US launches cruise missles into Syria.

[BugI02]

WW3 starting to simmer. Just waiting for the full boil.

Har Megiddo conveniently located only about 30 miles from the Golan Heights and Syria

 

[T.Lex]

WW3 starting to simmer. Just waiting for the full boil.

True story: there are descendants of Franz Ferdinand still around.

Kinda seems like we're one significant political assassination away.

 

[BugI02]

Based on the major players, I don't think even whacking Putin or Netanyahu would do it. But Khamenei might just do it, especially if it could be blamed on the jews or America (or both)

 

[T.Lex]

Based on the major players, I don't think even whacking Putin or Netanyahu would do it. But Khamenei might just do it, especially if it could be blamed on the jews or America (or both)

I think a more likely scapegoat would be Daesh or maybe even AQ. And, like Franz Ferdinand, there are some more minor players who would fit the bill. Kadyrov in Chechnya, for example. He's totally expendable.

For a bigger splash, the upcoming nuptials of the British Royal Family would make an interesting target.

Like the US reaction against Afghanistan after 9/11, a little global terrorism can go a long way.

 

[BugI02]

I think the Israel - Iran - Saudi Arabia vector is the most unstable vector in the Syria mess, but I can't really game it. If you are going for the true major powers sucked into a war they don't want Archduke Ferdinand type of dynamic, I can see Israel and Iran getting into it, and we would of course back Israel. But I can't see who would be the other side in a proxy war (backing Iran) let alone how it could expand into a major conflict. I could even see the Saudi's backing Israel to a limited extent with their own goals in mind (kind of like how Iran and Russia are backing Assad)

A direct Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia might actually be more likely to trigger The Three than an attack on Israel. Somebody would need to prop up the house of Saud almost immediately and that would almost certainly be us. The prizes in that dustup would be valuable indeed

 

[T.Lex]

I can see that scenario.

The Chechnya thing would poise Putin as the leader in the anti-terrorism coalition - something they've been playing up for a long time. He could trace the roots of such an attack to the remnants of Daesh, which just happen to be near the Kurds and Syrian opposition in/near northern Iraq. He sends tanks that direction to secure the area, some Kurds and American advisors get rolled.

What do we do then? And if Iraq asks us to help defend their border?

 

[T.Lex]

So... this was eerie timing.

Trump Jr wife in hospital after opening white powder envelope - BBC News

Now, you and I both know this is FAR more likely to be just a hoax, like most of these white-powder bits are.

But... what if....

 

[BugI02]

I can see that scenario.

The Chechnya thing would poise Putin as the leader in the anti-terrorism coalition - something they've been playing up for a long time. He could trace the roots of such an attack to the remnants of Daesh, which just happen to be near the Kurds and Syrian opposition in/near northern Iraq. He sends tanks that direction to secure the area, some Kurds and American advisors get rolled.

What do we do then? And if Iraq asks us to help defend their border?

Interesting question. If he sends tanks "in that direction" they either go by ship, which takes forever in modern battlefield terms; or they go through Turkey or Iran or both. I could see such a threat of invasion by godless communists (See:Afghanistan) bringing out the most vicious jihadis and even fomenting a coalition between the Saudi's and Iran possibly even Turkey (with US help). I don't see the risk being worth the reward

Everything Putin could achieve by controlling Syria he could achieve to a greater degree by controlling Iran. Those "crown heads" are the ones who should be sleeping most fitfully. Who's going to rush to their aid?

 

[T.Lex]

So, a path through Georgia, Armenia and northern Iran takes them all the way to Iraq.

In fact, back-channeling that Iran is the real goal could block us from intervening.

 

[BugI02]

*doppelganger*

 

[BugI02]

The conventional wisdom, I believe, is that Putin's oligarch backers wouldn't allow him to do anything that was bad for business; but I really believe that dog has slipped the chain. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a bunch more of them get the
Khodorkovsky treatment with their assets seized by the state; or more ominously, a guided tour of Lefortovo

Smart money says he has a free hand

 

[BugI02]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/12/opinion/the-middle-easts-coming-war.html
The Middle East’s Coming War

 

[T.Lex]

So, it also looks like a US plane may have blown up a T-72. Meanwhile, Russia can't confirm any Russian soldiers were killed in the fighting with the US forces.

Just in case people hadn't heard, the first round of presidential voting in Russia will be March 18. Or, as Putin likes to call it, the only round of voting.

(It might actually go to another round, but the result really isn't in doubt.)

This is a tricky time for Putin, but nothing brings people together more than a righteous war. He just doesn't need that right now.

 

[Trigger Time]

The signs of ww3 have been happening for a while. There's no doubt it could pop off any day. If I was in the middle East id be stocking my bunker with parking space line paint

 

[BugI02]

It wasn't until I read the NYT article that I realized the IDF was locked and loaded and just how little time passed before the attack on the drone control center was pressed home

Lots of dead high value Revolutionary Guard targets, I expect. [do we have a crocodile tears emoji?]

 

[T.Lex]

https://nypost.com/2018/02/13/russians-attacked-american-troops-on-putins-orders/

This article/opinion piece is over-the-top by a former (apparently left-leaning) US military guy and gets some stuff wrong, but gets enough right that I'm wondering if the bloodlust is shared across the country. Or at least INGO.

I suspect we are less inclined to get (more) directly involved at this point, but I could be wrong.

 

[T.Lex]

https://www.rt.com/usa/418748-us-destroys-tank-syria-escalation/

Parts of this are unfunny....

The Russian Defense Ministry says the US targeted Syrian forces advancing against an Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) “sleeper cell” in Deir ez-Zor province.

Moscow has not minced its words when describing its position on Washington’s “defensive” strikes. Vasily Nebenzya, Russian ambassador to the UN, called the US presence in Syria “illegal” on Thursday during a closed-door meeting of the UN Security Council. He reminded council members that “nobody invited them there.”


The Russian Ministry of Defense also weighed in, saying the US attacks “once again proved that the true goal of the continuous illegal presence of US forces in Syria is already not the fight against ISIS international terrorist group, but the capture and control of the economic assets belonging solely to the Syrian Arab Republic.”

That's a clear articulation that the US is protecting Daesh. Using "defensive" in quotes to suggest that we are actually defending the terrorists.

 

[BugI02]

https://nypost.com/2018/02/13/russians-attacked-american-troops-on-putins-orders/

This article/opinion piece is over-the-top by a former (apparently left-leaning) US military guy and gets some stuff wrong, but gets enough right that I'm wondering if the bloodlust is shared across the country. Or at least INGO.

I suspect we are less inclined to get (more) directly involved at this point, but I could be wrong.

Wow! Peters' background is legit, but he comes across in print like Djingo Unchained. Unrepentant BushII Neo-Con?

 

[T.Lex]

Wow! Peters' background is legit, but he comes across in print like Djingo Unchained. Unrepentant BushII Neo-Con?

Yeah, I'm not sure. Take a look at his other stuff. He's a McCain-o-phile. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.) Spills much ink in ways that appear war-mongery to me.

Considering its the Post, he's probably the resident Hawk.

 

[T.Lex]

So, while certain domestic issues emerge to the forefront of the news, reports from Russia relate to Syria.

More actual Russians killed, but without direct responsibility tied to USians.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...sian-security-staff-killed-in-syria-explosion

This one is interesting in a hearts-and-minds way. Radio Free Europe reporting on an interview with the widow of a Russian soldier...err... mercenary killed in Syria.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-syri...ys-thrown-into-battle-like-pigs/29039898.html

Alas, parts of it read like a pro-Putin rallying cry.

"The government should avenge them somehow. There should be something in their memory, so that the wives won't be ashamed of their husbands and their children can be proud."