DefeatingPropaganda
Plinker
Recently there has been a discussion regarding a certain article on Medium (
). This article on Medium builds a model for the likelihood of a "prepping event" within an 80-year period, treating such an event as completely random (the same probability each year). I commented on that thread, and I don't wish to repeat myself here, but instead put forth a better model for us to consider and discuss.
There are certain random triggers for WORL/TEOTWAWKI. These include a super-virus outbreak, a solar flare knocking out the grid, devastating lone-wolf terrorist attacks, and more. For these triggers, the model from the Medium article is fine. However, I would say the probability for one of those events to occur in any given year is probably much less than the figure used in the article.
For modeling the probability of large-scale political upheaval in any given year, I think we must consider "The Fate of Empires" by Sir John Glubb. In this essay, Glubb posits that empires have a life expectancy and go through a set of shared stages. This is very similar to human beings: (life expectancy 72; stages: baby, toddler, child, teenager, young adult, adult, middle aged, elderly). For individual humans, they may live to be only 15. Yet when selecting randomly from a group, it would be reasonable to expect the selected individual to die 72 years old and develop through those stages.
For empires, the average length of national greatness is 250 years. The stages are: Age of Pioneers (outburst), Age of Conquests, Age of Commerce, Age of Affluence, Age of Intellect, Age of Decadence. One reason it is extremely reasonable to consider this theory today is its independence from modernity: the consecutive ages and resultant "empire life expectancy" have nothing to do with technology OR the system of government for the empire. Instead, they are driven by human psychology. Just like the Bible still applies because human nature hasn't changed, I believe this theory still applies today.
Returning to calculating the probability of WROL in our lifetime:
-Assign the probability of the "random" triggers causing WROL. This is the same for every year, and we will call it P[SUB]random[/SUB].
-Build a model for the probability of the end of an empire in any given year t, where t is # of years after the empire began. P[SUB]political[/SUB](t) would be near-zero at the beginning of the empire, slowly increase over-time, sharply increase after t=200, and begin to level-off some time after t=250.
-Next, we need to consider what the probability of an empire ending results in the territories of the former empire being WROL. Glubb makes sure to point out that the lifespan of the empire and its consecutive ages is very consistent, yet the mechanism by which it falls and the result of the territories after the fall vary greatly. Consider Great Britain. When Great Britain's worldwide empire ceased to be great, the country was still relatively stable and prosperous. Its power outside of its borders shrank tremendously, and it would be reasonable to believe the growth rate of the standard of living was noticeably less than it would have been if it would have remained an empire. On the other hand, consider the Roman Empire. After its fall, much of the territories were constantly the victims of foreign aggression, violent raids, kidnappings which resulted in slavery, etc. If we assume the probability of the aftermath of an empire being WROL is completely random and the same for every empire (extremely dubious assumption, but otherwise determining this probability for USA specifically is a whole other extensive exercise), then we could determine this probability quite easily. Look at the number of empires which had WROL afterwards (N), then look at the total number of historical empires (M). Then this probability is N/M.
-Lastly, we have to determine the start date of the American empire. There are quite a few years which could be used (1776, 1783 (year we won Revolutionary War), 1788 (year constitution was ratified)). Let's assume it is 1783. Then for any given calendar year y, t = y - 1783.
Now the probability we would have WROL in any given calendar year y is:
P[SUB]WROL[/SUB](y) = P[SUB]random[/SUB] + P[SUB]political[/SUB](y - 1783)*(N/M)
Using the above formula, we could also calculate the probability of WROL over the next 50 years.
Advantages of this model:
-Is mainly driven by human psychology, which in relation to empires has appeared to be consistent across all people groups of various geographies, cultures, religions, races, and governments
-Considers how political upheaval is not a random event which simply *occurs* one year (the trigger could be), but instead something which develops over time before going kaboom
-Avoids considering the largely unknown element of how today's extremely different technology influences the probability of widespread violence
Weaknesses of this model:
-The poor assumption that the end of an empire results in the end of the rule of law within its territory is completely random and equally likely for all empires
-Not considering technology at all is part strength and part weakness. It plays such a huge role in the rule of law that not considering it at all seems foolish. Here's one example. One could argue the probability of our empire ending resulting in WROL is greater because of our dependence on modern technology. Hence, N/M is too low.
-Congratulations if you've made it this far! One problem is in an attempt to be much more sophisticated and accurate, this is also quite a bit more technical. The Medium article is a great way to argue the reasonableness of prepping to the masses. Is a model this technical only going to matter to those already prepping?
I would appreciate any feedback or thoughts on the above. If people agree this model is worth considering, I may actually flesh out the proper distribution for P[SUB]political[/SUB] and update the post with actual probability figures instead of just formulas and variables.
HTML:
https://medium.com/s/story/the-surprisingly-solid-mathematical-case-of-the-tin-foil-hat-gun-prepper-15fce7d10437There are certain random triggers for WORL/TEOTWAWKI. These include a super-virus outbreak, a solar flare knocking out the grid, devastating lone-wolf terrorist attacks, and more. For these triggers, the model from the Medium article is fine. However, I would say the probability for one of those events to occur in any given year is probably much less than the figure used in the article.
For modeling the probability of large-scale political upheaval in any given year, I think we must consider "The Fate of Empires" by Sir John Glubb. In this essay, Glubb posits that empires have a life expectancy and go through a set of shared stages. This is very similar to human beings: (life expectancy 72; stages: baby, toddler, child, teenager, young adult, adult, middle aged, elderly). For individual humans, they may live to be only 15. Yet when selecting randomly from a group, it would be reasonable to expect the selected individual to die 72 years old and develop through those stages.
For empires, the average length of national greatness is 250 years. The stages are: Age of Pioneers (outburst), Age of Conquests, Age of Commerce, Age of Affluence, Age of Intellect, Age of Decadence. One reason it is extremely reasonable to consider this theory today is its independence from modernity: the consecutive ages and resultant "empire life expectancy" have nothing to do with technology OR the system of government for the empire. Instead, they are driven by human psychology. Just like the Bible still applies because human nature hasn't changed, I believe this theory still applies today.
Returning to calculating the probability of WROL in our lifetime:
-Assign the probability of the "random" triggers causing WROL. This is the same for every year, and we will call it P[SUB]random[/SUB].
-Build a model for the probability of the end of an empire in any given year t, where t is # of years after the empire began. P[SUB]political[/SUB](t) would be near-zero at the beginning of the empire, slowly increase over-time, sharply increase after t=200, and begin to level-off some time after t=250.
-Next, we need to consider what the probability of an empire ending results in the territories of the former empire being WROL. Glubb makes sure to point out that the lifespan of the empire and its consecutive ages is very consistent, yet the mechanism by which it falls and the result of the territories after the fall vary greatly. Consider Great Britain. When Great Britain's worldwide empire ceased to be great, the country was still relatively stable and prosperous. Its power outside of its borders shrank tremendously, and it would be reasonable to believe the growth rate of the standard of living was noticeably less than it would have been if it would have remained an empire. On the other hand, consider the Roman Empire. After its fall, much of the territories were constantly the victims of foreign aggression, violent raids, kidnappings which resulted in slavery, etc. If we assume the probability of the aftermath of an empire being WROL is completely random and the same for every empire (extremely dubious assumption, but otherwise determining this probability for USA specifically is a whole other extensive exercise), then we could determine this probability quite easily. Look at the number of empires which had WROL afterwards (N), then look at the total number of historical empires (M). Then this probability is N/M.
-Lastly, we have to determine the start date of the American empire. There are quite a few years which could be used (1776, 1783 (year we won Revolutionary War), 1788 (year constitution was ratified)). Let's assume it is 1783. Then for any given calendar year y, t = y - 1783.
Now the probability we would have WROL in any given calendar year y is:
P[SUB]WROL[/SUB](y) = P[SUB]random[/SUB] + P[SUB]political[/SUB](y - 1783)*(N/M)
Using the above formula, we could also calculate the probability of WROL over the next 50 years.
Advantages of this model:
-Is mainly driven by human psychology, which in relation to empires has appeared to be consistent across all people groups of various geographies, cultures, religions, races, and governments
-Considers how political upheaval is not a random event which simply *occurs* one year (the trigger could be), but instead something which develops over time before going kaboom
-Avoids considering the largely unknown element of how today's extremely different technology influences the probability of widespread violence
Weaknesses of this model:
-The poor assumption that the end of an empire results in the end of the rule of law within its territory is completely random and equally likely for all empires
-Not considering technology at all is part strength and part weakness. It plays such a huge role in the rule of law that not considering it at all seems foolish. Here's one example. One could argue the probability of our empire ending resulting in WROL is greater because of our dependence on modern technology. Hence, N/M is too low.
-Congratulations if you've made it this far! One problem is in an attempt to be much more sophisticated and accurate, this is also quite a bit more technical. The Medium article is a great way to argue the reasonableness of prepping to the masses. Is a model this technical only going to matter to those already prepping?
I would appreciate any feedback or thoughts on the above. If people agree this model is worth considering, I may actually flesh out the proper distribution for P[SUB]political[/SUB] and update the post with actual probability figures instead of just formulas and variables.
