Ebola on the horizon?

[ArcadiaGP]

Yeah, I mean look at how we are kicking cancer's, Alzheimer's, AIDS' and ALS's arses.

Those aren't wildly contagious!

 

[ghuns]

Those aren't wildly contagious!

But they KILL far more people every year than ebola has in all of human history.

Ebola outbreaks have always burned themselves out in Africa, a continent with medical and hygiene practices than would make a civil war era hospital look like the freakin Mayo clinic. Since we have become a "global village", it was only a matter of time until it made it here. It is a disease that will not flourish in our germaphobic, purell totin, oooh that's gross, society.

Could we see outbreaks here where hundreds die? Maybe, but McDonald's will always be a bigger killer than ebola in Murrica.

 

[T.Lex]

But they KILL far more people every year than ebola has in all of human history.

That we know of. Remember, the symptoms are also similar to malaria and the flu.

Ebola outbreaks have always burned themselves out in Africa, a continent with medical and hygiene practices than would make a civil war era hospital look like the freakin Mayo clinic.

I do not necessarily disagree, but I think it is important to re-iterate that an important group of patients/victims in Africa were medical professionals - even Western medical professionals - who knew the proper precautions, presumably used them, and still got sick.

It is also worth re-iterating that Nigeria and Sengal (who, using your characterization, have medical and hygiene practices the functional equivalent of pre-Civil war hospitals) contained their exposures quickly and without losing very many people. So, it can be done.

I'm less worried about this specific patient than the mechanism by which ebola escaped containment in West Africa.

 

[Enkrypter]

It is also worth re-iterating that Nigeria and Sengal (who, using your characterization, have medical and hygiene practices the functional equivalent of pre-Civil war hospitals) contained their exposures quickly and without losing very many people. So, it can be done.

You were there, Or that's what you heard on the news?

"Quick containment" is also a completely subjective term. An outbreak could wipe out most of the state of Indiana and the rest of the US would call that fairly well contained.

 

[LockStocksAndBarrel]

Thanks' for keeping us up to date on this, T.Lex!

 

[T.Lex]

You were there, Or that's what you heard on the news?

I have sources I trust, some could be considered mainstream, others not. When they all agree, I tend to accept it as "true."

 

[T.Lex]

Ebola a factor in stock drop:
Dow sinks 250 points as economy, earnings questioned

Taking into account the notion, held by many financial gurus, that the market is due for a significant "correction," along with ebola and other global issues (IS, China v. Hong Kong, Russia v. Ukraine), potential for serious, multi-layered crises.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

What preppers are doing about Ebola

 

[T.Lex]

New WHO numbers as of Sept. 28: 7,192 cases, 3,286 deaths. Effectively doubled in September, and came to the US.

Hope October is the month it gets truly contained.

 

[ghuns]

 

[T.Lex]

Some interesting data points from the most recent WHO report, dated October 1.

First, it does not address the US case. Instead, WHO issues a separate alert:
WHO | Ebola virus disease ? United States of America

I believe there to be a suspicious issue regarding contact tracing. WHO is supporting the CDC line:

Identification of close contacts for further daily monitoring for 21 days after exposure is under way. Given that the case did not exhibit symptoms of Ebola during the flights from West Africa, contact tracing of people on the same commercial airline flights is not indicated.

Ok. Fine. Whatever. What about contact tracing to figure out HOW THIS GUY GOT EBOLA? If we accept the premise that it takes close bodily contact, unless this guy is a medical worker (which has been denied in some reports) then he got it out among the general population of Liberia. There have been no reports (that I've seen) that they've been able to track down where this guy contracted the virus so they can put THAT person (or persons) under observation. That seems like an important step.

Second, there are fewer new cases, which is a positive sign. WHO is careful to reiterate that they believe there is still significant under-reporting of cases.

Finally, the DR Congo situation is worsening somewhat. They are up to 70 cases with 42 deaths in the "unrelated" outbreak.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Conspiracy!

Rand Paul Warns of ?Whole Ship Full of Soldiers? Catching Ebola | Mediaite

Infect America with ebola, declare martial law, RULE THE COUNTRY

 

[ghuns]

There have been no reports (that I've seen) that they've been able to track down where this guy contracted the virus so they can put THAT person (or persons) under observation.

THAT person is most likely dead...

Duncan, a Liberian national, may have contracted the virus in Liberia while taking a deathly ill neighbor to the hospital four days before he flew to Dallas to visit family members, The New York Times reported.

Ebola Patient Thomas Eric Duncan's Nephew: I Had to Call CDC

 

[T.Lex]

Ooof. The conspiracy stuff about this makes me a bit loopy.

BTW, ran my own little homegrown mathemagic statesticle analysis and the West African stuff is still on target for ~14k by the end of October. The WHO comment about fewer new cases is a bit misleading. The average daily new cases between reports was at 211 in mid-September and is now down to 128.

As usual, mixed indications. It might actually be slowing down, but it is still growing.

A charity in Sierra Leone says there are 5 new cases every hour.
BBC News - Ebola outbreak: 'Five infected every hour' in Sierra Leone

The statistics seem to support that, overall.

ETA:

THAT person is most likely dead...



Ebola Patient Thomas Eric Duncan's Nephew: I Had to Call CDC

Ah- thanks! That's the first I've heard of that!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-victim-texas-thomas-eric-duncan.html

Mr. Duncan, the first person to develop symptoms outside Africa during the current epidemic, had direct contact with a woman stricken by Ebola on Sept. 15, just four days before he left Liberia for the United States, the woman’s parents and Mr. Duncan’s neighbors said.
...

Mr. Duncan, who was a family friend and also a tenant in a house owned by the Williams family, rode in the taxi in the front passenger seat while Ms. Williams, her father and her brother, Sonny Boy, shared the back seat, her parents said. Mr. Duncan then helped carry Ms. Williams, who was no longer able to walk, back to the family home that evening, neighbors said.

That does not seem to fit the narrative of how much contact is necessary to transmit the disease. It seems to me that "casual contact" can be enough.

 

[LockStocksAndBarrel]

Conspiracy!

Rand Paul Warns of ?Whole Ship Full of Soldiers? Catching Ebola | Mediaite

Infect America with ebola, declare martial law, RULE THE COUNTRY

I missed the conspiracy part in that article.

Also the WHO article failed to mention that he was seen and then sent home from the first hospital where he tried to get treatment.

 

[Jvernon]

I just read most of this thread. It's interesting to see how the attitudes have changed since the first post in July.

 

[LockStocksAndBarrel]

Ooof. The conspiracy stuff about this makes me a bit loopy.

BTW, ran my own little homegrown mathemagic statesticle analysis and the West African stuff is still on target for ~14k by the end of October. The WHO comment about fewer new cases is a bit misleading. The average daily new cases between reports was at 211 in mid-September and is now down to 128.

As usual, mixed indications. It might actually be slowing down, but it is still growing.

A charity in Sierra Leone says there are 5 new cases every hour.
BBC News - Ebola outbreak: 'Five infected every hour' in Sierra Leone

The statistics seem to support that, overall.

ETA:


Ah- thanks! That's the first I've heard of that!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/africa/ebola-victim-texas-thomas-eric-duncan.html

That does not seem to fit the narrative of how much contact is necessary to transmit the disease. It seems to me that "casual contact" can be enough.

That causes me some concern as well.

 

[renauldo]

In 1918-1920 a new strain of flu (H1N1) killed 50-100 million people world wide. Without looking it up case #1 was traced to a young man from Kansas who soon wound up in the trenches of WWI. As I recall there was never a cure found at the time and the disease just ran it's course. The flu was not a third world problem, nor was it limited to the old or very young. The majority of people killed were those in leading their normal lives worldwide and the troops that were stuck in the cesspool trenches of WWI.
Medical breakthroughs and the medical community are seemingly light years ahead of 1918 procedures and treatments. But these pompous practitioners ain't Gods yet. They better be careful. Why do the do gooders insist on involving themselves in Africa's misery. There's plenty of misery in this country to occupy them.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Question time:

If the CDC suddenly came up with a "vaccine"... would you get it?

Yes or No? Why?

 

[T.Lex]

No. Too soon. I'd wait for the law of unintended consequences to play out.