Firearms/AMMO market in the near future

[Derpacoon]

Hey guys,

So ever since the mad rush I've been trying to sort out in my head how things are going to play out in the next couple months. I realize that depending on how the Hill decides to handle things will have a huge impact. I'm just trying to understand how people feel the market will end up in a couple months.

Do people see prices coming back down to pre-rush levels or do you believe that there will be a sustained rise in the price since distributors and stores know that the market can bear these prices?

I just want to hear some peoples opinions. If you share your opinion please try to mention some evidence or support for why you feel that way so we can understand where you are coming from. And, if there are any economists or market analysts out there please keep the terminology simple!

thanks and look forward to what people have to share.

*apologies if this topic is already up, let me know if it is and I will take it down

 

[Leo]

I am going to talk about Winchester or CCI primers here. I do not use third world surplus, and adding them will only muddy the subject. I am also using over the counter at the gun shop prices in this example, not a one time, huge bulk buy, wholesale purchase.

There was a primer/ammo problem in the mid 80's. Before the shortage, I was paying $11-$13 for centerfire primers, they went to $18-$22 until the market stablized.

Before 2007 I was paying $16-$19 for centerfire primers and $24 to $28 for shotgun primers. By 2009 scalpers on the internet were getting above $50/1000. I never saw any store selling below $25 after that.

Several months ago we were still paying $30-$35 for centerfire primers at most shops, or about double what the 1980's price was. Even if the supply catches up and the prices stablize I do not think we will see $30 primers again. I anticipate at least $40/1000 to be the new price.

(I hope I am wrong)

Heck I still remember 10 cent each .30 caliber Sierra MatchKings, and 7 cent .223 GameKings. The good old days.........

 

[Hoosier Glocker]

Prices will remain high as long as people keep buying everything the second it hits the shelves. I do think the demand will slow down gradually, and prices will come down, but it's going to take time. Guns/ammo are expensive, and I don't think average working people can keep buying at this rate forever.

 

[sparky32]

I believe you will see a slow drop in price in the near future and supply
will come back with time, now saying this there is no exact way to figure
out when or how long it will take. In my honest opinion it will take a solid
6 months from now. Prices will never be at what they were 4 months ago
im sure we can all agree on that but should be close in the near future.....

Now that being said I was at a small local LGS this morning and they had 9mm
it was limit 2 boxes, a guy walked in and tried to buy 5 boxes and they told
him no, he got pretty upset and said well how am i suppose to try out the couple
new handguns i bought???? not to mention it was 19.00 a box... a rip off.
Im just glad i prepared for ammo shortages the last couple years... The
best time to buy is when you dont need it.

 

[gunman41mag]

it's going to take a while ammo prices drop

 

[wpmason]

it's going to take a while ammo prices drop

Will it? I mean, I can certainly understand that, but at the same time, it seems like if everyone has stockpiled, once the shelves are full again, it won't be moving out the door quite as fast because people will be shooting through what they've bought and replacing it more slowly. It may not be a long term drop in prices, but if the supply catches up to the point that it's just sitting on shelves and in warehouses, there might be some good deals to be had.

Or am I completely wrong?

 

[LarryC]

Guns and ammo are subject to the same market conditions as all other items. The only difference is that the government may add taxes or other conditions limiting manufacturing or raising the costs of transportation, sales etc.

Otherwise the cost will always be whatever the market will bear - just as anything else. If the market increases and the supply stays the same prices will rise. This is normal. When the profit is high enough others will invest in equipment and produce more of the item, lowering the price.

If there is an excess of the commodity on the market prices will fall until the profit is too low to sustain a business and manufactures will quit producing - cycle will continue until the market and production stabilizes.

The liberals have created a false market by panicking the people with the threat of new laws and media attention to shootings. Unless something else happens - laws enacted etc. I think the market will stabilize in a couple of months on AR's and other guns. In most cases the manufactures have the capability to produce all the firearms the public will purchase in a non panic buying market. However, I doubt any will expand their capacity due to the uncertainty of the market - and possibility of new laws. The ammo is another issue.

Many tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people have purchased firearms that never owned them before. A substantial portion of these will continue to purchase ammo to practice, train - and just enjoy target shooting. Also, many here who found themselves unprepared and without ammo during this panic will "stockpile" when it hits the shelves. This will keep the prices higher than normal for some time - possibly 6 months to a year. Another issue is that knowing the liberals, every effort - legal and illegal, will be made to reduce the import of ammo. So it is quite possible the cheapest ammo you ever find will be what you purchased last fall. IF the liberals are kicked out of office, I'm sure the prices will lower.

 

[pudly]

Will it? I mean, I can certainly understand that, but at the same time, it seems like if everyone has stockpiled, once the shelves are full again, it won't be moving out the door quite as fast because people will be shooting through what they've bought and replacing it more slowly. It may not be a long term drop in prices, but if the supply catches up to the point that it's just sitting on shelves and in warehouses, there might be some good deals to be had.

Or am I completely wrong?

You are correct. Supply and demand works both on the way up and on the way back down. Pretty much the only thing that can prevent the natural adjustment is government interference (like what forced this shortage in the first place). Demand increased far faster than supply, so prices went up. Assuming demand eventually declines and nothing interferes with the supply, then you can absolutely expect prices to come down.

 

[Expat]

I thought they would be leveling off a month ago but they continued on anyway. I am really confused by the continued buying intensity. I am starting to think there must be more of a supply problem than we have been told.

 

[mwcooke]

I think that the manufacturers are still trying to get a feel for when demand with taper off. If they run all their lines at full capacity to flood the market with supply, and then the demand drops out from under them; they end up looking at possible lay offs and short weeks for their workers. Its an extremely difficult market to judge right now.

 

[hornadylnl]

Don't worry, ammo and gun prices will come back down and the supply will normalize. My evidence? The very same people who guaranteed for 5 years straight that if Obama was elected and reelected that he was coming for our guns. Now those same people say that there will be no ban and that prices will go back to normal.

 

[Leo]

If a renewed interest in the shooting sports keeps the market demand high, the production facilities will still not keep up. They would need to expand.

With so much economic uncertainty in the country and major government job cuts due Mat 1st, what company would stake their future and invest in a plant construction project that may take 2-3 years to get running?

 

[lucky4034]

Will it? I mean, I can certainly understand that, but at the same time, it seems like if everyone has stockpiled, once the shelves are full again, it won't be moving out the door quite as fast because people will be shooting through what they've bought and replacing it more slowly. It may not be a long term drop in prices, but if the supply catches up to the point that it's just sitting on shelves and in warehouses, there might be some good deals to be had.

Or am I completely wrong?

Walmart prices are unchanged.... Big stores eventhough people hate them will check prices

 

[tom1025]

Give it until the end of March and you will see things settle back down. Sales are continuing to stay strong because everyone that can file a 1040ez is out blowing there money. By May the classifieds will be saturated with WTS by the very same people who are broke again and in need of money.

Your major ammunition and firearm manufacturers are still shipping at the same level as they were prior to the shooting in December. The only problem is the demand is clearing it off the shelf as soon as it's stocked.

 

[U.S. Patriot]

When the panic stops, prices will come down. Will they stabilize to what they where before thr panic, probably not. Cost of materials, transportation, gas, etc. all go up. Hence, the price of goods go up over time anyways. The problem is, people are willing to pay these high prices for goods. Demand stays high, the supply low, which causes prices to increase. I see people paying $600 for a case of .223, and I think, WTF!. I would do without before I paid that. It comes down to how bad do you want something. Are you willing to pay the price to get what you want. Then you have people who buy items they don't need, and turn it for a profit. Love it, or hate it, it's capitalism. When people stop panic buying, things will settle down.

 

[mwagner]

I foresee prices substaing for awhile but not for an extended period of time. My thought is that people will keep paying the high prices for awhile longer until it finally dawns on them that this is absolutely ridiculous and after awhile I don't believe people's income can keep up the the growing price of the merchandise.

 

[djl02]

There are still companys with resonable prices. I got 16 lbs of Varget yesterday for 302.00 dollars and and 8 lb jug of IMR 4198 for 147.00 Primers were 24.00 per 1k for CCI smalll rifle.I thought that they were very reasonable still.

 

[Leo]

Those are really good prices. Care to share the store? Every place I try is back ordered.

 

[Hosshauler]

I think the crazy prices will end soon but I don't think cheap ammo will return. I have turned to reloading to combat this mess.

 

[J D]

I think it will be a rollercoaster ride for awhile. Supplies will become more stable and prices will eventually drop but not to old levels for some items. There may be mini runs as the politics play out causing new fears. Common calibers of ammo, magazines, and popular parts will be scarce from the retailers who havn't jacked their prices for at least a year if not longer. It will be a time for patience or lots of dollars.