as your religious, political, and economic savior." They also exported it to Afghanistan and Pakistan, which we were ok with because it was checking the Soviets (co-opting the notion of Jihad for the sole purpose of expelling foreign invaders with Western support pre-dated WWI when the Germans encouraged violent Jihad ideology to attempt to rile Arabs into pushing the British out of Egypt) but now those chickens have come home to roost as the Soviets are no more and the US and Europe are now the "them".

    The US took down Saddam for way less than we tolerate or encourage from the House of Saud. Why was Saddam the Dictator so dangerous and destabilizing to the region but the House of Saud is an ally? Why were we "spreading democracy" in Iraq but not Saudi Arabia? Why were we supporting Saudi's Wahabi in the 80's? We don't really care about radicalized violent Islam, as long as it's aimed at the right people, and it's actually handy for "us vs them" politics domestically as well. Trump certainly sells it to his base. No, it's a resource war and vying for influence, and has been since the run-up to WWI. Cheap energy and checking Russian influence. The US will tolerate anything from Saudi and Israel because they are the most powerful anti-Iran (a proxy for Russia) players in the region. When ever you ask yourself "why do we do XXX for Iran when they are our enemy?" it's because that's the real fight as far as the influence wars or going. Prying Iran from Russia would mean we wouldn't have to hold our noses and play nice with the House of Saud as much.

    So what will "not politician Trump" do? Nothing of substance. He can't. He has inherited a mess that's decades in the making, a path of "the lesser evil" that's like a credit card account that just keeps piling up and we hope to continue to ignore. He'll pretend to believe the Saudi's narrative, play plausible deniability, and do what his predecessors have done. Keep the energy flowing, keep the problems that stem from it on foreign soil as much as possible, and hope that checking the Soviets/post-Soviet Russia is worth the collateral damage done. At absolute most, a wink-wink-nudge-nudge ignoring of some meaningless face saving financial or political "strike" by Turkey or other regional proxy. Anything of substance is, at this point, too dangerous to US interests. Alienate an ally of convenience, potentially destabilize a major source of energy and regional stability, and risk that Iran/Russia makes in roads? But when people ask "why don't Muslims speak out against terrorism" type questions, remember that one reason is where our "ally" has reach speaking out may mean being tortured to death and dismembered. Another is they've been educated by the House of Saud to not question it, and to aim it outward. That's the truly disgusting part.
     

    Wolfhound

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    The Saudi's have been cutting off hands and feet (and heads) for centuries. It is part of their brutal culture. I don't see that changing anytime soon. The Turks are the ones complaining the loudest about this incident and it happened on Turk soil so they seem to have a legitimate issue. But, if you take a look at Turkey's history they are certainly not all warm and fuzzy themselves. Lots of brutality in that part of the world.
     

    T.Lex

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    BBI's assessment is excellent on this, so I can't really add much.

    I will only throw into the ring that there's another layer of complexity to this: Turkey. Once again, Erdogan - through luck that is both good and bad - finds himself with leverage. He's been getting cuddly with Putin for awhile, but because of the US-Saudi relationship, has an opportunity to play ball with us.

    Turkey could use this to broker more influence in significant ways.
     
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