The Massive Miss - Literally - Thank God (or Your Diety of Choice)!

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  • JAL

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    Those that follow events of this type will know about this event. All of humanity was spared from a 50-100 foot projectile moving at 9 miles per second, that's right, per second. That's 47,520 fps or 32,400 mph. It missed by about 26k miles, which, by astronomical standards lands in the 9 just barely outside the 10 ring bullseye. Fortunately, it was 4k miles outside the 22k mile geosynchronous satellite altitude. Geosynchronous and Geostationary are the altitude of nearly all communications satellites carrying telecommunications, radio (XM; Sirius uses Molniya orbits) and TV. Had it impacted even a single satellite it would precipitate the Kessler Syndrome, a domino effect of debris impacting and destroying other satellites that would create a junkyard cloud of debris consisting of everything man-made orbiting the earth. From my graduate level knowledge of astrodynamics, this is a very real hazard and its occurrence would make the use of any replacement man-made satellites all but impossible for many generations. It's an example of mechanical runaway feedback. The Kessler Syndrome was the premise of the 2013 Academy Award Best Picture film, Gravity.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome

    See the animated graphic in the Wikipedia 2012 TC4 entry showing the Earth, a typical geosynchronous satellite, the Moon and the asteroid. How close it comes is, what we used to characterize crudely as not just a CH, but a Red CH.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_TC4

    Newsweek article:
    Watch Asteroid TC4?s Extreme Close Approach With Earth Live Online

    NASA article:
    https://www.nasa.gov/feature/this-is-a-test-asteroid-tracking-network-observes-oct-12-close-approach

    Next time you land just outside the 10 ring bull by just barely a hair, if that much, think of asteroid 2012 TC4 and yesterday's very, very near miss. Be glad it was a miss. A 50-100 footer impacting Earth would create a non-trivial very dramatic air burst in the upper atmosphere. The shock wave would cause damage and injury, potentially thousandsPrecipitating the Kessler Syndrome barreling through the 22k mile high overcrowded geosynchronous satellite altitude at 32,400 mph would take us back to 1960 regarding space based communications, geolocation and weather technology. A much larger asteroid would impact the Earth itself and flip relative consequences around.

    Asteroid size vs impact effect:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event

    John
     
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    Wolfhound

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    Good post. Thank God for the miss. I kinda like things how they are now. Satellite TV, GPS etc.

    My dark side realizes no one gets off the planet alive and a big enough impact would pretty much end things.
     

    rob63

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    Yeah, I don't like the idea of an asteroid coming so close to hitting the earth. It is where I keep my guns.
     

    Alamo

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    ...through the 22k mile high overcrowded geosynchronous satellite altitude at 32,400 mph would take us back to 1960 regarding space based communications, geolocation and weather technology. ...

    John

    Good post. Thank God for the miss. I kinda like things how they are now. ... GPS etc.
    ...

    GPS satellites orbit at about 12,500 miles, or about half-geosynchronous (altho geosynchronous orbits can be elliptical and vary in altitude) so that they orbit the earth about twice per day. So maybe they'll miss the space junk. I don't know about GLONASS and Galileo.
     

    halfmileharry

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    Good post. Thank God for the miss. I kinda like things how they are now. Satellite TV, GPS etc.

    My dark side realizes no one gets off the planet alive and a big enough impact would pretty much end things.

    Depends on how you view the event.
    "Drain the swamp and start over" somehow comes to mind.
     

    jason867

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    I was reading that nasa was fairly certain that if this same asteroid was to hit us, that it would be similar to the one that exploded over russia recently. I took it to mean that itd be loud and flashy, but otherwise mostly harmless.

    Sorry, i don't have a link to what i read.
     

    JAL

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    GPS satellites orbit at about 12,500 miles, or about half-geosynchronous (altho geosynchronous orbits can be elliptical and vary in altitude) so that they orbit the earth about twice per day. So maybe they'll miss the space junk. I don't know about GLONASS and Galileo.

    The debris cloud would eventually take them out. The Chinese taking out a polar orbit satellite with a kinetic ASAT in 2007 was met with considerable consternation. Link to Wikipedia article section regarding the aftermath, which is still quite substantial and will be for at least two more decades. The major issue was its altitude. As of 2016, 2,867 of the dectected 3,438 pieces of space debris from it were still in orbit around the Earth, constituting the majority of tracked debris orbiting the Earth. A recent estimate predicted 30% of the debris larger than 3.9" (10cm) would still be in orbit in 2035, nearly 30 years later.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_missile_test#Aftermath

    The U.S. took out a spy satellite in 2008 that had failed soon after launch with a decaying orbit in 2008. The "excuse" was a fuel tank containing hydrazine (very poisonous). The Russians and Chinese accused the U.S. of doing it in retaliation for the Chinese ASAT. IMHO, the hydrazine, or nearly all of it, would have burned up on reentry, but retaliation wasn't the motive. Satellites The NRO (U.S. Nat'l Reconnaissance Office) did it to ensure sensitive sensors and electronics that might survive reentry did not fall into the wrong hands. They deliberately waited until just before it started to deorbit to minimize the amount of time the debris created would remain in orbit. Even though the satellite itself would have deorbited in a week or less, a significant percentage of the the debris cloud created would not. The U.S. had taken out a very low earth orbit satellite in 1985. It's last bit of tracked debris de-orbited in 2008, 23 years later. The difference in 1985 and 2008 were the much lower orbits.

    To give an idea of the debris problem, a speck of paint caused a significant divot in one of the space shuttle's windows. Something as small as a #4 screw could cause substantial damage to a satellite. These objects are moving at tens of thousands of mph. Paint speck damage:
    main-qimg-b4e101853496d96b281f33763a197b42-c


    John
     

    JAL

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    I was reading that nasa was fairly certain that if this same asteroid was to hit us, that it would be similar to the one that exploded over russia recently. I took it to mean that itd be loud and flashy, but otherwise mostly harmless.

    Sorry, i don't have a link to what i read.

    The massive explosion was similar in magnitude to a nuclear air burst without the radiation and radioactive fallout. It caused 1500 injuries and some significant structure damage. Most of the injuries were from flying glass from all the windows its blast shattered and blew into the buildings. Article entry has section on the damage it caused.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor

    John
     

    BugI02

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    Google's balloons and Facebook's solar powered drones may become critical technology after spacewar. Probably need to go to satellites beyond geosync for gps and WX. Geosync is convenient but hardly necessary anymore

    We are lucky some workarounds may exist. I doubt the convenience of the everyday consumer will hold much weight in a warfare decision. We can hope Google's tech might win out and drive a stake through the heart of facebook once and for all
     
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