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    Dorky_D

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    First off I have questions, but his thread is NOT a call to arms. It is not a "I dare you" kind of a thing. I am not really interested in the "bring it on mentality", and I will not entertain it, encourage it or endorse it. I think that should be the last thing on our minds. I merely want to objectively talk and think about what could or might happen.

    Back to it...

    Lately I have seen more civil war talk and really from both sides. Normally you see this in just the prepper (often more conservative or libertarian) more fear mongering, tin foil hat groups. I know some of us may be more in that camp, and I am not denying that there may be some healthy need for being skeptical and slow to trust. Anyway, I have also seen more amped up talk from the left, which aside from the Antifa and BLM type groups is often less talked about.

    So, that brings me to my questions.

    1. What percentage chance would you say that there is a more concerted armed conflict (aside for protests here and Antifa/BLM type stuff here and there) that is impacting fairly widespread (multiple locations, multiple groups and multiple deaths) in the next 10 years?
    2. How many percentage points has this shifted in the last 2-4 years and which way?
    3. How bad do you think it will get if it comes to conflict?
    4. What kind of things do you foresee?
    5. What are your reasons? What factors and influences are at play?

    All of this is of course speculation, and perhaps worth nothing, but as I have seen more talk about it, I want to take an objective approach to looking at the social/political environment.

    My answers as I am thinking right now. Fee free to change my mind.
    1. 50/50
    2. The chances of conflict have increased, by about 20% in the last 2-4 years.
    3. I have a hard time telling this, which is why I am asking. My gut tells me that the cities may have some semi widespread violence, and that police presence may diminish, which could make the issue worse. I do not see it erupting much into the suburbs, other than increased crime rates. That is somewhat already happening, but the causes are many. There could be some political violence to key people, but not sure.
    4. There could be some disruptions of some services and deliveries, but at this point, I do not see it being that bad outside of major cities.
    5. I think there is a lack of civility. The reasons are many. I will not go into detail, but I think there is a moral decline that is causing a lot of this. As a result, people are being less civil and this is never a good thing for society. I think there have been political and social personalities encouraging dissension and lawlessness. I think we are in a bad way.

    These are my thoughts, feel free to change my mind and fix my thinking. Again, to be clear, I am not looking to start stuff, nor really finish it either, I am just tying to gauge what is going on.
     

    T.Lex

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    Do you think Sherman ever stayed in a Holiday inn Express?

    120724090824-sherman-hemsley-01-horizontal-large-gallery.jpg



    And, because now I kinda feel bad for an immediate derail:
    1. What percentage chance would you say that there is a more concerted armed conflict (aside for protests here and Antifa/BLM type stuff here and there) that is impacting fairly widespread (multiple locations, multiple groups and multiple deaths) in the next 10 years?
    2. How many percentage points has this shifted in the last 2-4 years and which way?
    3. How bad do you think it will get if it comes to conflict?
    4. What kind of things do you foresee?
    5. What are your reasons? What factors and influences are at play?

    1. Less than 5%.
    2. None. In fact, having lived through the 90s, with the Michigan Militia and gun control, I think we're at a lower percentage than then. However, we probably are at a higher risk than 10 years ago.
    3. Assuming the military stays neutral and the majority of LEOs just try to enforce the laws, then any "badness" will be very local. Very very local.
    4. Local unrest in areas already known for violence in metropolitan areas.
    5. Having accumulated more than half the birthdays that I'm probably allotted, I just have a certain perspective. And optimism. Tinged with cynicism. Too many people are too comfortable and insufficiently desperate to resort to violence.
     

    T.Lex

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    Wait. I thought it was advocating for the thing that was the issue?

    Kinda seems like this kind of speculative thing is in-line with either the General Political discussions of political violence or even other threads here in the Survival area.
     

    Birds Away

    ex CZ afficionado.
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    18   0   0
    Aug 29, 2011
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    Monticello
    Wait. I thought it was advocating for the thing that was the issue?

    Kinda seems like this kind of speculative thing is in-line with either the General Political discussions of political violence or even other threads here in the Survival area.

    Stick around. The "hold my beer" crowd will be along shortly.
     

    K_W

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    8   0   0
    Aug 14, 2008
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    Indy / Carmel
    1. Less than 1%
    2. It hasn't
    3. anything or even resembling civil conflict will probably be armed groups showing up at protests and that one of them shots will be fired from both sides.
    4. Any further protests to be more heavily armed and increased likelihood that shots will occur again, police will overreact in may also become involved in the shooting. Politicians on both sides will begin to call for restrictions on the Second Amendment and gun control. Legislation will likely get through banning armed protests at a minimum.
    5. Pretty clear why.
     

    Trigger Time

    Air guitar master
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    204   3   0
    Aug 26, 2011
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    SOUTH of Zombie city
    1. 100%
    2. 0% I've predicted it for afew years now.
    3. The worst imaginable. War is evil. It will be very bad. The country and innocent people will suffer. Insurgency is never good.
    4. Insurgency, gorilla war tactics. Civilians targeted by the left. Police targeted or leaving their posts too. Attempts to round up guns, Marshall law. Curfews. Neighbors turning in neighbors untruthfully to get food or money. Look at past conflicts and current ones. That's what to expect.
    5. Power grabs and attempted overthrow of the constitution and trying to go full socialism. Confiscation of guns to control the people.
    .
    I hope it doesnt happen but it would take a miracle
     
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    Wolfhound

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    45   0   0
    Apr 11, 2011
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    Henry County
    I agree with TT on this.

    I would do almost anything to keep it from happening.

    If you haven't seen the elephant then you probably can't imagine how bad things can get.
     

    Trigger Time

    Air guitar master
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    Aug 26, 2011
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    SOUTH of Zombie city
    I'm Catholic. I still believe in miracles. ;) :D
    Hey I'll take anything to up the chances of success and peace.
    Just to add, Civil war isnt like a revolution. We are talking not only govt factions against each other (state vs state) but also brother against brother. We are seeing deep unrepairable divides right now in the seats of power. These cannot be healed unless those people on both sides are replaced through the ballot box. I do believe the ballot box can still be our salvation however I do not believe the people will get their heads out of their ass and use it.
     

    T.Lex

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    I've always thought that the ballot box was our "release valve" for pressures that would lead to armed revolt in other countries. So, we are (basically) in agreement there.

    As long as there's a consensus about the legitimacy of the elections, we should be in good shape. Bush/Gore was a real test that we passed.

    The next one, though, could be much trickier with the context of foreign interference. If that becomes a lever by which to de-legitimize the process, we'll have problems.
     
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