The odds of an event happening

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  • JettaKnight

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    Thor

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    Could be anywhere
    I have seen much of the worlds armpits on bad days, prepping is a smart thing to do. Thinking it can't come here is wishful thinking at best. Good article, thanks.
     

    gregkl

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    Good article. I should start thinking of prepping, at least a little. I know the way we live, I'm days away from being in deep trouble if the zombie apocalypse occurs.
     

    Leadeye

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    But that crosses over into other needs should they arise.

    True, I think it all revolves around being able to be independent, both physically and mentally.

    I always remember all the people who went to the dome during the Katrina disaster. That was the only solution the leadership had for those people and being dependent, that's what they did.
     

    churchmouse

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    True, I think it all revolves around being able to be independent, both physically and mentally.

    I always remember all the people who went to the dome during the Katrina disaster. That was the only solution the leadership had for those people and being dependent, that's what they did.

    Truth. There could be weather or earth shaking situations that drive us away from our safe abodes. We can only pack so much and time/situation dependent maybe not much at all.
    We had dedicated get the hell out of dodge totes packed at the ready. Same with defense.
     

    88E30M50

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    He makes a good point in the article about how prepping is not intended to keep you from getting screwed when the world goes sideways, but instead, letting you get screwed less.
     

    Libertarian01

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    Here is an article from 2012 that predicted a 1 in 8 chance by NASA of us going through a Carrington Effect.

    https://www.wired.com/2012/02/massive-solar-flare/

    The Carrington Effect is basically a massive solar flare that will hit the earth. The flare brings with it a huge amount of energy that can be seen. We missed a big one in 2012 by nine (9) days!

    When one of these hits the damage could be massive. The first known effect of a big one was in 1859. Sparks flew from telegraph lines. One or two telegraph posts actually caught fire. Back in 1859 the only real use of electricity was the telegraph, at least on a wide scale. What would happen today if this happened? Banks computers fried. Many cell phones that are on might be fried. Many factories that use robotics might go down, so replacement "anything" might be weeks or monthes to just begin production again. What about cars? Even if the sparks don't cause gasoline explosions the use of electronics and computers is so extensive you may have thousands of cars just stranded on the roads and highways. How would people get home? How would the highways get cleared?

    My point is that we can ignore everything predictable on earth and should consider another Carrington Effect to be the true face of a global cataclysm.

    Regards,

    Doug
     
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    Two things to consider, one which speaks against the notion and another more neutral:

    -I think his yearly probability calculation is extremely over-simplified. Post-WWII, warfare within 1st-world countries, especially within their borders, has been significantly rarer than previous years. When the author does try to examine a shorter time-frame, he goes from the US to world-wide. Are violent, nation-wide events as likely in rich, 1st-world (higher IQ) countries than poor, 3rd-world (lower IQ) countries? Very doubtful, so measuring the incidence in the Africa and Middle East is largely meaningless.

    -The probability formula is also used to calculate the probability of a "random" event from happening. The 1% chance of flood occurring within a flood plain is a random probability. The same probability is assigned each year, regardless of what occurred the previous year. Random probability calculations are only appropriate for *some* TEOTWAWKI triggers. Good examples of random triggers would be a Carrington 2.0 event (solar flare which knocks out the grid) or a devastating viral outbreak. I have a hard time viewing large-scale political upheaval as a "random" event which has the same probability to occur each year. Political disasters are the culmination of many years' developments. Now after much development and prior to the "explosion", perhaps many random potential triggers exist, but the probability of explosion is increasing over time.

    -Now I don't state the above to say people shouldn't be prepping or that TEOTWAWKI is so unlikely prepping has a negative ROI. I think if we were to look at how peaceful the western world has been the last 70 years and think each given year is as likely to be peaceful as the preceding would be foolish. Certainly, the signs of development towards political upheaval are everywhere: rising nationalism, increasing political polarity, increasing leftist authoritarianism, increased demographic diversity, increased talk of Civil War 2, etc. all point to an ever-increasing likelihood of a significant political event.

    Enough of an analysis of the article, here are my personal thoughts on prepping:
    -There is a ton of logic behind prepping. However, much of that logic existed in the 80s onwards, and those people have been prepping for 30+ years with the need for extensive preps never arising (nationally - I'm excl. localized weather disasters). That being said, if tomorrow the balloon goes up, all those people will be able to say, "I told you so." So for my personally prepping, I don't want to go so overboard I missed out on a ton of life's potential needlessly. I am attempting to make prepping about adopting lifestyle, hobbies, and skills. Instead of just buying stuff, if shooting is a hobby where I train to perfect a skill, well that's healthy regardless of whether or not I need it. It is good mentally, physically, and emotionally to develop skills. Same with gardening, base medical skills, etc. It's not about acquiring stuff. It's about learning and developing skills.
    -All that being said, there is
     
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