2016 Electoral College polling thread

[ArcadiaGP]

Clinton back above 60% in all forecasts

Also:

PPP (D) North Carolina poll (change from last):
Clinton 44 (+1)
Trump 42 (-3)
Johnson 7 (+1)

Debate watchers said Hillary won 53-31

PPP (D) PA poll (change from last):
Clinton 45 (same)
Trump 39 (-3)
Johnson 6 (+2)
Stein 2 (same)

Debate watchers said Hillary won 51-32

PPP (D) Florida poll (change from last):
Clinton 45 (+2)
Trump 43 (-1)
Johnson 3 (-2)
Stein 1 (same)

Debate watchers said Hillary won 52-35

(http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...-battlegrounds-seen-as-big-debate-winner.html)


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[T.Lex]

New poll has HRC +4 in FL, basically right at the MOE.

Could be an outlier still.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Four point shift to Clinton since Suffolk's last poll of Nevada (8/15-17)

Suffolk Poll of Nevada - Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 44-38 with GJ 7, others 2, "none of these" 3 (a NV option), 5 und, and 1 refused

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, that could be painful if it sticks. I think Trump was starting to count on having NV, although he was consistently ahead but still within the MOE.

ETA:
@GPayeushvnshugnhnn

If NV goes blue, CO and FL goes red, can still get to 269.

 

[BugI02]

*

 

[foszoe]

*

now thats saying something!

 

[BugI02]

Its a Kaluza-Klein posting

 

[jamil]

Its a Kaluza-Klein posting

I'm disappointed. I thought it wouldn't look so...flat.

 

[BugI02]

Well, if you're only going to look at it in 4D you'll have that

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Christopher Newport U Virginia poll (change from last):
Clinton 42 (+3)
Trump 35 (+2)
Johnson 12 (-3)

LA Times/USC tracking poll:
Trump 47
Clinton 42

Six of the Seven days now post debate, and still the only poll showing movement to Trump.

 

[T.Lex]

NC looks like it is the main battle ground on the eastern seaboard now. Well, and FL, but that's kinda a given.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

A week ago Trump was +12 on the 538 Nowcast. Today he trails Hillary by 52.

A swing of SIXTY FOUR net points in a week.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, but they still have OH and NC as blue. I think I've said this before, but 1-not-both is my call there. Trump should end up better off than that map, but... well... still doesn't look like 270.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Yowza.

Monmouth University

Monmouth Colorado

HRC 49
DJT 38
GJ 7
JS 3

COSen
Bennet 53
Glenn 35
Williams 4
Menconi 3

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Quinnipiac Florida poll (change from last):
Clinton 46 (+3)
Trump 41 (-2)
Johnson 5 (-3)

 

[T.Lex]

More updates.

Good news for Trump:
+5 in OH - so it seems like a solid lead there, which could spread. Except...

Bad news for Trump:
HRC +5 in FL
HRC +4 in PA
HRC +3 or +1 in NC
HRC +7 in VA
HRC +11 in CO

(Those last couple have been covered already.)

It would be worthwhile for him to figure out how to do better in the next debate. I'm not sure how he can do that, because I'm not sure what will work this year. But, he needs to figure it out.

 

[jamil]

More updates.

Good news for Trump:
+5 in OH - so it seems like a solid lead there, which could spread. Except...

Bad news for Trump:
HRC +5 in FL
HRC +4 in PA
HRC +3 or +1 in NC
HRC +7 in VA
HRC +11 in CO

(Those last couple have been covered already.)

It would be worthwhile for him to figure out how to do better in the next debate. I'm not sure how he can do that, because I'm not sure what will work this year. But, he needs to figure it out.

I read somewhere that Hillary is going to expend more effort in OH. Apparently she thinks there might be a play there. Maybe they discovered a long list of deceased registered voters.

 

[foszoe]

I read somewhere that Hillary is going to expend more effort in OH. Apparently she thinks there might be a play there. Maybe they discovered a long list of deceased registered voters.

They add a few more steps to her climb on the stage at her next rally?

 

[T.Lex]

New poll today has HRC +9 in PA.

Trump out west in AZ and NV.

Pence in VA and... PA. They must figure that he'll do better connecting there. Whatever Donald is doing isn't really working there.

 

[hoosierdoc]

how can Hillary do well in PA when she slams the coal industry and destroys those families? Is it pure urban center voting or loyal unions?