Economic forecast for 2012

[Uralguy]

Just in case you are not depressed about things in general. This was sent to me and I thought I would pass it on. The only bright spot is that this article helped me convince the wife to go back to stocking up the pantry. Enjoy.

2012 forecast: Food riots, ghost malls, mob rule, terror

 

[mskendall]

Very interesting. I've been hearing a lot more about the food crisis here to come. Thought the seed vault in the arctic was rather odd too. I was reading up on it at The Global Crop Diversity Trust Seems like everything has to lead to something...

 

[indykid]

There comes a time where people get either totally tired of crap like this, and turn off the tv, stop reading the paper, and unfortunately leave otherwise great websites like this. If I had a crystal ball into the future... I do not. I can make up any claim I want and back it up by any fact I want. With today's information technology you can spin any crisis you want. Food famine, global warming, global cooling, return of the dinosaur, just get the right "facts", ignore the others and have fun.

Imagine, if all those so afraid of tomorrow would do something about it to avert what they are afraid of, life would be so much easier. Don't like the air quality? Stop breathing or invest in portable air purification equipment. Running out of food, start your own victory garden. All that too much for you, just stop breathing, your problems will be solved.

Sorry for the above rant, but I am really getting tired about worrying about whether or not the asteroid will strike the earth, of just bearly miss.

 

[HICKMAN]

Gerald Celente has been getting a lot of press and air lately.

 

[jblomenberg16]

Some truth behind a lot of what is written in that article, and some speculation and conjecture. Don't forget that some of what caused our current economic problems was market speculation.


The dollar is certainly declining as a result of the current global economy. Some of it is the sudden influx of printed cash, but a lot of it is from other factors. I'm studying the current downturn as part of a course that I'm taking for MBA school.

While I won't claim to be an expert by any stretch of the imagination, I don't think that the United States is the only economy in major trouble. Most of the "Western" countries are in simlar trouble, including Great Britain and many in the European union. Many of these countries are fighting hard to keep from entering a period of stagflation. Stagflation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

While government policy is certainly controversial at this time, there are some things that even the sharpest leaders in the Fed would struggle with.

The other thing to keep in mind is that with modernization of our global culture, we have become even much more so a consumer civilization, relying almost entirely on someone else to produce what we need to live our lives. Combine that with an ever increasing population and it doesn't take too much to realize that the global demand for goods is going to continue to increase.

So, at some level demand for goods is always going to be there, especially the essentials, such as food, clothing, and shelter. As long as there is demand, there will always be someone to try to fill that demand.

I think that we're going to be surprised in a couple of ways in the next few years.

1) I don't think things are going to get better very quickly, despite what some of the media outlets would have us think. There is just too much debt load at this point, and that needs to work itself out. To get the economy going again people have to spend money. For a long time much of the growth was made at the expense of debt, meaning that the access to money is going to be tight for the next several years.

2) While the dollar is losing a bit of value, it is also still one of the most widely accepted, and most easily convertable forms of payment in the world. While many countries are now looking to convert some of their dollars into other forms of currency, this is much like what most of us do by "diversifying" our retirement portfolios. Many countries have government reserve accounts that are almost entirely backed by dollars and dollar equivalents. So, while it may be losing some value, it won't go away or become completely worthless, not at least for a very long time until it can be replaced by other assetts.

3) We may continue to slide into a deeper recession, but we won't go through a depression of epic proportions. Like with points 1 and 2, there will continue to be demand for goods and demand for dollars. Many countries rely on exports to the West, and will continue to make goods and sell them here, and the US also has very much the capability to produce a large amounts of goods. So, thinking to basic supply and demand principles, the two will work to balance each other out over the next few years, somewhat independent of policy. Prices won't stay high for very long if the demand doesn't meet the supply, even if there is a currency that is losing value.


4) We will see prices increase on a lot of essential goods, like food, oil, and materials. We will probably actually see price decreases in a lot of the non-essentials like electronics, luxury items, etc. Much of that is going to be because many companies will simply not be able to afford to not sell product. They will have to sell goods to keep a steady stream of cash flow coming in, even if selling at a very small profit or even a loss.



The authors of that article and similar ones are no doubt much, much more educated in economics than I am, so I'm sure they are going to be closer in some of their predictions than I am. But I'll leave you with a closing thought: What would have happened 2 years ago if all of a sudden everyone intentially just quit buying things? Would the world come to an end, enter WWIII? The reality would be a speed bump in the economy, much like what we've seen here, and after a few years it would correct itself.


My advice, stock up and prepare for the worse. Worst case scenario is you will have a surplus of goods that you can and will use in the future. But don't tie up all of your liquid resources in those items, because even though the US Dollar is dropping in value, it is still accepted in just as many (and probably more) places than Mastercard.

 

[teknickle]

Don't forget that some of what caused our current economic problems was market speculation.

Actually, it is much more than that. Market speculation in and of itself does not have an impact overall. Look to 1924 (there was a depression before 1929). One of the problems then was purchasing stocks on margin (AND..not ever having the money to fulfill the obligation in the margin call).

Subprime lending was not the problem.
It was just a symptom and side-effect of government corporatism.
By NOT letting ALL insolvent banks fail (instead, they handed out hundreds of billions of dollars), they socialized the losses for private banks.
Now those billions get used to buy out smaller institutions and to lend out..which in-the-end, creates quadrillions (YES, literally) through derivatives.

The real root of the problem started back in 1913 and built a bubble..that by design was set to eventually fail.

The dollar is certainly declining as a result of the current global economy. Some of it is the sudden influx of printed cash, but a lot of it is from other factors. I'm studying the current downturn as part of a course that I'm taking for MBA school.

What's funny is the the Federal Reserve (which is NOT quasi-government, but a wholly private-owned corporation of International banks) stopped reporting the M3 back in 2005.
Since there truly is no provision for government oversight, the information had always been voluntarily given out.
Then, they just decided to stop.
Why?
Probably because it would frighten people who counted on the dollar.
(Shadowstats provides calculated volume of M1,M2 and M3 money supply).

The cash hasn't "hit the streets" yet from all the spending.
In fact, only around 6% IIRC is ever actually printed. The rest of the money supply is all electronic exchanges between US Dept of Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank.

(and I never read about any of THAT in my MBA courses)

While I won't claim to be an expert by any stretch of the imagination, I don't think that the United States is the only economy in major trouble. Most of the "Western" countries are in simlar trouble, including Great Britain and many in the European union. Many of these countries are fighting hard to keep from entering a period of stagflation. Stagflation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The problem is that, because of the Bretton Woods agreement, and then OPEC (which you could call Bretton Woods2), the rest of the world was pushed into holding dollars.
The world is pushing to get OUT of USDollars and has made HUGE STRIDES since 2002 in doing so.
Dollar index is HALF of what it was in the mid-1980's (which just pits fiat currencies against each other--heck do it against REAL assets like gold and your jaw will drop)

While government policy is certainly controversial at this time, there are some things that even the sharpest leaders in the Fed would struggle with.

At no point in time should you ever assume that these guys are caught off guard. You think they actually go 'whoops. guess I should take another econ course.' Nope.
What is taught in schools does not apply.
(for the same reason that corporations like Haliburton don't do billions of dollars worth of business due to unadulterated capitalism)
Don't be fooled into thinking anyone wants the dollar to survive.
From G8 and G20 summits to IMF and UN talks...heck even the frickin' POPE stated time for a 'one world economic order'.
They WANT the dollar to tank to replace it with a one-world-currency.
Amero? Euro?
Nope.
In the end, we are looking at a basket of currencies that are fixed-ratio and (probably) backed by gold. RIGHT NOW! banks are issuing SDR's to China.
Folks...RIGHT NOW.
Last week, the arab nations said that within the next 9 years, they will be COMPLETELY off the USD for selling oil.
Don't believe that. It won't be ANYWHERE NEAR 9 years from now.
(also caused the sudden jump in gold to 1047).

The other thing to keep in mind is that with modernization of our global culture, we have become even much more so a consumer civilization, relying almost entirely on someone else to produce what we need to live our lives. Combine that with an ever increasing population and it doesn't take too much to realize that the global demand for goods is going to continue to increase.

No.
The downfall was collapse of the culture over the past 100 years.
Not technology or modernization.
People became reared into a borrow-to-consume lifestyle.
Can't pay for that TV now?
Well, you are entitled to it. Get it today!
Make payments for 5 years...
But it is sooo bad that people are paying for groceries and gas on credit cards.
That is SCREWED UP.
Even people that saved money get screwed.
Housing bubble could NEVER have happened (or other commodities get sky-high) if credit wasn't readily available.
Imagine having 70k saved for a homestead.
You find your dream home for 65k.
Awesome.
Now some joker comes along and wants 'your' house more.
They offer 80k on-the-spot and push the price up (and imagine this perpetually over 70 years).
Did they have 80k? Heck no. But what's another 15k when it isn't real money, but just your signature on a dotted line.

Extrapolate this to a country, and you will see the way in which the International Monetary Fund has 'modernized' 3rd world nations like Panama.

They create enormous umbrella of debt and bankrupt a nation.
(quiz: When did the US have its bankrupcy?)

So, at some level demand for goods is always going to be there, especially the essentials, such as food, clothing, and shelter. As long as there is demand, there will always be someone to try to fill that demand.

I think that we're going to be surprised in a couple of ways in the next few years.

There will be a rude awakening for a LOT of people.
For reasons, I cannot get into here, it will be worse than you can imagine.

1) I don't think things are going to get better very quickly, despite what some of the media outlets would have us think. There is just too much debt load at this point, and that needs to work itself out. To get the economy going again people have to spend money. For a long time much of the growth was made at the expense of debt, meaning that the access to money is going to be tight for the next several years.

If anyone tells you that the credit markets need 'thawed', that person telling you that is PART OF THE PROBLEM.
Usury is what created this problem.
BTW, an economy CAN EXPAND without having some unbacked fiat currency get issued by some greedy band.

2) While the dollar is losing a bit of value, it is also still one of the most widely accepted, and most easily convertable forms of payment in the world. While many countries are now looking to convert some of their dollars into other forms of currency, this is much like what most of us do by "diversifying" our retirement portfolios. Many countries have government reserve accounts that are almost entirely backed by dollars and dollar equivalents. So, while it may be losing some value, it won't go away or become completely worthless, not at least for a very long time until it can be replaced by other assetts.

Dollar will soon be dead.
PM's will be storage for real wealth.
This isn't straight-lined economic principles.

3) We may continue to slide into a deeper recession, but we won't go through a depression of epic proportions. Like with points 1 and 2, there will continue to be demand for goods and demand for dollars. Many countries rely on exports to the West, and will continue to make goods and sell them here, and the US also has very much the capability to produce a large amounts of goods. So, thinking to basic supply and demand principles, the two will work to balance each other out over the next few years, somewhat independent of policy. Prices won't stay high for very long if the demand doesn't meet the supply, even if there is a currency that is losing value.

Other countries will not continue to support our debt.
The US cannot continue to be consuming 40% of world's resources.

I would like to finish responding through the remarks (good discussion), but I have to get back IRL.

 

[jblomenberg16]

Thanks for the reply. I'm getting ready to run, so will respond later.

The good news is that we're more or less in agreement, and what you've posted helps strengthen the discussion. I think the important thing that we're both pointing out is that we didn't just happen into this over night, and that it wasn' tjust something that came out of left field.

Many factors have lead up to this point (previous intnational agreements, a society accustomed to living on borrowe time and money, poor decisions on regulations and deregulations, etc), and it will take a lot of work to get out of it.

Also, sounds like from you post that your credentials vastly outweigh my own. While I'm familiar with the terms M1, M2, and M3, I'm not yet confident enough to be able to use the intelligently.

 

[ruger17hmr]

Teknicke and Jblomenberg16, I would like to thank you for the well thought out and intelligent discussions.

As long as there is an entity powerful enough to manipulate the market, this charade of economic boom and bust will not cease to exist. This is simply the wealth building process for the elites of the world.

There was French Revolution, a catalyst, to begin the end of Monarchy.
There was World War II, provided solid foundtion for economy to grow on, to bring the world out of the Great Depression and its after effects.

What will it take to bring the world out of current financial disaster, if the world economic policy(cash infusion) fails to revive economy? The trillions of cash infusion may not be enough to do the job. It may prolong the inevitable collapse for a decade or so. Never under estimate the power of U.S Gov't and its cohorts.

It is only my conjecture, but the conflict large enough to devastate the infra-structure of the world just might be what the elites are hedging their bets on when all else fails. It would take drastic measures to correct the problems of current magnitude. Simply start over!

Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan conflicts will not be resolved in the near future, for I believe they are being groomed for that ultimate war needed to refresh the world and its economy. It is not much different from the chemo and radiation therapy for cancer patients.

 

[jblomenberg16]

The problem is that, because of the Bretton Woods agreement, and then OPEC (which you could call Bretton Woods2), the rest of the world was pushed into holding dollars.
The world is pushing to get OUT of USDollars and has made HUGE STRIDES since 2002 in doing so.
Dollar index is HALF of what it was in the mid-1980's (which just pits fiat currencies against each other--heck do it against REAL assets like gold and your jaw will drop)




No.
The downfall was collapse of the culture over the past 100 years.
Not technology or modernization.
People became reared into a borrow-to-consume lifestyle.
Can't pay for that TV now?
Well, you are entitled to it. Get it today!
Make payments for 5 years...
But it is sooo bad that people are paying for groceries and gas on credit cards.
That is SCREWED UP.
Even people that saved money get screwed.
Housing bubble could NEVER have happened (or other commodities get sky-high) if credit wasn't readily available.
Imagine having 70k saved for a homestead.
You find your dream home for 65k.
Awesome.
Now some joker comes along and wants 'your' house more.
They offer 80k on-the-spot and push the price up (and imagine this perpetually over 70 years).
Did they have 80k? Heck no. But what's another 15k when it isn't real money, but just your signature on a dotted line.

Extrapolate this to a country, and you will see the way in which the International Monetary Fund has 'modernized' 3rd world nations like Panama.

There are certainly a lot of political pressures that are going on behind the scenes and driving a lot of the madness. As long as there is power to be had, there will be power hungry men ready to take it at all costs.

The IMF, has in a way introduced a universal currency with the SDR's from the collective fund. I do find it interesting how some of the new currencies the IMF deals with have names like "Euro-dollars."

What I meant by the "Modernization" was exactly what you alluded to with the borrow to consume mentality. Over the last century, there has been a collective shift from producer based economies to heavily consumer based economies.

With the industrial revolution came efficiencies in production of essantials that weren't even in the wildest dreams of people living in those times. I don't have the stats on me, but in general, look at over the course of the last 100 years or so how many less farmers we have in the US supporting a much larger population.

So, as you mentioned, there are many of us (myself included) that don't have to rely on ourselves to make, grow, or construct any of the items I need to survive. I buy everything, and only on occasion will make something that I need that I can't buy. But even then, that is from resources that I bought.

This is great because I can focus my time in turn working on products and services that in turn other folks with buy to help generate power, mine precious resources, and so on.

Where the problems come form is the "easy money" that people can access. Why is it easy? Because in lending easy money, there is money that can be made in the form of interest. Throw in all the derivatives and other instruments available and it is quickly apparent that much of what we call "Money" is very much funny money that exists only in electronic form.

Banks can loan this money to other banks, which lend it to more banks, as quickly you create money that is built on funny money. In my opinion, the collapse was this funny money suddenly collapsing on itself. For the reasons I mentioned in my first post, I don't think the world economy will completely fall apart to nothing at all. But, I don't think that we'll see the hard charing growth that we've been so accustomed to. Reality is going to set in that much of our wealth is not backed by any real assets.

Equally concerning then becomes the political ramifications of that. What happens when the U.S. Government, already broke and accumulating debt at an alarming pace, can no longer pay?

My answer to the quiz question is that the US was bankrupt already back in the 90s if not earlier. Debts are well above what we can ever hope to pay back, even if we focus our entire GDP to it ( I think right now our debt is something like 80% of our GDP). That in and of itself is an imposibility, since GDP includes government spending, presonal consumption and investment, etc.

What is very dangerous is that to really fix just he US economy, we really need to have a period of time where we do nothing but pay back debt. That also means more taxes, and less government spending. Try to get elected as a politician with that message.

 

[Royal-1]

I would like to add another ripple to the discussion. Peak Oil, and natural gas as well.

I'm almost done reading the book, [ame="http://www.amazon.com/Long-Emergency-Converging-Catastrophes-Twenty-First/dp/0802142494/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1255368461&sr=8-1"]The Long Emergency[/ame] by James Howard Kunstler. Most thoughts on how to get out of this economic mess involve the use of cheap oil...energy and time. Guess what folks, the peak has most likely occurred in oil and it has already happened for natural gas. The easy energy is not going to be around much longer.

You commented on food production in the US and how we are feeding more with less farmers. All has to do with cheap oil.

The book has a really depressing outlook on how we have built our communities, the mega cities and the suburbia sprawl. Neither will be able to continue without cheap energy.

I highly recommend the read.

 

[Que]

Looking back to look forward

That 2009 article was pretty accurate!

 

[windellmc]

Is oil really that expensive? I think few realize how much inflation has actually occurred because of the easy credit money.

 

[NathanJefferson]

Is oil really that expensive? I think few realize how much inflation has actually occurred because of the easy credit money.

Oil is really cheap compared to what it could be - and it is already 5x what it was 10 years ago...

My prediction is that the Euro goes well in advance of the dollar. All of the propping up that the FED is doing to the EU banks is just a way to pull the rug out from under them when the time comes. This doesn't solve the dollars problems but it would buy 1-5 years of 'exporting' our inflation.

We have been lucky enough to export our inflation to the rest of the world and I think everything that can be done to keep exporting that inflation will be done.

 

[John Galt]

The "nice" (in a twisted sort of way) thing is that maybe, hopefully, the chaos is happening faster than the planners can control and the destruction that they had planned on gets away from them, giving us a legitimate chance of actually turning things around. There's always hope!

God, gold (silver) guns and groceries are my only investments for the next 5 years. I trust nothing else.

 

[fireblade]

My People have stuff to keep their minds occupied until the first part of 2012. After the turn of the year, I look for the attention of the people to turn towards world events and the direction this nation is heading. After new years I think is when the panic buying mode is going to kick in - and especially after people start getting their income taxes back.
As 2012 progresses, and the election season turns hostile, there are going to be a lot of propaganda on TV and the internet about the various people running for office. I look for this propaganda to have a side effect on the voters, and that is spreading fear through the general public.

I look for tension between the USA and the rest of the world (especially Iran ,China) to increase, which could greatly affect our oil prices.

One thing i would add the media will be having alot of storys about people and groups who belive in the 2012 doomsday stuff ....media loves drama it sells.... people watch.... in turn people who have never even thought of it before will be buying freeze dried foods,guns ammo etc.....they don't believe it but just in case additude . Every freeze dried foods company i have talked to expect shortages just for that reason in 2012 throw in any other disaster ,or more economic collapes stuff, war etc good luck finding freeze dried foods, ammo etc. we all remember not to long ago there were shortages in the system with freeze dried foods and a couple years ago ammo.

 

[fireblade]

There comes a time where people get either totally tired of crap like this, and turn off the TV, stop reading the paper, and unfortunately leave otherwise great websites like this. If I had a crystal ball into the future... I do not. I can make up any claim I want and back it up by any fact I want. With today's information technology you can spin any crisis you want. Food famine, global warming, global cooling, return of the dinosaur, just get the right "facts", ignore the others and have fun.

Imagine, if all those so afraid of tomorrow would do something about it to avert what they are afraid of, life would be so much easier. Don't like the air quality? Stop breathing or invest in portable air purification equipment. Running out of food, start your own victory garden. All that too much for you, just stop breathing, your problems will be solved.

Sorry for the above rant, but I am really getting tired about worrying about whether or not the asteroid will strike the earth, of just barley miss.

its OK you shouldn't be so angry tho look at it this way,


When it comes to predicting the future it is hardwired in are brains there no stopping it. You use it everyday subconsciously and you don't even realize it . From are past generation its hard wired coded into us to prepare for possible hard times just like they did preparing for drought, weather, animal attacks, other human attacks etc.


They learned to store food from experience from being able to read the signs around them . This is imprinted to the next generation and so on not being able to predict weather, for crops or were to find animals to eat those people died. There alot of truth to gut instinct.

Some other example of hardwiring from are stone age evolutionary family we use emotions and body jester to get that first impression of someone you may call it your gut instinct about them. another one we are quick to classify people, situations into categories good or bad rather than engage in a time-consuming analysis, another is gossip it a way of verbal giving information from stone age till now its still there. Here another we still participate in public competitions for status and chest thumping about are successes men more then woman. and my last example we seek superiority or security in hierarchical system. this all is hardwired in us from the human family tree.

In the same sense those who took it to extreme tribes (WE call cults today) didn't survive either they twisted worships or there surrounding into something it not it didn't some called them self prophets and prophecy death to all with dates signs or blamed other for there problems.most of these tribes ,groups failed through history and those who did change adjusted to be able to survive. This is were modern man confuses prophets or prophecy with environmental predication which is not the same.

Also there were those groups who ignore the signs around them and refused to believe it and call the other groups or tribes crazy and be angry about it. And ridicule those around them in our human past some time they were right nothing happen most of the time tho they were wrong and either died ,or killed and took from other what they needed to survive. or begged for help from other who could help them or just refused to believe it's happing until there death. A good example is the Titanic sinking there was those who believe it wasn't happing refused to see the signs around them until they were in the water.

　

It no different today people take in the news all around them and what going on in there committee family Friend (tribe) . And try to predict what best for there family to survive , let me give you this example you hear its going to be a bad winter from friends and books even weatherman or weather-woman on TV. Next time you are buying food this happens
its a subconscious thought that comes when they are shopping i better buy four instead of one. We are hard wired to recognized possible shortage from the events around us even at a subconscious level some basic instincts we have from our generations of hardships in our human past . We use prediction all around us are clocks, weather forecast , our personal experience with the weather, how we judge people in a split second.

so yes there is more people predicting bad time ahead its all over don't blame them blame the environment we are in and yes there are the other type's the doom gloomier prophets and prophecy types but they been around from the stone age and will be here in the future............my main point is never confuse prophecy with the human ability for prediction of bad times ahead.

 

[longbarrel]

My People have stuff to keep their minds occupied until the first part of 2012. After the turn of the year, I look for the attention of the people to turn towards world events and the direction this nation is heading. After new years I think is when the panic buying mode is going to kick in - and especially after people start getting their income taxes back.
As 2012 progresses, and the election season turns hostile, there are going to be a lot of propaganda on TV and the internet about the various people running for office. I look for this propaganda to have a side effect on the voters, and that is spreading fear through the general public.

I look for tension between the USA and the rest of the world (especially Iran ,China) to increase, which could greatly affect our oil prices.

One thing i would add the media will be having alot of storys about people and groups who belive in the 2012 doomsday stuff ....media loves drama it sells.... people watch.... in turn people who have never even thought of it before will be buying freeze dried foods,guns ammo etc.....they don't believe it but just in case additude . Every freeze dried foods company i have talked to expect shortages just for that reason in 2012 throw in any other disaster ,or more economic collapes stuff, war etc good luck finding freeze dried foods, ammo etc. we all remember not to long ago there were shortages in the system with freeze dried foods and a couple years ago ammo.

The shut down of the power grid? You won't even be able to get gas...It's coming.

 

[dhnorris]

I'm worried now, I may have made a mistake selling all of my guns to by presents.

 

[ruger17hmr]

There comes a time where people get either totally tired of crap like this, and turn off the tv, stop reading the paper, and unfortunately leave otherwise great websites like this. If I had a crystal ball into the future... I do not. I can make up any claim I want and back it up by any fact I want. With today's information technology you can spin any crisis you want. Food famine, global warming, global cooling, return of the dinosaur, just get the right "facts", ignore the others and have fun.

Imagine, if all those so afraid of tomorrow would do something about it to avert what they are afraid of, life would be so much easier. Don't like the air quality? Stop breathing or invest in portable air purification equipment. Running out of food, start your own victory garden. All that too much for you, just stop breathing, your problems will be solved.

Sorry for the above rant, but I am really getting tired about worrying about whether or not the asteroid will strike the earth, of just bearly miss.

Too much information will do that to you!

Live your life daily to the fullest. Each day is a new beginning.
You live your life as you see fit. Everything else is just that a noise.

 

[smokingman]

The shut down of the power grid? You won't even be able to get gas...It's coming.

If the grid goes down for any reason we are in much more trouble than most realize.100+ nuclear power plants go critical.That and of course no fuel,electricity,the just in time supply system dies instantly,and of course law and order would cease to exist especially in urban areas.

Could it happen.You bet.
Human dominance does not extend to our sun(Peak of the current solar cycle is 2012-2013),and there are plenty of humans that would do this in an instant to the entire world if they could(Nuke EMP).

Nasa has been warning for years that we need to harden the grid.
Here is an article from Friday Nov 2,2011.
Stormy sun could knock out power grids - report - Yahoo!