Democrates vs. Gun Violence

[Jack Burton]

Is there a difference worth talking about?

 

[KW730]

Do you have sources for the individual images? Not that I don't trust you, I just feel that this could be easily manipulated.

 

[TyrannicalBullies]

^^^^^^^^Trust but verify

 

[gvonpaul]

I think this is hardly news to those of us already here.

 

[JWAS]

I would love to use this, but wont until it is verified. thanks!

 

[2A_Tom]

Hefe is a link from The Gurdian UK that shows percentage of gun homocides to total murders.

US gun crime map: interactive | News | guardian.co.uk

 

[2A_Tom]

This map shows violent crimes per 100,000, by county

US Crime Rate Statistics & Violent Crime Maps using Crime Mapping from PolicyMap

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Is there a difference worth talking about?

This is too good to be true

Some of the overlaps are very logical...some of the others are surprising.

 

[Jack Burton]

For those asking for sources... alas... this is all that I have.

But I don't doubt it for a moment.

 

[eldirector]

The voting map is easy to verify:
The Urban Electorate: Why Republicans Can't Afford to Concede the City Vote Ever Again - Politics - The Atlantic Cities

I can't find the Gun Violence map anywhere that doesn't mention its ties to Democrats.

Jut going off of other research I've done, it does not look inaccurate, however. I'll keep looking.

 

[2A_Tom]

This bar graph shows rate of violent crime per 100,000, by state.

USA Violent Crime Offenses

 

[emsdial911]

^^^^^^^^Trust but verify

Hey isn’t that the Verizon vs ATT 4G coverage map.

 

[norsk]

Is there a difference worth talking about?

This map is really misleading, so although I like what it is trying to do I don't think it would be a good image to share around. Here are some serious problems with the image:

1. The text "More Legally Owned Guns = Less Crimes" is not supported anywhere by the maps. The maps show ONLY the incidence of gun violence (map 1), and the percentage of Obama/Romney votes (map 2). There is no data whatsoever about gun ownership levels. This glaring error is immediately obvious from only a quick glance at the image.
2. Both "incidence" of "gun violence" are poor statistical constructs. To have any ability to make comparisons, "incidence" (which means occurrence) should instead be something like a rate (e.g. the rate of "gun violence" by 100,000 population). Also, what does "gun violence" mean? This is way too vague to allow any sort of useful analysis.

By just an "eyeball analysis", the map does appear to show a weak to moderate correlation between incidence of gun violence and percent Obama/Romney vote within counties. This of course does not mean, in any possible way, that a higher concentration of Democratic voters leads to more gun violence. To make such a claim would require a causal (not correlative) analysis taking into account several potentially confounding factors. For example, a very basic other factor that jumps out to me when I look at the map is urban areas. Since it is reasonable to suspect that urban areas are more likely than rural areas to have high levels of gun violence, AND that urban areas are more likely to have higher levels of Obama votes, an urban/rural variable would have to be included in any analysis of the causal relationship between gun violence and Obama votes.

My point is that this is image portrays a glaringly poor analysis and totally inappropriate conclusion. However much we may want to believe the conclusion to be true, sharing images like this around the internet makes us look silly at best.

 

[cbseniour]

democrats have never been against gun violence, just us having guns

 

[bluegrassrules]

Hmmm...if it were true? Would like to know.

 

[Bunnykid68]

Just look at the big cities that have high gun violence for your answers. Chicago, NYC, D.C. , how did those cities vote? And who is allowed to own guns in them.

 

[cobber]

Just look at the big cities that have high gun violence for your answers. Chicago, NYC, D.C. , how did those cities vote? And who is allowed to own guns in them.

Even if the map is suggestive and not probative, it makes sense in that most O-voters are in urban areas, which also have more restrictive gun laws (and higher gun crime rates). If you were to map mental illness or STDs it would probably show about the same distribution. Hmm?

 

[norsk]

Even if the map is suggestive and not probative, it makes sense in that most O-voters are in urban areas, which also have more restrictive gun laws (and higher gun crime rates). If you were to map mental illness or STDs it would probably show about the same distribution. Hmm?

But the map ISN'T suggestive of any relationship between levels of gun ownership and gun violence. It CAN'T be suggestive of such a relationship because there is no "gun ownership" data on the map. You just can't say C is related to (let alone causes) B, when the only data is between A and B. There may very well be a relationship between gun ownership and gun crime (in fact, there is), but such a relationship is simply not displayed or even implied by this map.

 

[No2rdame]

Norsk, you are technically correct. Correlation doesn't equal causation. The map may also be misinterpreted as saying that democrats cause a disproportionate number of violent crimes. It might also say that violent crime tends to make voters turn democrat.

Either way, the way I like to interpret the map is that if we ban democrats, we reduce gun violence.

 

[eldirector]

Well, let's compare the demographics for both the Democrat and Republican parties, and the demographics associated with violent crime.

Sources:
For Democrats: Economic Demographics of Democrats & Liberals
From Republicans:
For Crime: FBI — Crime in the U.S. 2011, unless otherwise noted.

Location:
Democrats - East and West Coasts, concentrated in large urban centers.
Republicans - South and Midwest, outside of urban areas.
Crime - Metropolitan counties: 410/100,000
Non-metropolitan counties: 186:100,000

Income:
Democrats - at least 63% are below poverty levels. However, about 60% of the ultra-wealthy are Democrats as well.
Republicans - Higher percentage between $50K and $200K.
Crime - Income inequality (haves and have-not's) is strongly correlated with violent crime (Social capital, income inequality, and firearm v... [Soc Sci Med. 1998] - PubMed - NCBI). Also, poverty has LONG been associated with violent crime (Poverty, Income Inequality, and Violent Crime: A Meta-Analysis of Recent Aggregate Data Studies)

Education:
Democrats - Two distinct groups: those without a highschool diploma, and those with post-graduate degrees.
Republicans - Highschool grads, some college, and college graduates.
Crime - There is a negative correlation between education level and crime (http://economics.uwo.ca/faculty/lochner/papers/educationandcrime.pdf)

Race:
Democrats - roughly 90% of African -Americans vote Democrat, and 60-70% of Hispanics.
Republicans - about 87% non-Hispanic White.
Crime - (murder) 48% White, 49.7% Black

Now, these are a VERY broad set of brushes. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.