Does anyone see an improvement in the economy?

[Justus]

I've lost count of the number of brick-and-mortar businesses in our area that have started and finished within the same year.
There are some commercial zones around here that are more than half empty and have been that way so long that the parking lots are cracked and covered in weeds.

Do any of the self-employed members here see any improvement in the "main street" economy?
I don't, but I can only judge things from my perspective.
My sales (99% online) took the big hit in 2007 and have never recovered.

 

[churchmouse]

I have seen some improvements but they are driven by necessity not desire.
The fed has not been honest with us.

 

[88GT]

Locally, and on a small scale, yes, as evidenced by "Now Hiring" signage.

Oddly oy enough, the housing market would indicate a great improvement.

 

[Evermoore]

I work for a railroad and I would say that we are busy as hell. Car loads are though the roof. Not sure what that says about the overall economy but someone is shipping and receiving all this stuff.. Hell we can't keep auto rack cars at GM, they fill um as fast as we get them there.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Since we're speaking anecdotally, from what is going on at our plant, yes. People are still buying new cars and trucks. We're working overtime, still ramping up a new product, rumors are running wild that another new product is slated for our plant, and project spending has increased.

 

[Ryno300]

Again anecdotally, there are definite signs of improvement out there....local "Now Hiring", strong increases in consumer confidence numbers, and as 88GT said (I'm in the real estate industry as well) the housing market is showing strength. However, the FED continues to keep a monetary policy (nearly 0 Fed Funds Rate) that would say the economy is on life support. I work with a lot of relocation companies that assist Fortune 500 companies...the comments I'm hearing are that productivity is up and corporations are flush with cash, but they are not feeling confident enough to invest largely in new infrastructure. I heard a comment the other day that every recession since WWII has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...something to keep an eye (maybe).

 

[1861navy]

I'm not self employed but I have a good friend who is, and just this year he had to move his store to another location. Since then he has expanded his inventory, and continues to do so, he is going to be offering more services for his customers at the end of this year, and he has had a steady increase in business overall. There are several "Main Street" shops next to his, and I am seeing more and more people at those too. So my guess is yes the economy is improving.

 

[88GT]

Again anecdotally, there are definite signs of improvement out there....local "Now Hiring", strong increases in consumer confidence numbers, and as 88GT said (I'm in the real estate industry as well) the housing market is showing strength. However, the FED continues to keep a monetary policy (nearly 0 Fed Funds Rate) that would say the economy is on life support. I work with a lot of relocation companies that assist Fortune 500 companies...the comments I'm hearing are that productivity is up and corporations are flush with cash, but they are not feeling confident enough to invest largely in new infrastructure. I heard a comment the other day that every recession since WWII has been preceded by an inverted yield curve...something to keep an eye (maybe).

I'm hearing this too.

On that same note: lending institutions are more hobbled than ever in their efforts to loan as recent legislation has required that they control their loans based on some ridiculous mathematical calculations based on a variety of factors. Additionally, IIRC, they are required to retain a minimum amount of cash. That's money that's just sitting there. That is bad for economic growth.

I'm not self employed but I have a good friend who is, and just this year he had to move his store to another location. Since then he has expanded his inventory, and continues to do so, he is going to be offering more services for his customers at the end of this year, and he has had a steady increase in business overall. There are several "Main Street" shops next to his, and I am seeing more and more people at those too. So my guess is yes the economy is improving.

For information purposes only, could you tell us what industry your friend serves? My guess is that the uptick isn't across the board (yet?). Whether it will expand to the full economy remains to be seen, but we can get a better picture of what's going on by knowing what areas are seeing improvement and what areas are still stagnating or having slower growth.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Something occurred to me this week as well, that might fit into this discussion...I usually leave for work everyday at 5:30am. There seems to be more traffic out and about at that time than there was 6 months ago.

 

[Justus]

For information purposes only, could you tell us what industry your friend serves? My guess is that the uptick isn't across the board (yet?). Whether it will expand to the full economy remains to be seen, but we can get a better picture of what's going on by knowing what areas are seeing improvement and what areas are still stagnating or having slower growth.

Re:1861navy's post:
I was wondering that too. There's been quite a few gunshops opening up in No Central IN.

 

[dprimm]

Locally, and on a small scale, yes, as evidenced by "Now Hiring" signage.

Oddly oy enough, the housing market would indicate a great improvement.

yet, if the banks are sitting on inventory to artificially increase market price, is the indication accurate?

I'm not super big into jumping on the conspiracy bandwagon, but it sure is looking like the rumors that banks are sitting on inventory are true. I know there's been one home vacant a half block from me for about 2 years now. It's HUD though, and those usually take longer to process. Another one near me has been vacant for nearly a year. No sign that a listing is imminent for either of them.

from Man, Housing Prices are up

putting foil on my head.

 

[spencer rifle]

Anything having to do with health care or higher education (where .gov has pried it's way in and is throwing our cash around) is where the building is going on now.

 

[IndyDave1776]

If I were to hazard a guess, I would first see little micro-bubbles like this as the value of the fiat currency fluctuates.

Second, as for the railroad business running strong, you have to account for the fact that the feds have been working their asses off through both incentives for the railroads and regulation of trucking at the general level down to ever-increased pettiness in enforcement at the individual level in order to leverage freight off of truck on to trains. This has been going on since Clinton was in office and has continued unabated ever since. Lefties have it in their heads that railroads are better and therefore should be forced on us whether we like it or not.

Third, I have a hard time with counting 'help wanted' signs. Yes, it is a better indicator than the lack thereof, but it beings to mind memories of Clinton crowing about creating jobs which amounted to two $7/hr jobs replacing one $20/hr job, and somehow, this represented an improvement.

Fourth, there are a number of industries which are factored into the statistics which properly should not. Anything .gov-subsidized should not count as a positive since it does not represent productive activity, otherwise it would be self-supporting.

Fifth, while I am no fan of the Federal Reserve, their policies still indicating the economy is on life support, are probably based on a reasonable assessment of the reality of the situation. After all, who better understands how to identify the line between actual economic activity and strength and .gov-fueled, well, self-stimulation?

Sixth, as 88GT noted in her thread on housing costs, the banks appear to be sitting on foreclosed houses. This tells me two things. They see an advantage in sitting on real estate artificially reducing supply and they see a probability that having hard assets will preserve value better than holding greenback dollars. Whether they simply want to do what they can to push the cost of housing back up before people's incomes recover in order to double-dip them on losing their homes and then buying back in at or near top dollar or they see a bigger problem with inflation is an interesting question, but certainly is cause for concern.

 

[88GT]

yet, if the banks are sitting on inventory to artificially increase market price, is the indication accurate?

from Man, Housing Prices are up

putting foil on my head.

Banks sitting on inventory is hardly enough to create improvement across the entire market. Even in the height of the foreclosures, they only counted for about 25% of the sales. Now it's back down to the more historically normal 10-15% of sales.

At any rate, my post in this thread wasn't saying that the housing market is proof that the economy is improving. I was commenting on the fact that the housing market is up which some people would use as evidence that the economy is improving.

 

[PaulJF]

I have 2 businesses involved with real estate. Rentals have gone from 82% occupancy to 96% and are staying longer 2006-2012. Home sale prices increasing and more frequent 2013-2014. This is only my experience and not an indicator of any market,at any time, at any price.

 

[snapping turtle]

Inflation is keeping lots of us working more and saving less. Having two kids going back to school, in sports, wanting normal keep up with the jones items does not help any either. I can't remember taking my wife out to dinner this summer at all or a concert or movie. Sure we don't do it often anyway but once ever 60 days or so we used to get out for dinner at least.

Gas up in price, electricity and propane up, food up big time, (or kids eat more than before also) ammo up in price. Everything seems to cost more or stays the same price buy instead of 16 ounces the package contains 14. Personally I don't think I am any better than pre 2008 but I don't think I am any worse. Stuff just seems to cost more and I have more expenses than I did as kids get older.

 

[warthog]

No to the OP's Subject Line's Question.

 

[easy]

Nope. Went to WM to get milk. 2% was $4.86 gl. So no way.

 

[88GT]

Nope. Went to WM to get milk. 2% was $4.86 gl. So no way.

At walmart? Where the heck do you live? The milk at Meijer here is only$3.17 and Meijer is more expensive than Walmart.

That said, the cost of products is a poor indicator of economic health.

 

[1861navy]

I'm hearing this too.

On that same note: lending institutions are more hobbled than ever in their efforts to loan as recent legislation has required that they control their loans based on some ridiculous mathematical calculations based on a variety of factors. Additionally, IIRC, they are required to retain a minimum amount of cash. That's money that's just sitting there. That is bad for economic growth.


For information purposes only, could you tell us what industry your friend serves? My guess is that the uptick isn't across the board (yet?). Whether it will expand to the full economy remains to be seen, but we can get a better picture of what's going on by knowing what areas are seeing improvement and what areas are still stagnating or having slower growth.

He owns a small market selling a lot of locally produced foods, and some commercial foods as well. I can definitely agree with you on account of improvements lagging or being almost non-existent in some areas. I'm no economics expert, so I can't say whether or not it will carry over, or if it will last.