How long before things go south if the SHTF?

[Mij]

As I read through this thread I’m wondering/realizing most folks posting have never been poor. Or learned from their elders the lessons of the Great Depression. As I’ve said many times in this forum, what a lot of folks think of as being prepared we call that Tuesday.

And the preppers that have months of food and supplies will enjoy it until someone comes and takes it. And they will, count on it.

Hope they have artillery.

 

[Route 45]

It's not like it hasn't happened before.

I've posted this before, but it fits perfectly here:

LINK: https://powersfirearmstraining.com/resources/Words from a Bosnian Survivalist.pdf

 

[daddyusmaximus]

Depends on the event that triggered it... and exact what you mean by "SHTF".
Is power out? If so, nationwide or only in spots?
Is the internet down? Did the banks all close up? Are the trucks running?

There are / can be, a lot of variations on "SHTF".

IMHO, it wouldn't take long though probably no matter the cause. People are spoiled and get upset too easily these days.
They take to the streets because of a news story they don't like... so if they thought they couldn't get to the cash in their bank accounts, (or use their EBT cards) that would be a huge trigger.

If the internet is still up for a while, the wrong people can coordinate mobs.
If it's down... the rage would probably actually grow faster, but at least it would be less coordinated.

It's first of the month. I pay a lot of my bills with the VA disability check I get each month.
Me... If the country (world) is going **** up I'd like to get to that money and spend it all on liquid fuels real quick.

Once the truck drivers decide to call it quits and head for home, it's over.

 

[daddyusmaximus]

^^^^
3 book trilogy, read em all.

Follow up with Jim Rawles, Patriot.

All fictional but will give you a different perspective.

4 books.

"Five years after" is out.

 

[Cameramonkey]

If the COVID-19 lockdown was any indication, pretty much immediately. And, just like during COVID, their actions will make little sense.

Remember how all the toilet paper was gone, but the Kleenex remained?

There is actually perfect sense to this.
There is a single stream for kleenex. There are two streams for TP. That is the difference.

From a covid post I did years ago:

Funny thing about that. That was the result of a carefully balanced system that got turned on its ear.

There are two streams for TP; commercial and consumer. Consumer uses virgin fibers, commercial uses recycled fibers. (why its not as soft as consumer grade) And the machines used to produce the two are engineered differently.

So for years manufacturers have run two streams that provided enough TP for both sides. Then suddenly the shutdown happened and the need for commercial tanked, and the need for consumer spiked. But there was no good way to do consumer production in the commercial plants. So the commercial plants stopped, the consumer plants couldnt keep up, and we ran out. Meanwhile in warehouses around the world were billions of commercial rolls sitting. Rolls that were incompatible with our roll holders at home.

 

[bwframe]

...what a lot of folks think of as being prepared we call that Tuesday.

Yep.

 

[Cynical]

Read the book "One Second After."

It's not a nuke destruction scenario, it's an EMP scenario. The structures are there, but no electricity, water, food resupply, etc.

I have the the 3 book series and by accident one them is autographed by William Forstchen. I bought it from a used bookstore on-line and in it was a business card from Montreal college where the author works. FYI the author is a Purdue grad of all things. Highly recommend reading as well.

 

[blain]

Everything will be fine for a while.
Governments will print create and distribute cash money.
This will give the aristocracy even more time, than they've already had, to amass provisions, wealth & security.
After they're all set, the spigots will be turned off, then "It's on like Donkey Kong".

 

[INP8riot]

People are losing their marbles on a daily basis undrr normal circumstances! My wife just read that the SSRI's aren't working the eay they used to before they got the vaccine. That means these people's legal meth isn't working any more. If shtf, no trucks, no food, drugs, gas, etc.

It won't take long in a society that lives meal to meal being delivered to their doors. It'll get ugly fast. Under a week in my estimation. There won't be time to get any last minute provisions without great risk!

 

[Cynical]

4 books.

"Five years after" is out.

You’re right, I forgot about that one. After I read the trilogy I looked for more books and read the release date for 5 years after was August of this year I think. I read it the whole book in a day like the rest of them. In their own way they are entertaining and almost as informative as Foxfire books.

 

[Magyars]

One major issue will be population density.
Cities will be the hardest hit and first to go bonkers.
Suburbs next.....the farther from large populations the least impacted, at least for a while. It would give country folk an opportunity to organize.

 

[Steve]

The larger the population density, the shorter the fuse. How many people have no idea what it means to "prep" for the unknown? No power, no cell phone, no A/C, no water coming out of the faucet? It will only take a couple of days before things will get ugly. And if you live in an apartment in a larger city, it won't take long before you turn on your neighbor. Odds are good that you have less than 3-4 days of food or water on hand and hungry people do crazy things, particularly if there are children involved.

 

[Wabatuckian]

There is actually perfect sense to this.
There is a single stream for kleenex. There are two streams for TP. That is the difference.

From a covid post I did years ago:

I'm more talking about the consumer side of things.

When the shutdown was announced, my kids got off the bus and said they weren't going back tomorrow.

So I took them to Walmart. I told them to remember that they saw, that it was historic, and a lesson about humanity.

Toilet paper was flying off the shelves. Kleenex wasn't. We grabbed our usual couple packages of TP and went on our way. We saw people with their carts literally full of nothing but TP.

Later, we ended up wiping our butts with Kleenex. But you know what? Kleenex feels goooood. I don't use it now only because I'm not sure how good it is for the sewage system.

Likewise, Ramen was gone for a bit. Canned veggies pretty much remained.

Nobody seemed to be able to form a plan. They just went out and bought what they thought they needed.

I talked to my wife and my dad. I asked Dad if he had plans should food be disrupted. He, a non-hunter, responded that they had plenty of deer out there. I built more SST rounds for my Mosin so we could be ready to take 'em if need-be, and checked my supply of CCI Subsonic .22 for small game and cast some more balls and bought a couple extra pounds of powder for the muzzleloaders. Never did have to kill any deer or small game.

I think a lot of folks handled the lockdown wrong. We treated it like a vacation from life almost. I never did shut down Smith-Sights, and, in fact, did a lot of business. My wife was an essential worker in the medical field and so didn't get to stay home.

Besides working, though, gas prices were such that I was able to take the kids all over the place in the Jeep so long as it was away from people, pretty much exploring all of Mississinewa and Salamonie and surrounding areas. Fished damn near every day. Off-roaded and just generally enjoyed life.

Other folks stayed locked up, watching TV, eating Ramen, slowly going insane and generally being miserable.

And I think that's an important lesson, too: the level of disaster is often determined by your response to the occurrence.

 

[gassprint1]

The larger the population density, the shorter the fuse. How many people have no idea what it means to "prep" for the unknown? No power, no cell phone, no A/C, no water coming out of the faucet? It will only take a couple of days before things will get ugly. And if you live in an apartment in a larger city, it won't take long before you turn on your neighbor. Odds are good that you have less than 3-4 days of food or water on hand and hungry people do crazy things, particularly if there are children involved.

The way is see it, is all the lazy stupid people live in cities and have no sense of what it really means to live.

 

[Combat Engineer]

If the sun ever freaks out again and we have a Carrington level event...it'll be worldwide.Us old farmers are going to be in demand.Not to mention combat vets farmers.

 

[Tomahawkman]

If we have learned anything over the last couple years with the pandemic, riots, political tensions, its that all of the above is for sure possible. I never though in my lifetime Id see anything like January 6th. 2,000 people taking over the capital building.. Seeing how people were reacting over the whole TP shortage, watching the grocery stores get cleared out at the start of the lockdowns and the protests after the whole George Floyd situation. All of this was the kick in my ass to really get serious about understanding the consequences of mass civil unrest and how little it actually takes to start getting dangerously close to a wide spread issue. I've started getting more prepared for a grid down defensive living situation as that is likely the most immediate and probable issue we could face here in the US. The fact that the entire city of Atlanta's Law Enforcement just checked out during the riots was crazy.

For people in those large metropolitan areas that may find them selves in the middle of a city wide riot/looting frenzie id say it could hit the fan at a pretty severe level within hours of "insert triggering event"

 

[blain]

I never though in my lifetime Id see anything like January 6th. 2,000 people taking over the capital building.

Was it anything like the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago?

 

[Pepi]

Already has and we just don't see it yet. It's a dream

 

[Tomahawkman]

Was it anything like the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago?

I was born in 95 so I stand by my original statement lol.

 

[fullmetaljesus]

Remember when covid was hitting and the stores ran out of toilet paper in a few days? Or when a snow storm threatens and the stores‘ shelves are emptied in hours? I remember when 9/11 happened and people were in lines at gas stations that afternoon, filling gas cans.

It would be hours not days.

This. Inside of 24 hours everyone's life would be insanely different. Even if you hunker down and "bug in". You will be tormented by the sounds of screams and gun fire.