General Russian foreign entanglements thread

[BugI02]

The Allies were sick of war and death; and however self serving it was for them, Russia had ended up on "the right side of history" by the conclusion of The Two

The window closed when they achieved nuclear weapons. But we absolutely should have let MacArthur do the Chinese

Iraq and Afghanistan should reinforce the lessons of history, that it is easier to smash something than to build anything useful out of the rubble. If you had smashed Russia immediately post WWII, then what? The missed opportunity, IMO , was not creating some kind of association with them immediately after the breakup of the USSR/fall of the wall. First rate scientists and abundant natural resources, and we might have kept all those rogue scientists gainfully employed instead of selling their expertise to the highest bidding pariah state

 

[Fargo]

The Allies were sick of war and death; and however self serving it was for them, Russia had ended up on "the right side of history" by the conclusion of The Two

The window closed when they achieved nuclear weapons. But we absolutely should have let MacArthur do the Chinese

Iraq and Afghanistan should reinforce the lessons of history, that it is easier to smash something than to build anything useful out of the rubble. If you had smashed Russia immediately post WWII, then what? The missed opportunity, IMO , was not creating some kind of association with them immediately after the breakup of the USSR/fall of the wall. First rate scientists and abundant natural resources, and we might have kept all those rogue scientists gainfully employed instead of selling their expertise to the highest bidding pariah state

You make some excellent points. China still had Chiang Kia Shek to fill the power vacuum.

Russia has long demanded a strongman, I dunno who would have replaced Stalin. Probably the 1950s equivalent of Putin...

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Russian spy found working at US embassy in Moscow, had full access to secrets.

 

[BugI02]

The article fails to explain how this is Trump's fault, or the result of collusion

 

[Leadeye]

The Russians are either cheap or amateurs, it's easy to buy influence in the government, dictate policy, or make their own laws by paying law/lobby firms in dc like everybody else.

Always follow the money

 

[Fargo]

The Russians are either cheap or amateurs, it's easy to buy influence in the government, dictate policy, or make their own laws by paying law/lobby firms in dc like everybody else.

Always follow the money

IMO, they don't really have an end goal other than to disrupt. It is retaliation for our disruption of their economy/government after the Ukraine strong arm.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Russian spy found working at US embassy in Moscow, had full access to secrets.

The Secret Service claims it had provided The Guardian with refutation of the “Russian spy in US embassy” story, but the story ran anyway - the refutation being, it was the person’s job to liase with Russian security agencies

 

[NKBJ]

If Russophobia were cured who would be the enemy of choice?
Somebody has to be the enemy for crying out loud or budgets get cut.

 

[T.Lex]

If Russophobia were cured who would be the enemy of choice?
Somebody has to be the enemy for crying out loud or budgets get cut.

The US has plenty of people willing to be our enemies.

I'm not sure Russia is #1, but they are toward the top of the list.

 

[BugI02]

The US has plenty of people willing to be our enemies.

I'm not sure Russia is #1, but they are toward the top of the list.

If you Iook at what you judge to be that top ten, has it changed much since Trump or is it just that the gloves are off? Do you think China or Saudi Arabia, for example, have ever been our friends? Do you think that Canada or the EU are now our enemies?

 

[T.Lex]

If you Iook at what you judge to be that top ten, has it changed much since Trump or is it just that the gloves are off? Do you think China or Saudi Arabia, for example, have ever been our friends? Do you think that Canada or the EU are now our enemies?

Caveat: the list is in flux, from what I can tell. More than ever. Well, maybe its more like a spectrum. If ROY is the "bad" end, then a bunch of countries are red-shifted now. I think Trump's list would be very different from mine, and he's acting like his list is the only one that matters. (Maybe it is; it matters more than mine.)

Your time delimiter of 2 years is hard to gauge. Without thinking more on it, my answer is "no." Russia, China, Iran, remain the top 3 (although their specific order within that group could be debated). Then you've got their satellite states/proxies. SA and Pakistan aren't exactly enemies or allies, but they are friends of convenience.

Trump has weakened our relationships with friends. That does not make them enemies. It just makes them less reliable friends than they used to be.

 

[Birds Away]

Caveat: the list is in flux, from what I can tell. More than ever. Well, maybe its more like a spectrum. If ROY is the "bad" end, then a bunch of countries are red-shifted now. I think Trump's list would be very different from mine, and he's acting like his list is the only one that matters. (Maybe it is; it matters more than mine.)

Your time delimiter of 2 years is hard to gauge. Without thinking more on it, my answer is "no." Russia, China, Iran, remain the top 3 (although their specific order within that group could be debated). Then you've got their satellite states/proxies. SA and Pakistan aren't exactly enemies or allies, but they are friends of convenience.

Trump has weakened our relationships with friends. That does not make them enemies. It just makes them less reliable friends than they used to be.

You'll have to remind me of when they were "reliable". Well, other than when it came time for us to pay them.

 

[T.Lex]

You'll have to remind me of when they were "reliable". Well, other than when it came time for us to pay them.

Serious? EVERY one of our allies was unreliable? (We're time-limiting this to the post-WWII era, right?)

 

[BugI02]

Caveat: the list is in flux, from what I can tell. More than ever. Well, maybe its more like a spectrum. If ROY is the "bad" end, then a bunch of countries are red-shifted now. I think Trump's list would be very different from mine, and he's acting like his list is the only one that matters. (Maybe it is; it matters more than mine.)

Your time delimiter of 2 years is hard to gauge. Without thinking more on it, my answer is "no." Russia, China, Iran, remain the top 3 (although their specific order within that group could be debated). Then you've got their satellite states/proxies. SA and Pakistan aren't exactly enemies or allies, but they are friends of convenience.

Trump has weakened our relationships with friends. That does not make them enemies. It just makes them less reliable friends than they used to be.

Perhaps come at it from a different angle. If we were struck by a DPRK EMP surprise attack and our non-military infrastructure severely weakened, which people on your friends list would rush to give succor and which rush to take advantage of our situation

I think 'frenemy' is really a thing, and it predates Trump by quite some time. I think you could enumerate our real friends on one hand, the rest are "what have you done for me lately"

 

[T.Lex]

Perhaps come at it from a different angle. If we were struck by a DPRK EMP surprise attack and our non-military infrastructure severely weakened, which people on your friends list would rush to give succor and which rush to take advantage of our situation

I think 'frenemy' is really a thing, and it predates Trump by quite some time. I think you could enumerate our real friends on one hand, the rest are "what have you done for me lately"

Your "frenemy" and my "friend of convenience" are probably significantly overlapping groups.

In your EMP scenario, I think those coming to our aid would have more reservations since Trump than when Obama was in office. And I hate you for making me sound like Obama was even marginally competent in foreign policy.

I think it is too soon to judge Trump overall for foreign policy. He's done some things I very much approve of. The tariff thing is still being sorted out - that could be a big loser or a big winner. I'm not sure it is a bet we had to make, but we've made it.

Since this is the Russia thread, though, I think Trump is totally getting played by Putin.

 

[BugI02]

I would agree to perhaps a more pastel version of your last point. I'm not sure Trump had a very strong hand to play relative to Putin's in the areas we rub together

I look at his actions, which are significant on the scale available. Anti-armor weapons for Ukraine, plus conventional arms and skilled training. Pushing the rest of NATO to man up. The tariff deal with the EU including ramping up LNG purchases from the US - that could be a more telling and long lasting strike against the Russian economy than sanctions. As long as countries like Germany get 1/3 or more of their gas from the Russians, not only won't sanctions have an effective bite but those countries are vulnerable to manipulation and energy blackmail. Need we even go into what a joke the German military is? I've posted material on it before.

From money.cnn.com

The European Union imports 69% of its natural gas, according to the European Commission. The latest available data show that 37% of the imported gas comes from Russia, about 33% from Norway and 11% from Algeria.


According to official government data, Germany imports roughly 94% of its natural gas. In 2015, the most recent year for which official data are available, 35% of the imports came from Russia, while 34% was sourced from Norway and 29% from the Netherlands.


While the European Union vowed to cut its dependency on Russian gas after the crisis in Ukraine, Russian exports to Europe have risen to record levels in the past two years.

IMO Europe has pursued risky foreign policies precisely because they expect the US to always be able to get them out of whatever trouble they get into. You may conclude that the so-called 'weakening' of the alliance plays into Putin's hands or that Putin is 'playing' Trump in that area, but I think he (Trump) recognizes that the alliance is already on its deathbed and is willing to risk it flatlining for an equal chance that it can be re-invigorated. I think he's right to caution them on countries like Montenegro and how we see the limits of Article 5. The lessons I draw from the start of WWI tell me he has the right of this 'six degrees of military entanglement' issue

Every NATO battle plan I've ever been aware of has relied on forward based US troops and the host country's armies to blunt and delay any assault until reinforcements can be rushed in. In the case of Germany, they lack any serious military capability and who's to say if they have the will to fight back - else they would insist on maintaining their capabilities. By their becoming so economically entangled with the Russians, Putin may acheive political control of Germany without firing a shot. If he controls Germany, he can certainly exercize some control over the rest of the EU and he's already selling them lots of gas, too

I've heard Russia described as a "well armed gas station" but Putin has played his hand masterfully. That's why I'm willing to grant a de minimus version of your last point; Trumps play (from a weaker hand) has been a bit flamboyant

 

[T.Lex]

Just so I'm clear on your starting point, the US has had a weaker hand in Euro foreign policy than Russia? (I think the only other area we "rub" is in the ME, but that's a much more difficult table to evaluate strength of hands.)

 

[T.Lex]

Timely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45100160

Russia continues to occupy, and govern, part of Georgia.

Worth remembering that the Crimean did not happen in a vacuum.

 

[BugI02]

Just so I'm clear on your starting point, the US has had a weaker hand in Euro foreign policy than Russia? (I think the only other area we "rub" is in the ME, but that's a much more difficult table to evaluate strength of hands.)

I guess we'll see. Russia has used energy dependence as leverage. We are beginning to use export dependency as leverage

I'm not sure if the hand was weaker or we lacked someone ruthless enough to play to win

Please list the effective actions taken by the EU in the wake of South Ossetia, the Russo-Georgian war and the destabilization of Ukraine and occupation of Crimea. It's in their own back yard; if they won't arm and aid those willing to resist, should we?

Are you suggesting a return to proxy wars (let's save aguing over 'return' for another time)

 

[BugI02]

Timely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45100160

Russia continues to occupy, and govern, part of Georgia.

Worth remembering that the Crimean did not happen in a vacuum.

Fixing the whole world, with partners who are only willing to hold our coat, is not going to happen

Pick you battles, only the second coming can end all suffering. I think you and I have always differed on where to set our sights