Economic Predictions

[Fletch]

While I don't see a moral issue either, as basic phone plans include talking and txting, the moral issue is that the family should know where their 8 year old child is...school, a friend's house, etc. If an emergency should occur, the child should be taught where to go. I don't subcribe to the notion of relying on electronic means of communication in the event of an emergency

I agree that one should not rely on anything that can break, without having a backup plan. But that doesn't mean I refuse to own a gun because it might misfire.

 

[Doug]

Are you an economist, in that this is your expectation? What's your economic analysis?

I am not an economist.
My predictions are based on conservative thought and knowledge of human nature. When you don't know where the danger will come from, you hunker down and don't spend.
When someone claims he wants to "spread the wealth" and then says he wants to let YOU keep more of your money, and you're NOT on government assistance, you're suspicious. Especially so when Nancy Pelosi says, "The repeal of a tax cut is NOT a tax increase."

Based on the type of "newspeak" I've heard from this administration, I expect them to claim that 10% unemployment is the new "full employment" and it is folly to expect anything better.

OH, and, "It's all Bush's fault."

 

[Lex Concord]

The economy is going to get a lot worse.

Agreed.

I was talking to a buddy of mine this past weekend. When they talk about the uber rich, they are talking about him.

I think the real question here is have you offered your expertise in selection, setup, and defense of the fortress he will soon want/need

Business can't grow without cash, and the government can't make banks lend money. It doesn't matter which group of inmates is running the asylum. The banks are in control of business right now.

While not technically part of the government, the Federal Reserve can aggressively prod (though not truly force) banks to lend. They simply need to reduce the rate of return on excess reserves held at the fed (currently a huge amount of those excess reserves) to a negative number, or penalty. I look for this to happen in the relative short term as one of Bernanke's "tools" to make one last attempt to fire up the economy again.

Edit: As with the other simuli, this will fail miserably, and could be the trigger for "hyperinflation" as hundreds of billions of dollars the Fed created in '08 and '09 are finally unlocked and dumped into the economy.

 

[Lex Concord]

As usual, the problems seem to devolve down to 'too much government interference'. I was up at a reunion of folks from around where I grew up (Chicago South Suburbs) Bunches of people my age are losing their homes, unable to find work, etc. These aren't people who've been collecting welfare; they've been businessmen, union workers, etc. for all their adult lives, but things are so bad in Chicago and its environs that they can't keep up. Interestingly, none of the people I talked to mentioned going elsewhere to seek work. I wonder what that means...?

My guess is that part of them not seeking work elsewhere is that they wouldn't be able to sell their homes without a huge loss. Many variables go into such a difficult decision, pro or con, however.

 

[yotewacker]

I've been employed for all of my life. I started out flipping burgers. Been self employed ever since. It's hard to find employee's that are happy with there job. they are like gold. Today. I get people coming in with no high school diploma. Some even with some college. This new generation of new kids are covered in tattoos. They come in and ask for a pen or pencil to fill out an application. And bring a friend in with them. Most will wear cut off shorts and some type of alcoholic beverage tee shirt.

Most banks are trying to get there cash on hand for the goverment because of the new government regulations. Yes they are calling in notes that are not late. But when John Doe homeowner gets behind on his house payment. The bank needs the money. So they go to Jim Doe and call his note due to get the cash they are behind on. I will not buy another truck until the economy gets better. Which in my opinion will be at least another couple of years. This year was not any better than last year. Now I'm wondering if my health insurance is going to skyrocket like my property taxes did this year. Now I'm told I might have 15% added to my income for health insurance, then pay my 305 income tax on that. Then people ask why my prices have gone up this year. Well not counting all the tax games going on with our Federal Government going on. The price of aluminum and copper have gone up, and I believe gas will hit $3.00 by Xmas. Why would any intellignet sober minded person go in business for himself. When if he works for the Federal Government he can make and average of $75,000 a year plus retirement and plenty of vacations. We live in a screwed of world today. Seems China is the only country with people that has common sense.


Common sense is not so common anymore.

 

[Regionnus Rattis]

I agree that one should not rely on anything that can break, without having a backup plan. But that doesn't mean I refuse to own a gun because it might misfire.

I never said break, but something electronic could be easily rendered inoperative as a result of EMP...so does that mean you have an electronic gun?

 

[Regionnus Rattis]

I am not an economist.
My predictions are based on conservative thought and knowledge of human nature. When you don't know where the danger will come from, you hunker down and don't spend.
When someone claims he wants to "spread the wealth" and then says he wants to let YOU keep more of your money, and you're NOT on government assistance, you're suspicious. Especially so when Nancy Pelosi says, "The repeal of a tax cut is NOT a tax increase."

Based on the type of "newspeak" I've heard from this administration, I expect them to claim that 10% unemployment is the new "full employment" and it is folly to expect anything better.

OH, and, "It's all Bush's fault."

You think the unions and other groups are going to sit idly by and allow a 10% unemployment to be the norm? We are already seeing that this is not the norm and not want people want, through the current elections taking place. Two more months and there is going to be a political firestorm in the elections...hopefully though, people will elect folks who can and will make a difference, like Chris Christie is doing.

 

[Eddie]

Geez, I don't think he was making the point based on morality or advisability of giving a cell phone to a child. I think he was making that point that even the child had one (and if she does, presumably so do the adults and older children, if any) so the monthly costs had to be at or above a certain point.

I was just commenting on the above post about telecom expenses. Around here cellphones for the kids seems to be a "keep up with the Joneses" sort of thing.

 

[Doug]

You think the unions and other groups are going to sit idly by and allow a 10% unemployment to be the norm? We are already seeing that this is not the norm and not want people want, through the current elections taking place. Two more months and there is going to be a political firestorm in the elections...hopefully though, people will elect folks who can and will make a difference, like Chris Christie is doing.

I think the unions will support the democratic party, no matter what happens. The administration bought the UAW by giving it the money that should have been paid to bond-holders (like the state of Indiana).
All it would take is a special import tax on goods made overseas by non-union labor to be paid directly to the big unions. As long as they get their money, they don't care if anybody works. Auto companies paid union dues for the robots that replaced workers on the line; in contract votes, the union controlled how the machines voted.

Or, the administration might allow the unionization of unemployed workers. Join and pay your dues to the UAW and you get unemployment benefits based on union wages instead of your actual wage.

A change in congress would help. But Obama can always veto bills which would turn things around. The animal farm media will continue to bleat, "Republicans, party of No! Republicans, party of No!" and the stupid people will believe it.

Anyway, pray for rain on election day.

 

[Blackhawk2001]

(Snipped)

Sad to say but the only thing that would restore domestic manufacturing would be a civil war in China. I have wondered just which side the government would support if this happened.

Why would you even wonder? We have the current administration's example in Iran, Honduras, and the Middle East. The State Department and the current Administration support the tyrants and terrorists every time.