Sen. Joe Donnelly, D-Ind. 2018...

[actaeon277]

I'm tired of the youtube political advertisements that CAN'T be skipped.

 

[gmcttr]

...I want to start seeing donkeys and elephants again...

Donkeys??? You mean to tell me I've been wrong all of my life? I though those were Jackasses.

 

[jamil]

Translation: "T did a great job clarifying my post. The virtual keyboards on iPhones are sometimes inadequate to the task of communicating nuanced arguments in a minimum of characters. Yet, because I used the English keyboard setting, it still properly rendered the language typically used on this forum, correct?"

The virtual keyboard on iPhones is retarded. It’s really sucked badly since iOS 10.

 

[KG1]

The virtual keyboard on iPhones is retarded. It’s really sucked badly since iOS 10.

Yes it is. Sometimes it turns a well thought out articulate post into incoherent babble. (That's my excuse anyway)

 

[KittySlayer]

All Democrats have avoided saying Democrat or putting the donkey on their signs around here for a while now. Republicans too but not as much as the D's. I think that's shady. I want to know where your loyalties are. Who owns you? And if they say they are their own person, they are full of crap. I want to start seeing donkeys and elephants again.
I see this on the media too. They will avoid labeling (D) on people when it's a negative story but you sure as hell can see them use the (r) if it's a negative story. I think it even flashes

As hard as Joe works to convince us he is more of a Republican than a democrat I have to wonder why he hasn't switched parties. Heck, Lugar ran as a Republican for decades irrespective of his underlying tendencies.

 

[KittySlayer]

Ax swinging Joe's new ad bears a striking resemblance to the ad for Jonah Ryan, a fictional house candidate on the show Veep.

Also watch how easily one of the logs splits when Joe hits it. It was clearly two pre-split pieces they just put back together.

HBO's 'Veep' gag and new Joe Donnelly political ad are basically the same

Having had to watch the commercial a dozen times today already I also noticed that Joe is no woodsman. I also noticed the brand new axe and a pair of gloves that could still have the tags attached. While I don't expect Joe to be splitting wood for his RV trips you would think someone on his team would know a person that does physical labor and would have a well used axe to use as a prop.

 

[ATOMonkey]

It would be nice to get some honesty out of the guy. He is a politician and businessman. Just stick to that. You're not a lumberjack or a farmer or a machinist. Stop pretending.

 

[HoughMade]

Well, maybe...

[video=youtube;sZa26_esLBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZa26_esLBE[/video]

 

[Wolfhound]

Joe Donnelly used one of my Son's fallen comrades and his family in a campaign ad. It really bothered me. Just seemed very inappropriate. I only saw it on TV twice. Probably didn't have the effect they wanted. I just can't understand how the family would let themselves be used like that. No way I would do that for someone's political gain. Won't be voting for Joe.

 

[Hawkeye]

Joe Donnelly used one of my Son's fallen comrades and his family in a campaign ad. It really bothered me. Just seemed very inappropriate. I only saw it on TV twice. Probably didn't have the effect they wanted. I just can't understand how the family would let themselves be used like that. No way I would do that for someone's political gain. Won't be voting for Joe.

Joe must Go.


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[churchmouse]

Joe must Go.


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Bingo

 

[T.Lex]

I like fivethirtyeight.com's approach. They take into account the historical trends in midterms and other factors, not just polling.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/indiana/

Using their methodologies, they have Donnelly keeping the seat. :/

I remain skeptical, but I think some of the moves he's made that I think are wrong are based on his own internal polling. And it is probably working. The race is closer than it should be, given how strong Trump did.

Republicans should still keep the Senate, but it looks like there's a good chance the Dems will keep half of Indiana.

 

[femurphy77]

Nope! He wanted us to drag race! That is why it was mandated that there were long, straight sections every so many miles. Duh!

BALDERDASH!!! Give me the twisty turnys any day!

Or if you prefer:

 

[femurphy77]

I'm tired of the youtube political advertisements that CAN'T be skipped.

Dilly Dilly!

 

[Birds Away]

I like fivethirtyeight.com's approach. They take into account the historical trends in midterms and other factors, not just polling.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/indiana/

Using their methodologies, they have Donnelly keeping the seat. :/

I remain skeptical, but I think some of the moves he's made that I think are wrong are based on his own internal polling. And it is probably working. The race is closer than it should be, given how strong Trump did.

Republicans should still keep the Senate, but it looks like there's a good chance the Dems will keep half of Indiana.

That's very sad.

 

[Birds Away]

Nothing like rewarding poor performance.

 

[bwframe]

Are the polling outfits really just hedging their best bets so they really don't look like idiots again? A SWAG in the direction of history, without cellular communication dominance and Trump backers that keep their mouths shut, is safe for them.

We'll get the same explanation we got in '16...

..."oh we just couldn't have known..."

 

[T.Lex]

Are the polling outfits really just hedging their best bets so they really don't look like idiots again? A SWAG in the direction of history, without cellular communication dominance and Trump backers that keep their mouths shut, is safe for them.

We'll get the same explanation we got in '16...

..."oh we just couldn't have known..."

I think a bit of both, and other considerations.

Much of the actual polling wasn't that far off. It is just that the pundits didn't believe it, and used soft math based on faulty premises to reach a decision that made sense.

For midterms, though, the polling is easier. None of it is national. It is all "local" although it could be statewide.

The issue with the Indiana/Donnelly prediction is that our electorate is really divided in 2. Both parties pretty much have mapped out where their supporters are, and know pretty well how they will vote. (Well, 2012 was a surprise, but that's ancient history now.)

What is more interesting to me is the history of midterms, and how that can impact the final result. That's something fivethirtyeight takes into account, that other places may not. That history is somewhat Trump-independent. Well, I think it is.

I do think Indiana is closer than most national media think it is. But at the same time, I don't think Braun will carry as many Trump voters as Trump did. That dropoff will likely decide the election, both in terms of voters that "go back" to voting Dem in that race and those who just don't vote.

 

[SEIndSAM]

[h=1]Donnelly and Braun in statistical dead heat in Indiana Senate race,[/h]
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/do...l-dead-heat-in-indiana-senate-race-poll-finds

 

[bwframe]

Got these in the mail today, sent from the Senate Leadership Fund.