US launches cruise missles into Syria.

[GREEN607]

Here's an interesting and educational read from today's NBC News. Actually, I can't believe NBC came up with this article..... which has a lot of truth and plain facts in it.

Paragraphs 7,8,9 and 15 are especially important. All the paragraphs are pretty short..... so please read the article. -Lee

Iran, Israel clash in race to define 'new rules of the game'

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah. That's an amazing piece to come from NBC. Those must be freelancers or something.

The point about Russian not being an "enemy" but having different interests is... questionable. I mean, yes, they do have other interests, and they may not ALWAY be an enemy, but their interests involve us having less and less influence in the area. That's a problem.

Now, if they get more involved in Hezbollah to the extent of being able to control them, that might actually be beneficial. Russia isn't necessarily anti-Israel. I see it more as an effort to minimize Israel - and thus US - influence.

 

[ghuns]

This has the makings of a great Tom Clancy book. Too bad he's not around to write it.

 

[BugI02]

Yeah. That's an amazing piece to come from NBC. Those must be freelancers or something.

The point about Russian not being an "enemy" but having different interests is... questionable. I mean, yes, they do have other interests, and they may not ALWAY be an enemy, but their interests involve us having less and less influence in the area. That's a problem.

Now, if they get more involved in Hezbollah to the extent of being able to control them, that might actually be beneficial. Russia isn't necessarily anti-Israel. I see it more as an effort to minimize Israel - and thus US - influence.

I don't think Putin would bat an eye about any level of damage to Israel up to and including complete destruction. He would have a great deal more influence, and a freer hand, in the region if they were knocked back on their heels

 

[T.Lex]

I don't think Putin would bat an eye about any level of damage to Israel up to and including complete destruction. He would have a great deal more influence, and a freer hand, in the region if they were knocked back on their heels

I disagree on that.

Israel provides a foil. At least, for the foreseeable future, if Israel is pushed into the see it will be by Iran. That would make them the regional power.

I think Putin would rather use Israel as a proxy for checking Iran (and maybe an islamofascist Syria, if necessary).

 

[BugI02]

I disagree on that.

Israel provides a foil. At least, for the foreseeable future, if Israel is pushed into the see it will be by Iran. That would make them the regional power.

I think Putin would rather use Israel as a proxy for checking Iran (and maybe an islamofascist Syria, if necessary).

Somehow I can't envision Israel opting to flee to the Vatican

 

[JTScribe]

I don't know who all has Facebook, but here's the link to the post:

https://www.facebook.com/john.ringo.90857/posts/10155221677990887

Ringo, for those who don't know, is a New York Times bestselling mil-SF writer, former Airborne, and has lots and lots friends in the know. So when he posts stuff like this it's generally on-the-money.

Copy/paste for those without FB:

Soooo...

Further reporting, such as it is, on the Dair Ezzor Turkey Shoot.


1. Sov... err... Russians built a bridge over the Euphrates which was the designated 'deconfliction line'. Why? Reasons. 'Commite of Nations' or something.


2. 'Hybrid' force of mixed Russian contractors including multiple non-ethnic Russians (Serbs, Kossack, other non Slavics) as well as local Syrian Army 'commandos' attacked across temporary bridge. The 'Russian' side were 'Blackwater' equivalent mercenaries from a company generally called 'Wagner' which is the nom de plume of the boss. (Like if you called Blackwater 'Prince'.)


3. Unit was partially mechanized, battalion strength. (One thing everyone agrees upon is 'about 600-700 personnel.') Had some towed artillery as well as 't-55 and T-72 MBT as well as armored personnel carriers.' (Type unknown.) Full on 'we're taking that position and you're not stopping us' full court press.


4. Unit crossed bridge, arty deployed.


5. Arty opened fire while most of unit was still in approach column formation. (Normal) One portion moved to flanking positions.


5A. Minute the arty opened fire **** GOT REAL REAL QUICK.


6. Reapers took out artillery and most of armor with Hellfire. From the few videos, pretty much before they knew what hit them. There had to be quite a few Reaper drones up or they were feeding guidance to Hellfire from Apaches (see below.)


7. F-15E Eagles came in for clean-up and to check for anti-air defenses.


8. Warthogs showed up just to go BRRRRRRT!


9. AC-130 Spectre started ****ing up their day for the hell of it.


10. To add insult to injury, B-52s which, you know, just HAPPENED to be in the area, just minding our own business, just passing by from Diego Garcia which is a few thousand miles away, on our way to... somewhere... nothing to see here... decided to prove they could drop their entire load as precision guided weapons and just more or less DID A JDAM ARCLIGHT ON THEIR ASS. At that point, more or less because CENTCOM said 'Why not? ARCLIGHT is always pretty to watch...'


11. The whole thing being so over it was ridiculous, AH-64 Apaches basically did 'hostile Bomb Damage Assessment' and complained there were no targets left.


12. Oh, and then the Kurds, to just really **** with these guys, released water from a dam upstream and broke their bridge. So they had to ford back with their wounded.


13. Nobody knows how many dead and wounded. Russians are saying 'only 8 Russian citizens' but that doesn't quite cover the whole of who may have been involved. One repeated number is 200 dead (remember, mixed Syrians, Russians and other ethnics) as well as pretty much the rest of the force wounded. (Not to mention pretty thoroughly demoralized.) One Kurd wounded. Probably fell off a stool laughing to tell truth.


14. Military hospitals in Russia are reliably reported 'overflowing.'


This was much less a 'battle' than a message. Towards the end we had to just be pounding ground to make sure they got it.


Messages, really.


A. Don't ****ing cross that river.
B. Hey, North Korea! LOOK WHAT I CAN DO!
C. Hey, Putin, about Donbas... This is what we can do to your 'freedom fighters' (AKA: mercenaries) at any time.
D. To everyone in general: You need to remember who's boss.


Mattis is playing dumb. 'What Russians? There were Russians? Really? I'm seeing that in the media but I got no briefing on there being Russians in that column. Our bad. Sorry about that.'


Then there's the fact that the strike was NOT approved by the President.


Because he gave CENTOM the approval on things like that.


And CENTCOM handled it like a BOSS.


Oh, and when the forces crossed the river the Russians were informed and informed that we intended to take 'self-defense' actions.


So they can't even say they weren't warned.


I'm not sure we warned them we'd be using BUFF.


This is more the sort of thing I'd expect in late summer.


'****! We haven't expended our budget! Are there any Russians we can **** up very badly with all these unexpended munitions?'


Last thought: It had to be ****ty being on the receiving end of that.

 

[BugI02]

This makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside

 

[dudley0]

Ringo rites some good stuff... this almost sounded like he could have dreamed it up himself.

 

[T.Lex]

Interesting stuff, jamil (NHRN). I don't do book of face, so I appreciate the copy/paste.

Over the weekend, Netanyahu went after Iran, hard.
Israel's Netanyahu attacks 'dangerous Iranian tiger' - BBC News

Now, as the article points out, he's under certain domestic pressures that make it easy to rationalize that he's doing a Clintonian distraction to foreign policy.

But, it did make me think, Bug O'Teal, that I wonder if there's a Russia-Iran agreement reminiscent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, more along the lines of what you described. Russia may not care about Israel, but if they brokered a deal with Iran for spheres of influence (which remain Russia's approach to foreign policy) so as to control Western Syria (or maybe all of it), in exchange for Iran taking a greater role in the rest of the ME.

There would be a certain parallelism with regard to our relationship with Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

 

[BugI02]

Interesting idea, but could they get beyond the cultural conditioning to expect any pact with Iran to end the same way (treachery)? I also don't see Putin/Russia as being all that big of a fan of religious ideology driven actors (given their own vulnerabilities in the "stans") unless they can be kept at arms length. I can see Putin being willing to let the Iranian-backed troops take the brunt of the casualties (as indeed we are with the Kurds) but allowing them an area of control in the country he wants to dominate seems too much like sleeping with the enemy (of my enemy). The religious ideologues are unlikely to accept Assad (alawite=heretic, no?) for long but Putin requires a pliable puppet. How long before the wildest bunch is undermining/attacking Assad. Putin seems to have a high tolerance for risk, but I just see too many ways that can go wrong.

Did you ever read Gibson's Neuromancer ?

 

[T.Lex]

I had to look it up, but I think I read Neuromancer back when I was a kid. Or at least, thumbed through it.

Assad is hanging on - it seems to me - by the grace of Putin and Rouhani. Once they can agree on a successor, well... his best case scenario is exile to Moscow or something.

Or, if the successor is Moscow- or Tehran-backed will be very informative.

Along those same lines, I don't think Iran is as ideological as it used to be. There are domestic forces at work toward secularism that are dangerous to the regime. They'll want to balance the external pressures and timing against the internal ones.

Check out the RT articles about Assad.
https://www.rt.com/trends/syria-bashar-assad-news/

Pretty slim, but does point out he has the support of Russia and Iran.

 

[jamil]

I had to look it up, but I think I read Neuromancer back when I was a kid. Or at least, thumbed through it.

Assad is hanging on - it seems to me - by the grace of Putin and Rouhani. Once they can agree on a successor, well... his best case scenario is exile to Moscow or something.

Or, if the successor is Moscow- or Tehran-backed will be very informative.

Along those same lines, I don't think Iran is as ideological as it used to be. There are domestic forces at work toward secularism that are dangerous to the regime. They'll want to balance the external pressures and timing against the internal ones.

Check out the RT articles about Assad.
https://www.rt.com/trends/syria-bashar-assad-news/

Pretty slim, but does point out he has the support of Russia and Iran.

.

 

[jamil]

.

 

[cayce]

Its really our Special Forces fighting Russian Special Forces, backed by local Syrian fourth rate army.

 

[BugI02]

Maybe now we know what Iran/Hezbollah's quid pro quo entails

Lebanon: Russia's New Outpost in the Middle East? | The National Interest Blog
Lebanon: Russia's New Outpost in the Middle East?

 

[ghuns]

I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist, but I think it's curious that Trump and Netanyahu are both being vigorously investigated at the same time. We know there's Russian involvement in Trump's problems. Wonder if there's any Russian dressing on Netanyahu's salad.

 

[T.Lex]

I'm not generally a conspiracy theorist, but I think it's curious that Trump and Netanyahu are both being vigorously investigated at the same time. We know there's Russian involvement in Trump's problems. Wonder if there's any Russian dressing on Netanyahu's salad.

Probably not. Netanyahu's had a dark cloud for a long time. Going back to his first run as PM.

 

[T.Lex]

Its really our Special Forces fighting Russian Special Forces, backed by local Syrian fourth rate army.

I understand the race to 50 is on, but I'm not sure these are the Russian special forces we're going against.

The Russian guns for hire dying in Syria - BBC News

Yevgeny studied in St Petersburg and, after getting married, moved to Moscow to live with his wife and three children.
Nina says that between 2014 and when he left for Syria, her son went to eastern Ukraine several times. He fought for the pro-Russian separatists in Luhansk.
After Ukraine, he spent a month at a training base in Rostov-on-Don before he was sent to Syria.
There are frequent media reports that fighters for Private Military Companies (PMCs) are trained at a base in the Krasnodar region and are sent to Syria on military planes from Rostov.

I think these Russians are more like poorly trained PMC guys. I heard stories about how some USian PMCs were taking anyone with an LEO or minimal military background during the height of that business model. The Russians seem like they are scrounging even harder than that!

 

[ghuns]

... Netanyahu's had a dark cloud for a long time. Going back to his first run as PM.

And nobody plays the loooooooooooooong game like dem Ruskies.