Ebola on the horizon?

[Justus]

Just because I think it's good to keep in mind, and since I haven't posted in a while....Mold can survive bleach, get some pharma grade and not so much, but store bought bleach doesn't easily kill mold. Also, N95 or whatever masks you may chose only filter the air that goes through them. Air will take the path of least resistance and go around the mask. Better than nothing, but not great and I think "a little bit of ebola" is about as bad as "a breath of ebola". No need in thinking that you're safe when you're not is all I'm saying. Please resume the standard paranoia.

What does mold have to do with the ebola virus and what is "pharma grade"?

 

[T.Lex]

New update from WHO:
Ebola virus disease update, West Africa - update 28 August 2014 - WHO | Regional Office for Africa

• The total number of probable and confirmed cases in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in the four affected countries as reported by the respective Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone is 3 069, with 1 552 deaths.
• The outbreak continues to accelerate. More than 40% of the total number of cases have occurred within the past 21 days. However, most cases are concentrated in only a few localities.
• The overall case fatality rate is 52%. It ranges from 42% in Sierra Leone to 66% in Guinea.

Mix of good news and bad news. Good news is that it appears to still be contained. Bad news is that the number of cases is still going up - pretty quickly. Living in those contained areas must be hell.

 

[Justus]

Living in those contained areas must be hell.

Here's a brief description of life in a quarantined zone

A Look Inside a Slum Cut Off by the Ebola Outbreak - Health News - ABC News Radio

 

[T.Lex]

Well, more info on the update.
BBC News - Ebola outbreak: WHO warns that virus could infect 20,000

The WHO assistant director-general said the possibility of 20,000 cases "is a scale that I think has not ever been anticipated in terms of an Ebola outbreak".
"That's not saying we expect 20,000... but we have got to have a system in place that we can deal with robust numbers," he added.
...
On Thursday, Nigeria confirmed its first Ebola death outside Lagos, with an infected doctor in the oil hub of Port Harcourt dying from the disease.

So, in Nigeria, it spread to a new city, a city that is an export hub, and the infected/infectious patient was a medical professional.

That's not good.

 

[Bendrx]

What does mold have to do with the ebola virus and what is "pharma grade"?

It was previously stated the bleach kills about everything. Just an example of that not being the case. Don't think it's safe just because you used household bleach ( <6%). Pharma is "pharmaceutical", probably would have been better stated a "Lab Grade" or reagent (Up to 15%), but I work at a pharmaceutical company, that's just my frame of reference.

TIPS
3. BLEACH... I do not know a single living thing that can survive bleach. No other chemical has the versatility of bleach when it comes to disinfection. A tray of bleach should be kept outside your one working door and anyone who comes IN has to walk through the tray. Also a pump-up sprayer of bleach water should be kept near this door to decontaminate any items that are being brought into the home. Also, dead things can be coated in bleach for a fast and dirty decontamination. And worst case scenario, a person can be sprayed with bleach water if they believe they may have come in contact with an infectious agent.

PS: I'm not saying that the ebola viruses are extra hard to kill, from my understanding they're pretty easy to sanitize for.

http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php

SUSCEPTIBILITY TO DISINFECTANTS: Ebolavirus is susceptible to 3% acetic acid, 1% glutaraldehyde, alcohol-based products, and dilutions (1:10-1:100 for ≥10 minutes) of 5.25% household bleach (sodium hypochlorite), and calcium hypochlorite (bleach powder) [SUP]Footnote 48[/SUP] [SUP]Footnote 49[/SUP] [SUP]Footnote 50[/SUP] [SUP]Footnote 62[/SUP] [SUP]Footnote 63[/SUP]. The WHO recommendations for cleaning up spills of blood or body fluids suggest flooding the area with a 1:10 dilutions of 5.25% household bleach for 10 minutes for surfaces that can tolerate stronger bleach solutions (e.g., cement, metal) [SUP]Footnote 62[/SUP]. For surfaces that may corrode or discolour, they recommend careful cleaning to remove visible stains followed by contact with a 1:100 dilution of 5.25% household bleach for more than 10 minutes.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, more not-good news. Not terrible news, but another indication things aren't exactly moving in the right direction.

BBC News - Ebola outbreak: Senegal confirms first case

Senegal's health ministry has confirmed a first case of Ebola, making it the fifth West African country to be affected by the outbreak.
Health Minister Awa Marie Coll Seck told reporters on Friday that a young man from Guinea was confirmed to have contracted the virus.

So, looking on the bright side, it is not confirmed as the Zaire strain - although since the guy came from Guinea, that is most likely. And, it is only 1 case. Which brings us to another potentially good sign - it does not appear to be an exponential type spread. There are clusters, and the numbers keep growing, but you can (theoretically) control clusters.

For those of us who may be geographically impaired, Senegal is directly north of Guinea. So this doesn't represent a huge geographical extension for the outbreak. The DR Congo one is, for now, classed separately. If it becomes connected with the Zaire strain, that would be a big geographic extension.

On a side note, it is interesting to me that the Ivory Coast has reported no ebola patients. It shares a long border with Liberia and several patients came from areas near that border. I hope their luck continues.

ETA:
Graphed out the progression since July, including the difference between reports. That is, each time it went up, how much it increased. This can give a better visual clue as to how fast the reported cases are coming in.


Big jump here recently, and hopefully that won't be a trend. Otherwise, relatively even.

ETA2:
Did some more charting. If you take the reporting delta (number of new cases reported at each date of reporting) and divide that by the number of days between reports, it significantly evens out those delta lines. So, if 14 new cases were reported and 2 days passed since the last report, each day would get 7 new cases. Using that analysis, the number of cases per report is increasing, but not very steeply.

Using that same approach on the deaths, the number per days between reports is actually decreasing. Hopefully that trend will continue.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, the CDC director (and/or the journalist) is pretty alarmist in this article.
CDC Director: Ebola Outbreak ?Is Spiraling Out Of Control? « CBS Atlanta

he director for the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention says that the Ebola outbreak is going to get worse. Speaking to “CBS This Morning” following his trip to the West African countries dealing with the outbreak, Dr. Tom Frieden explained that they have to act now to try to get Ebola under control.

Now, he may be right. But, some of the data makes it look like it is somewhat controlled. That is, they are keeping it confined to where they know it already is, and when it pops up someplace, they are containing it there, with fewer new patients than in the original places.

It is still a serious threat to the people in the containment areas, so that is small solace to those people. But, for the rest of us... so far, so good.

ETA:
Another alarmist article, courtesy of Drudge:
World 'losing battle' to contain Ebola

Of course, Doctors Without Borders - and apparently the CDC - are willing to dramatically present the case for increased donations/support.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, latest WHO update is not good. No numbers yet, but:
BBC News - Ebola death toll passes 1,900, says WHO

There have been 3,500 confirmed or probable cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.
"The outbreaks are racing ahead of the control efforts in these countries," WHO chief Margaret Chan said.
...
More than 40% of the deaths have occurred in three weeks leading up to 3 September, the WHO says, indicating that the epidemic is fast outpacing efforts to control it.

Looks like there will be a spike in the numbers. If it is a 500 case increase, that would be roughly a 15% increase in less than a week. One thing I'd like to know is if this spike represents "hidden" cases - patients that were undiagnosed 3 weeks ago that they only now found out about - or if they are truly new cases. (That's why I like the charts that average the reported cases over time, it makes up for that unknown factor a little bit.)

The 40% of the deaths were in the last 3 weeks is disconcerting. That could represent either that it is evading containment, or it is (and this is harsh), like a fire, burning through what fuel it has within the containment. Hard to tell right now.

ETA:

Yeah, the new numbers aren't good.
http://who.int/csr/don/2014_09_04_ebola/en/

As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

In Nigeria, there have been 21 cases and 7 deaths.

So, cases went up about 600, deaths went up about 300. Using my time-normalized chart, the most recent trend is for more cases and more deaths. Still looks like ~ 50% survival/mortality rate.

Also, an "unprecedented" number of health care workers as victims.

 

[subtlesixer03]

Thanks for the updates. I have been following them. I have noticed that cases have doubled since i started paying attention at the end of july.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, that's not good, but from a statistical perspective, it isn't all bad. Basically, it means that each patient infected 1 other person. Sucks if you are that person, but it is feasible to control those numbers. The next 3 weeks, IMHO, are going to be critical. If the numbers double again this month, it will be really out of control.

Part of the issue is that they really don't know how many patients are out there that they DON'T know about.

 

[Justus]

Yeah, that's not good, but from a statistical perspective, it isn't all bad. Basically, it means that each patient infected 1 other person. Sucks if you are that person, but it is feasible to control those numbers. The next 3 weeks, IMHO, are going to be critical. If the numbers double again this month, it will be really out of control.

Part of the issue is that they really don't know how many patients are out there that they DON'T know about.

And then there's this:
Nigeria losing control of northeast to Boko Haram - The Washington Post

Ebola in So. Nigeria and these clowns in No. Nigeria, I hope they don't try to intentionally spread the disease.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah - that thought crosses my mind pretty regularly. Suicide bomber, suicide ebola spreader - same diff.

ETA:

I kinda use July 1 as a "start" date. That's about the time s(tuff) got real. About 800 cases and 500 deaths. The numbers basically quadrupled since then, in 2 months, although the percentage of deaths isn't as bad as that now.

Again, that SOUNDS really bad, but it is only part of the story. Once people did start taking it seriously, I think there was real progress in keeping it contained. Those containment efforts are reflected in part by better survival rates.

The other thing is the geographic footprint. It is getting more intense in areas that are affected, but it hasn't yet really busted out of those areas. Yes, there are tendrils going out, but they've been relatively shut down.

 

[T.Lex]

As of the end of last week, cases increased to 3,967 and deaths to 2,105. While that is an increase, the number of new cases/deaths being reported appears to be leveling out. Still running about 50% survival/mortality.

 

[nra4ever]

First case of Ebola in USA possibly in Miami. CDC Retesting Potential Ebola Case at Miami Hospital | NBC 6 South Florida

 

[T.Lex]

Hope it isn't. There have been several (many?) "first world" suspected cases and all (so far) have turned up negative. Odd that this one is being retested. Would be REALLY bad if it was an initial false negative and the person was either released or treated in a way that didn't include all the precautions.

Also, Sierra Leone and Liberia have updated some local numbers, but WHO hasn't updated yet. Both cases and deaths will jump a couple more hundred. New reports are probably leveling off. We may be in a plateau period for the charts.

 

[singlesix]

Anther Ebola patient headed to the U.S.A

Another Ebola patient coming to Emory in Atlanta - CNN.com

 

[T.Lex]

I hate when media goes alarmist.

(From Drudge
Ebola Spreading 'Exponentially' as Patients Seek Beds in Liberia - NBC News

The Ebola virus is spreading exponentially across Liberia as patients fill taxis in a fruitless search for medical care, the World Health Organization said Monday.

Yet, nowhere in the article does it actually explain how the numbers support "exponential" growth. They just don't. Roughly linear, at this point, is how I would describe it. But, that doesn't grab people's attention, does it?

Now, if WHO announces a couple thousand new cases and a similar number of deaths - maybe. They should have more numbers out today or tomorrow. It looks like there may be a spike in Liberia, but Sierra Leone and Guinea seem relatively stable. Nigeria and Senegal are big question marks, along with any other new countries.

ETA:
Well, I guess it is WHO that is raising the alarm.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/08/us-health-ebola-who-idUSKBN0H31RU20140908

"Transmission of the Ebola virus in Liberia is already intense and the number of new cases is increasing exponentially," WHO said in a statement.

No actual update on the numbers yet, though.

ETA2:
Apropos to this subforum, DHS says we aren't ready to fight an epidemic like ebola.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/dhs-not-prepared-to-handle-killer-pandemic-ig-says/article/2553012

And, if the US isn't, then what hope do countries like Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia have.

As a COMPLETE aside, it would be historically ironic if ebola spread from Liberia to the US.

ETA3:
Updated numbers from WHO:

6 Sept 2014:

4,293 cases;

2,296 deaths

http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/132834/1/roadmapupdate8sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1

Here's the strange thing - that's not exponential. Yet. That is the biggest single day jump, particularly when you average it over the time between reports. It is absolutely a spike. Things are getting worse in Liberia - 60% of new cases in last 21 days. Elsewhere, it is about 40%.

In the "new" places, it seems relatively contained.

To double by the end of September, they need to add ~ 3.7k new cases. In roughly a week, they've added 600.

I don't want to be all pollyana about that - it is spreading, and that's bad. But, it isn't exponential (yet) and there are indications that it is not alarmingly out of control.

 

[subtlesixer03]

Tlex I started watching this july 28th. there were roughly 1,200 cases then. thats 44 days ago. thats over 3,000 new cases in roughly 1/4th the time of the first 1,200 cases. 9.000 new cases is what we would have even if things just hold at the present rate of transmition. thats over 13,000 cases by the week before holloween. honestly though i think it will be closer to 20,000. i really would not be surprised if there were 1,000 more cases buy the end of this week.

 

[subtlesixer03]

i just did the math on the last 7 days. 1,220 new cases in one week....... my above post is pretty freak'n close. 7,662 new cases in 6.28 weeks if the rate does not change. goining by day its 7,700. I am rounding up since i figureyou cant have a partially infected case.

Got my info here Contagious Disease Surveillance | Virus Awareness | Ebola Map | HealthMap

 

[T.Lex]

Got my info here Contagious Disease Surveillance | Virus Awareness | Ebola Map | HealthMap

Yeah, that is a neat site (I think I posted it upthread). But, I find that its information is not really accurate. Not far off, but both the numbers and the dates are fuzzy.

The 2 best resources (since July) are the WHO updates and - don't laugh - Wiki. The Wiki crowd-sourcing model is well-suited for this.
Ebola virus epidemic in West Africa - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It is updated usually the same day WHO releases their updates. The graphs take a couple days, but the stat matrix is usually same day.

Starting in July, it did double - 779 -> 1440 (importantly, too, it spread to Nigeria right at the end of July)
In August, it doubled plus a bit more - 1603 -> 3707
So, for September, it would have to get from basically 3703 to >7000. So far, one week in, they've only added about 600.

Plus, doubling is a x2 progression, not a ^2 one.

Check out this interesting comparison of linear, exponential and cubic growth. Looking at it, it looks like the growth is closer to cubic.