Hurricane Irma: Bug out or bug in?

[Tactically Fat]

Irma was upgraded to a Cat 5 storm this afternoon.

Those folks on the islands in the Caribbean are in for a royal hosing. Again. Won't be pretty. Won't be pretty for MONTHS down there.

My wife has family that lives near Geneva, FL. Her cousin's house is 470 feet from the edge of what's called Jordan Slough which is part of the St. John's River.

This cousin's two children (1 with wife + 3 kids) and his in-laws live CLOSER to the river. The whole area is within the "500-year flood" zone.

They tend to stay somewhat prepared - but this storm is different. Today's upgrade has shifted their line of thinking.

As of texts from earlier today, they're still not sure what they're going to do. He says that he doubts he'll be able to get is inlaws to move. They're life-long Floridians from that area of the state, old, decrepit (he's drunk most of the time, apparently). If the youngers leave - they're essentially leaving the elders to die IF there's a direct hit. The flooding will also not be pretty.

Personally, I've urged them all to bug-out. Head north. Deal with the crap when they can get back.

We also have family in the Tampa area. Who knows how it'll affect that part of the state. Hopefully if it gets bad there, she + young son will bug out. He's a LEO - so he won't be able to accompany - unfortunately.

I'm quite glad that I live in hurricane-free Indiana.

 

[ghuns]

I'd be headin up north and fast. He can get drunk in Georgia or Tennessee too.

 

[eldirector]

As posted in the other hurricane thread: my sister and brother-in-law are on St. Croix. Just finished getting everything inside, and installing steel shutters. Looks like they plan to ride it out at home. They expect the power utility to shut down prior to the storm, to minimize damage to their system. They have food and water for at least a few days. Hoping the cistern doesn't take on much seawater (all of the downspouts have been diverted). There is a shelter right up the road at the fire station. I'm hoping they head there tonight, but I doubt they will.

Webcam from the harbor a couple of minutes down the road from their place:
Official Page for Live St. Croix Web Cam in Christiansted | GoToStCroix.com

140 miles wide, and moving at 14 miles an hour. 10 hours of hell. 180+ MPH winds, too.

If you are the praying type, I'd appreciate it.

 

[NVG]

Prayers said for all in harms way and will continue to be in prayers. My sister and her family along with my mom live in Bradenton. They made the "store to stock up" trip. Sis texted me about 3 hrs ago and stated "I know now why you prep-shelves are wiped out". No battled water or can goods. Told her to wash out BIL Diet Coke 2 liters and fill with water. Fill buckets/tub for hygiene and toilet flushing. But not to hesitate to move north and avoid last minute mad dash. Items are replaceable-Lives are not.

 

[avboiler11]

I'd GTFO, *now*.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

As of texts from earlier today, they're still not sure what they're going to do. He says that he doubts he'll be able to get is inlaws to move. They're life-long Floridians from that area of the state, old, decrepit (he's drunk most of the time, apparently). If the youngers leave - they're essentially leaving the elders to die IF there's a direct hit. The flooding will also not be pretty.

If they stay, is there anything they can actually do for the elders? There's saving someone, and there's being an extra casualty. It is a poo decision to make, but that's the real question at the end of the day.

 

[Vigilant]

The weather report I saw earlier at an FOB lists it now as Cat5++, never heard of a +P storm, much less a +P+ storm? If you're along the predicted path, maybe wanna think about heading north for a week's vacay!

 

[SMiller]

I am in Florida, total insanity here, everyone is going crazy, hour long lines for gas, some stations out of fuel already, ZERO water on any shelf's, people were fighting for the last water at Walmart, no food on shelf's, no generators left. End of world stuff.



It is pretty easy to sit back in your chair from 1000 miles away and say how you would up and leave. What about your children missing school? What about missing work? What about burning up vacation days? What about interstates being gridlock? What about there being no fuel on the interstate? What about every hotel being booked?



When you live in the dirty South how many times a year are you supposed to get scared and run? We have no idea what a hurricane is actually going to do until it damn near makes landfall, you can only run for no reason so many times, we were supposed to get destroyed last year for Mathew, it barely sprinked and we worked cattle all day, was a total joke.



Always easy to say what a man would do until it is you that has to do it.

Some of us are in emergency management/services, running is not a option, people's lives depend on me staying.

 

[avboiler11]

I am in Florida, total insanity here, everyone is going crazy, hour long lines for gas, some stations out of fuel already, ZERO water on any shelf's, people were fighting for the last water at Walmart, no food on shelf's, no generators left. End of world stuff.

It is pretty easy to sit back in your chair from 1000 miles away and say how you would up and leave. What about your children missing school? What about missing work? What about burning up vacation days? What about interstates being gridlock? What about there being no fuel on the interstate? What about every hotel being booked?

When you live in the dirty South how many times a year are you supposed to get scared and run? We have no idea what a hurricane is actually going to do until it damn near makes landfall, you can only run for no reason so many times, we were supposed to get destroyed last year for Mathew, it barely sprinked and we worked cattle all day, was a total joke.

Always easy to say what a man would do until it is you that has to do it.

In my opinion, evacuation is a matter of risk management - to me (and I don't live there) the potential downside of staying should this storm hit close to the current track far outweighs any potential upside of staying.

I mean, 185mph winds?!? Of course it may weaken between now and the weekend, but still...

Some of us are in emergency management/services, running is not a option, people's lives depend on me staying.

And bless you for that - the Kobayashi Maru ain't just a Starfleet Academy test.

I would pose this question too you - as someone in emergency services, what would make your job easier assuming the current tracks hold - people leaving or staying?

 

[SMiller]

In my opinion, evacuation is a matter of risk management - to me (and I don't live there) the potential downside of staying should this storm hit close to the current track far outweighs any potential upside of staying.

I mean, 185mph winds?!? Of course it may weaken between now and the weekend, but still...



And bless you for that - the Kobayashi Maru ain't just a Starfleet Academy test.

I would pose this question too you - as someone in emergency services, what would make your job easier assuming the current tracks hold - people leaving or staying?

There is a fine line between getting out and being stuck, if you are going to go then get in your vehicle at 10pm tonight and drive, if not then have a plan and be prepared to hold your own and depend on NO ONE, emergency services does NOT operate until the storm subsidies and winds go under 55mph, that means NO ONE is coming, maybe for days, maybe not at all. Know your flood zones, know where to go and what to do.

A lot of these folks have lived a hard life, they are tough and know how to beat a storm, the old and young have no chance. Lord knows there is a lot of old here, most needing a lot of meds.

If you cannot complete a half Ironman race, run a 5k, run a chainsaw for a entire day, are not physically fit, do not know how to properly hydrate, do not have the skills and tools to carry out the mission then you should move on WELL ahead of the storm. Last year I took photos of the toll road running to the interstate leaving Orlando, it was gridlock, this was 2 days before the storm, had it been a real event those people would have not made it.

On the flip side we have Disney passes and it looks like the whole world will be cancelling their trips so should make for a empty park, think we will go sat.

 

[rlfrye]

My parents and a brother live in the Port Charlotte area, we are trying to convince the folks to come here for awhile. They have a house up here, no sense trying to ride it out when you are 80 years old.

 

[Mark 1911]

Time to go. Lived through one of those in Houston in 1980, not nearly as bad as Harvey or Irma and it still sucked.

 

[MrsGungho]

Have a nephew in Ft Lauderdale, often times goes to Key West to DJ. He's making plans to head back north. Will decide in the morning.

 

[K_W]

My friend in Miami is bug-in. She's a ways up off the coast and has rode out an indirect hit from a Cat 5 before.

 

[Super Bee]

On the flip side we have Disney passes and it looks like the whole world will be cancelling their trips so should make for a empty park, think we will go sat.

My sales manager has had a trip to Disney planned for a year. I talked to her today telling her we can work around anything so she can reschedule. She told me dont worry about it. . they are still flying down on Saturday for a week.

 

[SMiller]

My sales manager has had a trip to Disney planned for a year. I talked to her today telling her we can work around anything so she can reschedule. She told me dont worry about it. . they are still flying down on Saturday for a week.

I would do the same in her shoes, will probably be the trip of a lifetime. I watched Mathew get blown out of proportion last year, they said everyone would die blah blah blah. Hope the crowds are very low and they get to enjoy the parks.

 

[Trigger Time]

If you're in south Florida be safe. I would leave if I was in a.flood area or close to the shore, and to hell with school or a job that won't accept it. Find a better job and don't miss school for stupid **** and you'll have days to take. Especially if the school blows or washes away.
Family wants to stay and die? Ok but me and mine arent dying with you. I've already factored this into emergency ecacuation plans here. They have 30 minutes if it allows to give me a yes, any other answer and ill set you up as best I can before we take off. The window is small.
You get one life. Don't waste it because you're protecting a way of life or stuff. Jobs, stuff, egos, can all be rebuilt.

 

[natdscott]

The question is...has anybody ever heard of a P+P storm?

 

[IndyDave1776]

The question is...has anybody ever heard of a P+P storm?

I can only speak for myself, but, no.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

In my opinion, evacuation is a matter of risk management - to me (and I don't live there) the potential downside of staying should this storm hit close to the current track far outweighs any potential upside of staying.

Evacuating when you didn't need to can be done repeatedly.
Not evacuating when you did need to, that's a mistake you may only get to make once.