Federal fires back

[Route 45]

As for the corporate profits graph, if you want me to ride shotgun in the time machine with you to unwind all the 1990s economic policies behind that chart, I'm ready when you are. We tried to vote our way out of it, but, looks like that isn't going well. I'll gladly accept both as being contributors.

If you've got a time machine, my economy will take a sudden turn for the better.

 

[maxwelhse]

If you've got a time machine, my economy will take a sudden turn for the better.

I do, but it's stuck in "future" and seems to be aging me with it...

Have a seat:

 

[whiskeytangofoxtrot]

Just the ones who were not prepared for something like this are the only ones whining. It comes every 4 years or so. Plan accordingly.

 

[thompal]

BTW, $13/hour don't cut it. Seems to me that we used to have a solid middle class where a man could work a job right out of high school and easily provide for a family. What happened?

There are plenty of jobs that pay well right out of high school: HVAC/ pipefitter, plumber, electrician, etc. Nobody wants those jobs. People are stuck in the belief that the only jobs are warehouse, food service, retail.

 

[Route 45]

There are plenty of jobs that pay well right out of high school: HVAC/ pipefitter, plumber, electrician, etc. Nobody wants those jobs. People are stuck in the belief that the only jobs are warehouse, food service, retail.

I think that you are overestimating the number of these jobs available, and underestimating the educational/apprenticeship requirements to obtain them.

 

[foszoe]

I think that you are overestimating the number of these jobs available, and underestimating the educational/apprenticeship requirements to obtain them.

I know when I was coming up you had to know someone to get into those fields.

 

[Amishman44]

There are plenty of jobs that pay well right out of high school: HVAC/ pipefitter, plumber, electrician, etc. Nobody wants those jobs. People are stuck in the belief that the only jobs are warehouse, food service, retail.

I think that you are overestimating the number of these jobs available, and underestimating the educational/apprenticeship requirements to obtain them.

We just had our HVAC system replaced, through a one-man HVAC business, and he can't keep up with the demand and neither can the regular HVAC companies! His 17 year old son is his 'helper' and he pays him nearly $20 per hour for the 20 hours per week he helps! Obtaining an HVAC Certification can be done in 1 semester. For what this guy charged for the installation (which was significantly less than a bigger corporate estimate), he still charged roughly $300 per hour for the tear-out + re-installation of the entire system.

 

[thompal]

We just had our HVAC system replaced, through a one-man HVAC business, and he can't keep up with the demand and neither can the regular HVAC companies! His 17 year old son is his 'helper' and he pays him nearly $20 per hour for the 20 hours per week he helps! Obtaining an HVAC Certification can be done in 1 semester. For what this guy charged for the installation (which was significantly less than a bigger corporate estimate), he still charged roughly $300 per hour for the tear-out + re-installation of the entire system.

Not surprising. One of my best friends dropped out of high school, went into an HVAC paid apprentice program, and within a few years was making low six figures each year plus a company truck. With no student loans.

 

[Mole]

I haven't seen much of these conspiracies about ammo being held back or under-produced around the internet at large. The one place I don't frequent is Facebook, which is where a lot of the crackpot stuff gets made up. Anybody know if these ammo rumors are floating around on there?

 

[GIJEW]

I haven't seen much of these conspiracies about ammo being held back or under-produced around the internet at large. The one place I don't frequent is Facebook, which is where a lot of the crackpot stuff gets made up. Anybody know if these ammo rumors are floating around on there?

It's rumored that fascist-book actually has "community standards" and "fact checkers" so the crackpot stuff are things like "badOrangeManBad caused climate change"

 

[churchmouse]

I know when I was coming up you had to know someone to get into those fields.

Yes you did. As with about any well paying position in a trade the doors are not open to walk ins.
I lucked out totally as to getting in through the cracks and was not actually looking in those areas.
Plus the actual number of those jobs was very low when I hooked up with the right people and they taught me the ropes.
That piece of luck set me up for life.
The young men that have tried to get in the trades as I went along that path seemed to show less and less aptitude for actually using a screwdriver and a wrench. Getting dirty and sweating your butt off stopped more than a few.
These days there is a lot more to being successful in the service industry than just having mechanical skills.

 

[LarryC]

Just the ones who were not prepared for something like this are the only ones whining. It comes every 4 years or so. Plan accordingly.

Yep, several of the old timers (me included) have advised all shooters to accumulate ammo for several years. All it takes is a small effort to purchase TWO boxes of ammo when you are going to the range instead of buying one box you intend to use! Cut out Starbucks, Save up a few bucks and make a Bulk buy of ammo - its much cheaper that way anyhow. Ammo does not eat anything. Stored in a dry place, won't go "bad" in a normal lifetime (I am still shooting some from WW2 and possible older that functions fine and chrono's out like new ammo).

My youngest son and I (he is 50 yo) have collected firearms and ammo for the last 20 -30 years or more. It really is a pretty good investment, as well as letting us "feel good". I am quite sure we could liquidate our collections and make a far better return than the stock market, but it won't happen!

During the last 22 Cal shortage, my son and I didn't buy ANY high priced ammo, however when that was over and surplus ammo drove the price down we purchased about 10k rounds each! With what we already had that's probably a life time supply for us and probably our family's use.

If we wanted to get our money back we could sell half of it and that would pay for it all. We have many thousands of rounds of High power rifle ammo, same with handgun ammo, and enough reloading supplies for at least 30K rounds (excluding some brass).

Almost all the ammo and supplies were purchased in bulk in the last 20+ years for probably 1/4 or 1/3 of today's prices. I hope it doesn't happen but if SHTF, we will not worry about ammo!

These "shortages" have been occurring periodically every election, and sometimes for other reasons for many years. I can understand some newby shooters getting caught short on ammo, but anyone that has been shooting for 5 or 10 years has no right to complain if they can't find ammo!

 

[Bennettjh]

Yes you did. As with about any well paying position in a trade the doors are not open to walk ins.
I lucked out totally as to getting in through the cracks and was not actually looking in those areas.
Plus the actual number of those jobs was very low when I hooked up with the right people and they taught me the ropes.
That piece of luck set me up for life.
The young men that have tried to get in the trades as I went along that path seemed to show less and less aptitude for actually using a screwdriver and a wrench. Getting dirty and sweating your butt off stopped more than a few.
These days there is a lot more to being successful in the service industry than just having mechanical skills.

Absolutely. We see that in the car world as well.

 

[MCgrease08]

Absolutely. We see that in the car world as well.

Pre pandemic I had dinner with a couple of diesel mechanics who service transit buses for a large municipality with a fleet of about 400 buses. They were lamenting that they cannot come close to finding enough young people willing to work on buses. Either they dismiss the mechanic trade altogether, or the ones who do become mechanics all want to work on big rigs.

Apparently the potential to earn $60-70k within the first few years on the job isn't even enough of an enticement.

 

[avboiler11]

Pre pandemic I had dinner with a couple of diesel mechanics who service transit buses for a large municipality with a fleet of about 400 buses. They were lamenting that they cannot come close to finding enough young people willing to work on buses. Either they dismiss the mechanic trade altogether, or the ones who do become mechanics all want to work on big rigs.

Apparently the potential to earn $60-70k within the first few years on the job isn't even enough of an enticement.

My dad is 60 and works two jobs as a diesel mechanic - one for a fleet operator and one for a construction company. The former is an indoor job, the latter outside in all weather with minimal indoor shop time.

Neither can recruit young techs despite VERY solid income and benefits...and the construction job offers just about as much 1.5x overtime as you're willing to work April-October. Of those that do apply, many don't pass the initial or random drug screens. Of those who do pass the initial screen, many quit within 6 months because they want to quit at 4:30pm on Friday and not work Saturday when a job deadline is Monday at 8am or thousands of dollars in penalties occur.

 

[thelefthand]

My dad was an auto worker, basic production line. Hourly wage for that job in 1970 was around $3.25. That equates to $21.80 an hour today. Those jobs weren't all that difficult to get, no college or specialized schooling required.

We had two automobiles. A car or a station wagon and a pickup truck. We had a couple of motor homes throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Vacations out west every year, and a couple of trips to Disney World. Our house wasn't overly large, but we had enough space, and a 3/4 acre lot in a small town. We didn't have central air conditioning, but then again, neither did anyone else. No cable TV, but that wasn't uncommon back then.

No cell phones, but we had multiple CB radios.

Do you think that you could afford an 1100 sq. ft. house and an automobile, and support a family on $13 an hour today? And in today's job market, try telling someone in a job interview that you don't have a cell phone or a computer and watch them laugh at you and throw your application in the trash.

In short, yes I could afford a home, an automobile, and raise a family on $13 an hour. That breaks down to around $27k per year. Would it be an 1100 sq ft home? No, but our first home was a 2 bedroom with 750 sq ft, and the previous owner was raising 2 kids in it just fine. Would it be a brand new car like most GM/Ford/Chrysler employees drive? No, but you can get good dependable transportation for $6K or less. Interviewers don't ask about personal computers or cell phones because they are not allowed to. My parents raised us 3 kids, and when they both retired about 10 years ago, they were making a combined $45K per year, their house was paid off, they had 2 vehicles in decent shape. Mom didn't start working until all the youngest of us was most of the way through elementary school. It was tight, and we raised a lot of what we ate. They had to make good decisions with their money because they couldn't afford to make mistakes. Today, most people making $13/hr also support a 2 pack a day habit, own a smart phone, $100/month cell phone bill, and $100/month high speed internet for their home, all of which are luxury items that are not affordable at $13/hr. If you want those things, better your self so that you're worth more to an employer because the rest of us are tired of buying all this crap for you. No able bodied adult is owed a roof over their head or food on a plate. You want it, go earn it.

$15/hr is more than what 80% of the entire WORLD earns. Why in the world would a person be owed a wage higher than 80% of the rest of the world for doing a job that requires no particular skill and realistically a minimal amount of effort? If you want more than 80% of the world, go do more work than the other 80% of the world does OR do a BETTER job than 80% of the world.

As far as ammo availability, I've never been particularly fond of Federal, but I think they may have just become my go-to source for loaded ammunition.

One thing I would question was a response from someone who said that primers for factory ammo are not produced on the same lines as those sold for reloading. That has not been my understanding. My understanding is that, at least the priming slurry for every primer made in the US comes from the same production area. Further, the key to a good primer is the viscosity of the slurry. This is a manual process that is entirely controlled by the technician that's making the slurry. Primers that are made by the most experienced technician are designated as BR primers. The same process is also used to produce the slurry for priming rimfire cases. So once this process is running at capacity, that's it. It becomes an issue of deciding what you're NOT going to produce. I can't even begin to imagine the cost associated with expanding a process that produces an impact sensitive explosive material...

 

[DRob]

The ammo shortage came up in a discussion at a LGS about the lifetime LTCH going away. I person who is "in the know" advised that ammo will be made available to those who opt to get the covid vaccine with the tracking chip. This vaccine will be administered at the Beech Grove railyards/FEMA detention facility. Of course, it will also render you sterile and provide all your personal info to a Nigerian banker who will then send you several million dollars.

 

[maxwelhse]

The young men that have tried to get in the trades as I went along that path seemed to show less and less aptitude for actually using a screwdriver and a wrench. Getting dirty and sweating your butt off stopped more than a few.
These days there is a lot more to being successful in the service industry than just having mechanical skills.

From what I've seen, it's worse than you think.

In a previous job I had a ton of interaction with a large union pipe fitting/millwright outfit and all of their guys were pushing at least 40, except 1 kid that looked like he probably couldn't buy his own beer yet (kid busted his a** fwiw). I heard some of the younger guys in the plant grumble that they'd like to do that kind of work, but didn't know how to get started. So, I asked the site boss exactly that question. The answer was to go down to the union hall and apply for an apprenticeship. He said almost anyone would be admitted because they needed guys so badly. Starting pay was about $15/hr (well under the wage in our plant), but that's the student labor price. Obviously things improve later on, and quickly. Site boss was a good guy and told me to refer anyone to him directly and he'd give them a card and meet them down there if they needed extra help to get setup.

I spread the word... Nobody went down to the union hall. In fact, nobody even approached the site boss to get an introduction. So, PAID education into a $100k+/yr career didn't even attract one soul.

I went the college way. While I worked tons of crap college jobs I bumped into tons of people that told me the same lie. "I'd do it too if I knew how to get started". I offered to meet anyone who wanted help down at the registrar's office pretty much any time they wanted since I was on campus all the time anyhow. In 6 years over 2 degrees I had 0 takers. None.

Truth is that some people just want to ***** that the world doesn't just hand them stuff. Oh well.

 

[JHB]

When I started my apprenticeship back in the late 60s the company didn't have to pay me minimum wage and they didn't. They also got a subsidy from the federal government because they ran an apprenticeship program.

They paid me $1.35 an hour a line worker at the Tarrytown GM plant made $5.00 an hour. In this day and age I would jump at @15.00 an hour knowing what the future salary would be after finishing.
The kids now a days are lazy and not as smart as they think they are when they pass on a deal like that.

I have no sympathy for people any more when I hear them complain about wadges and job opportunity's.
Today is no different then yesterday if you want something you have to work for it.

 

[Route 45]

From what I've seen, it's worse than you think.

In a previous job I had a ton of interaction with a large union pipe fitting/millwright outfit and all of their guys were pushing at least 40, except 1 kid that looked like he probably couldn't buy his own beer yet (kid busted his a** fwiw). I heard some of the younger guys in the plant grumble that they'd like to do that kind of work, but didn't know how to get started. So, I asked the site boss exactly that question. The answer was to go down to the union hall and apply for an apprenticeship. He said almost anyone would be admitted because they needed guys so badly. Starting pay was about $15/hr (well under the wage in our plant), but that's the student labor price. Obviously things improve later on, and quickly. Site boss was a good guy and told me to refer anyone to him directly and he'd give them a card and meet them down there if they needed extra help to get setup.

I spread the word... Nobody went down to the union hall. In fact, nobody even approached the site boss to get an introduction. So, PAID education into a $100k+/yr career didn't even attract one soul.

I went the college way. While I worked tons of crap college jobs I bumped into tons of people that told me the same lie. "I'd do it too if I knew how to get started". I offered to meet anyone who wanted help down at the registrar's office pretty much any time they wanted since I was on campus all the time anyhow. In 6 years over 2 degrees I had 0 takers. None.

Truth is that some people just want to ***** that the world doesn't just hand them stuff. Oh well.

I've got a friend who is a skilled tradesman. Makes good money, easily six figures. He said the same thing as you, can't find anyone who wants to apply for the job. Even his own son, who is currently doing delivery work, will not apply.

But I can see the flip side. He works constantly, 60+ hours a week and more. And he's always worn out. And I'm not sure he actually likes the job. At some point, you gotta ask yourself if the money means all that much if you can't enjoy it. I can think of no greater hell than making $100k a year doing a job that I despise, and spending almost no time with my family or actually enjoying life. There has to be a balance.