AR price trends- when will it peak and retract?

[valmoth]

My hypothesis is that there is overpricing of current ARs and at some point in time, the fear will subside and prices will stabilize and eventually go down.

Is anyone aware of any website that is tracking the trend of average AR prices?

In absence of finding anything currently available, I was considering personally monitoring the final daily sales price of a common AR on GB (e.g. a Bushmaster, one sold yesterday for $1715) and keeping an Excel graph that shows how this price may trend in the next 30 days. Would this information be useful to this forum, or is it available anywhere else?

 

[CitiusFortius]

My hypothesis is that there is overpricing of current ARs and at some point in time, the fear will subside and prices will stabilize and eventually go down.

Is anyone aware of any website that is tracking the trend of average AR prices?

In absence of finding anything currently available, I was considering personally monitoring the final daily sales price of a common AR on GB (e.g. a Bushmaster, one sold yesterday for $1715) and keeping an Excel graph that shows how this price may trend in the next 30 days. Would this information be useful to this forum, or is it available anywhere else?

If you're a numbers guy, have the time/desire to track this stuff then yes, it'd be interesting.

The hard part is what does "average ar" mean? Example, pre rush there would be a large price difference between a stock bushmaster and one with optics, backup flip up sights, new trigger, forward grip flashlight & bipod ect.

So....if you can figure out a way to account for that then yes, that'd be sweet.

 

[Cannon762]

Since I've been into firearms I've noticed that there are a million reasons why people jack prices up, and very few why they bring them down. Even *if* nothing happens, I doubt prices would normalize within the year.

 

[willie53]

it would be interesting to see your tracking numbers on the AR prices. Anybody think the big tax they will put on our ammo will do more to us??

 

[in625shooter]

My hypothesis is that there is overpricing of current ARs and at some point in time, the fear will subside and prices will stabilize and eventually go down.

Is anyone aware of any website that is tracking the trend of average AR prices?

In absence of finding anything currently available, I was considering personally monitoring the final daily sales price of a common AR on GB (e.g. a Bushmaster, one sold yesterday for $1715) and keeping an Excel graph that shows how this price may trend in the next 30 days. Would this information be useful to this forum, or is it available anywhere else?

You hit it on the head. It's FEAR period. When prople realize it won't be the end of the world if they don't get to buy one or people just quit buying they will go back down. The problem is people are FEARD into buying them because they think they won't be able to next year or they are feared by other pople who critizes EVERRYONE that doesn't have the latest thing from CALL of Duty 3 etc.

As far as Gunbrowker I wouldn't count on the higher end price. GB seems to have 3 prices.

#1 the low ends what I call Going Out of Marrage sales.(most people in Indiana love these guys it's some kind of twisted humor some seem to get from someone elses negative life experiences/bad luck)

#2 the Middle price range (usually what the guns normally go for fair market prices) If you sell one your self again come up with a story your Wife left you or you lost your job. As I said in #1 it seems a lot of people will jump on it not if they think it's fair but if they think you are taking a hit they are in!

and #3 the High end where obvious the seller is deloiusional (or they believed the sales person at Gander MTN that it was a Seal Team 6 edition or something crazy) People that buy in this range I call the "More money than sense types"

On GB if you just look at all three prices you can come up with an average on what the prices will fetch "Normally"

 

[mfirem19]

I would certainly be interested in a AR tracking system. I for one know what I paid prior to all the raging rush to buy for a sig Sauer m400 od green. After the rush started I then picked up a s&w for $350 more than I paid for the sig. I have seen the change as we all have and would love to see the difference 30,60, or 90 days from now.

 

[HavokCycle]

based on prior trends i'd say somewhere around mid-summer will it normalize.

 

[chraland51]

I do really think that the days of the $599 Olympic Super Plinker or whatever it is called are most likely gone with the wind. I would not be surprised at all to find that there are one or more clauses or provisions in O'Bummercare that tax weapons, ammunition and firearms accessories to help pay for this monstrosity. I also did not know that so many of our firearms were made of silver which they must be as indicated by some of the prices that I am seeing.

 

[HavokCycle]

I do really think that the days of the $599 Olympic Super Plinker or whatever it is called are most likely gone with the wind. I would not be surprised at all to find that there are one or more clauses or provisions in O'Bummercare that tax weapons, ammunition and firearms accessories to help pay for this monstrosity. I also did not know that so many of our firearms were made of silver which they must be as indicated by some of the prices that I am seeing.

yeah i've been curious lately, to see trends in firearms and ammo prices, curious to see how it stacks up.

 

[gunman41mag]

i think the ar-15 has peaked out

 

[reedo]

The frenzy will fade, depending on what happens with Diane Feinsteins bill. When she does not get her anti-gun/anti-american bill to pass-I think that they will slowly, very slowly start creeping down.

 

[SmokinSigs357]

It'll fade when the Christmas/Frenzy AWB credit card bills start rolling in and another wave of different news stories tickle the fancies of the major networks. We live in an A.D.D. world now. Blink your eyes, this too, shall pass.

 

[gun_nut]

I bought an AR-10 complete lower (Armalite) last week on Gunbroker - I paid $60 over list (480$) and picked it up at my local dealer today. I was the only one leaving with anything in the AR platform. The same lower is now listing for $1100. Now I need to find an upper.

 

[Disposable Heart]

Barring legislation, give it one year, just like in 2008. Then the retards that are faced with credit card bills will fill our forums with, "I paid 1.5K and that's what I want out of it" and similar idiocy. Then wonder why they bump the ad for weeks on end and get mad when someone offers fair market value for it. Then they rush over to Hoosier Topics and pitch a fit: "Dem dare guyz on I.N.Gunowners are a bunch of priks"

If legislation passes, then who knows. Never. Maybe never.

 

[coltaceguy]

This won't last, it has no where to go. Hell guns are going for more NOW then the actual AWB in 94.

 

[marcweid]

I think in a couple of months cost will be right where it was a couple weeks ago and with a major surplus. Everyone that has ever thought about buying an AR just did and many with money they didn't really have (credit cards). With that all the demand was basially filled. How many more people really still need one. Clearly all the inventory of every gun was sold out. So now all the gun shops are trying to buy whatever they can and all of the sudden in two months all this inventory starts to shows up (slowly but surely). In this time people will forget how bad they needed that new AR. People will see that suddenly one day there are 10 on the wall again so now things are ok and I don't need to buy. The only people left to buy will be the regular buyers who will by a new gun regardless. But all the first time or very seldom buyers will be gone for the next year if not longer.

The only way I see this not happening is if there is another mass shooting.

 

[Seancass]

I'm surprised how many people in this thread think this AWB thing is going to blow over.

 

[U.S. Patriot]

Honestly, I see it calming down by March. Once people stop freaking out and buying into the Government led fear mongering.

 

[CathyInBlue]

WTB: AR-15 $800

Must be NIB, never fired.
Foliage Green furniture
gas piston system
E-mail me when ready to sell.

 

[croy]

Idk if it'll pass but if it does I really have everything I need