Stock Market Melt-Up

[ziggy]

Hey guys and gals, are you still riding this Bull Market, or have you bailed out, or been bucked off by past volatility?

 

[jerrob]

Yup, can't get out now, I'm ball deep in it.................unicycle/balance beam accident.

 

[Trigger Time]

Riding dirty

 

[BugI02]

Divergence from 50 and 100 day SMA not anywhere near steep enough to indicate 'melt-up' territory

 

[dprimm]

I won’t touch the long term stuff but am seriously considering pulling a majority of our quick access stuff. The market is a false bubble w the fed doing all its manipulation. When it pops Mt St Helens will look small. I fear for our country’s future.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I didn't pull any money out. looking forward i'm considering real estate more so than market due to inflation concerns

 

[ws6guy]

I'm riding it for now, been thinking about getting changing to more conservative but I think I'll ride it out. The money I have invested is for retirement and I'm at a minimum 17 years away from that so I should have time to recover if the bottom drops out.

I've also thought a little about real estate but it too seems to me to be on a bubble as well but maybe not.

 

[AtTheMurph]

The numbers to me just don't make sense. The .gov is handing out greenbacks so that people can pay rent and buy food. Can they do that indefinitely? Of course the answer is a big fat NO.

Small businesses are not going to be coming back. Who is going to be working, and pay taxes, and buying stuff? And more importantly, will the Fed slow their money printing again and will the market again throw a tantrum? I think so.

 

[Dosproduction]

The market is a big giant bubble induced by the FED. The stock market is hitting record highs while uneployment is at Great Depression levels. Tesla is now worth more then every other car manufacture combined. Apples on pace to become a 3 trillion dollar company. Aug set a record for the market that goes back to the 80s, a year later we had the 80s crash. 60cents of every dollar spent by the gov is printed. The FED has bought 1/3 of all mortgage backed securities, on pace to own 100% by the end of the year. Volkner was able to fend off stagflation because he let the market set interest rates at 20%, no chance of that happening now with how much debt where in. Jerome Powell said he wants more then 2% inflation even though the CPI is rigged to hide inflation, and ignores the expanding bubbles. Milkshake theory is not going to happen, foreign country's are going to start dropping the dollar. Buffet has now bought 500 million dollars worth of barrick gold. (That's a small amount but says some pretty big things seeing as buffet has always been against gold, and buying a miner is doubling your bets on gold). Many country's and banks have been expanding there gold reserves. Where looking down the barrel of a dollar crisis with reserved status lost, stagflation maybe even hyperinflation. We might be able to squeak out another couple years if trump wins on euphoria alone, but it can't last and the FED is on a unsustainable oath.

 

[CampingJosh]

I didn't pull any money out. looking forward i'm considering real estate more so than market due to inflation concerns

I'm worried about the long-term prognosis of commercial real estate. Hundred-million-dollar office buildings may just not be as necessary anymore.

 

[woowoo2]

I am pretty much sitting on the sidelines watching the world go by.
Might get back in after the first of the year.

 

[Kirk Freeman]

Tax profile mandates I stay in and continue to pour into the SEPs.

 

[RugerRog]

I'm still in, took a beating today.

 

[hoosierdoc]

I'm still in, took a beating today.

Yep, me too. My CCL calls did OK though, almost back to what I bought them at

So... when Trump won, the DOW tanked like 1000 before making a big positive swing. I am considering buying some near-term puts and calls on SPY or VOO a day or two before the election. If I go long I can only lose so much. But I am confident it's going to swing big one way or the other, and fast.

 

[BugI02]

Remember the stock market is forward-looking, Doc. Three to six months. A lot of the uncertainty over the election will already be priced in. I don't doubt there will be volatility, but I don't think the swings will be enormous. Still money to be made though if you don't get too greedy

 

[hoosierdoc]

Remember the stock market is forward-looking, Doc. Three to six months. A lot of the uncertainty over the election will already be priced in. I don't doubt there will be volatility, but I don't think the swings will be enormous. Still money to be made though if you don't get too greedy

if there's a 5% change that's huge in short-term index fund ETF options

 

[mechmc17]

Fed action is driving market valuations. Market down today because job numbers were good...which implies less Fed money printing. Less money printing, lower forward expectation for money flowing into stock prices.

 

[CampingJosh]

Fed action is driving market valuations. Market down today because job numbers were good...which implies less Fed money printing. Less money printing, lower forward expectation for money flowing into stock prices.

I wouldn't really describe today's job numbers as good. Job growth in August was slower than in July, and we're still at something like 3.5 million fewer jobs now than in 2016.

 

[AtTheMurph]

Tax profile mandates I stay in and continue to pour into the SEPs.

So you believe your tax profile will be better in the future when SSI and Medicare are even more broke, after the government allows the Fed to prints bazillions of chits of paper from nothing?

I have a hard time accepting that I have a silent partner in my SEP/Rollover IRA/Deferred Comp and Defined Benefit Pension plans. I have an even harder time accepting that the silent partner gets to tell me what his share is anytime he wants. Doesn't seem fair.

 

[NKBJ]

There's 90 trillion unaccounted for.