Stock market.... What are you doing?

[maxwelhse]

Trump said today that CCL offered ships to use for sick people if need arises. NRZ killed me this week but I am loaded with calls....and been trading it a bunch. I will be glad to be back to even...I hate working so hard just to get back what I lost! On a positive note, unreal how many more shares you can buy when your favorite stock falls from $15 to $4 in a day...lol. I sure am glad I wasn't in it 100% and had dry powder, or I would have been in bad trouble. Still down a bit for the week, but a lot better than I was at low point. Market is hard to figure out right now, it wants to rebound but just seems like it cant with so much uncertainty.

What's even better is when a dog you should have never gotten into, and are in way too deep, drops from $15 to $4 in a day, you're out of powder, and you've averaged down like 6 times already.

 

[nonobaddog]

Oh Jeez, I bought some NRZ at $14 too. That was in my 'hold-onto' account and I wasn't watching it. I guess I'll average down some next week. That account is so ravaged right now it isn't funny, but that account is earmarked for my son when I croak. I'll never need it but I sure would like to see it in better shape.

 

[Doug]

Hey, I've got an idea.
Why don't we have a lot of people buy and sell a lot of stocks trying to get rich quick by guessing what the market s going to do?
Sure, most of them will lose their shirts, but we can keep the market surging up and down and frighten people. We might even get a recession out of it if enough players lose their money.

I invest; I don't gamble.

 

[AtTheMurph]

It doesn't make sense. Even if they washed their boats, I don't think people are lining up for cruises right now.

It is a bet on a bailout, not on the prospects of the company as a going concern long term.

If you think they get bailed out and that people are going to forget about quarantines on a cruise ship where the vast majority of people got sick because of Wuhan Flu or Legionaires or whatever other viral scourge seethes in the hold, then CCL might have been a good bet before it jumped 20%.

It might be a good sell too if the rumors swirl and someone says they aren't getting bailed out too. Could drop 40% in that scenario.

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

I have a question for the INGO Experts[SUP]TM[/SUP].

Do y'all think the market has bottomed out yet? I'm thinking about putting some of my cash into mutual funds in anticipation of a V-shaped recovery, depending on how thing go over the next week or so. I am planning to buy and hold, not really trying to make a quick buck timing the ups and downs. Just looking for some other opinions before I buy.

 

[maxwelhse]

I have a question for the INGO Experts[SUP]TM[/SUP].

Do y'all think the market has bottomed out yet? I'm thinking about putting some of my cash into mutual funds in anticipation of a V-shaped recovery, depending on how thing go over the next week or so. I am planning to buy and hold, not really trying to make a quick buck timing the ups and downs. Just looking for some other opinions before I buy.

Ignoring that you ask for expert advice...

IMHO, probably not bottomed out yet depending on how the next couple of weeks go. Attempting to time the market is one of the first things people will tell you not to do. If anyone could time the market, everyone would be rich.

I'm of two minds here.

1 - Just sit on all of your cash until this craziness is behind us. If this goes long enough, and gets bad enough, other investment opportunities that are more appealing than wall street could come up (like houses at 80% off). Plus, if you push in tomorrow, and it drops by half, that would suck.

2 - It would also suck to miss out on an aggressive recovery if it happens that way. You could establish some small positions in the funds you're interested in, watch them like a hawk, and grow those positions slowly as patterns start to develop or drop them like they're on fire if they tank.

So... IMHO, no easy answer on this one for you. If I had a big pile of all of my money from 2 months ago sitting in front of me, I think I'd leave it right there in that pile. I may see a strong upside in the long run, but, who knows?

 

[nonobaddog]

Worldometers says USA...288 coronavirus deaths. I do not think we are at the bottom yet.





Disclaimer - I have been wrong before, I will be wrong again, I am almost always wrong.

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

Ignoring that you ask for expert advice...

IMHO, probably not bottomed out yet depending on how the next couple of weeks go. Attempting to time the market is one of the first things people will tell you not to do. If anyone could time the market, everyone would be rich.

I'm of two minds here.

1 - Just sit on all of your cash until this craziness is behind us. If this goes long enough, and gets bad enough, other investment opportunities that are more appealing than wall street could come up (like houses at 80% off). Plus, if you push in tomorrow, and it drops by half, that would suck.

2 - It would also suck to miss out on an aggressive recovery if it happens that way. You could establish some small positions in the funds you're interested in, watch them like a hawk, and grow those positions slowly as patterns start to develop or drop them like they're on fire if they tank.

So... IMHO, no easy answer on this one for you. If I had a big pile of all of my money from 2 months ago sitting in front of me, I think I'd leave it right there in that pile. I may see a strong upside in the long run, but, who knows?

I have heard many times that you shouldn't try to time the market, but I also don't want to miss an opportunity to buy in while everything is "on sale". Of course, I was much more optimistic that the virus reaction over excessive and that there would be a quick recovery than I am now.

I will add that I am a college student and have been holding off on investing because I didn't want to risk a downturn right when I might need that money for tuition or living expenses. I'm close enough to graduation now that I don't anticipate needing this money until I buy a house in 2-4 years.

I will likely end up splitting the difference between your first and second suggestions.

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

Worldometers says USA...288 coronavirus deaths. I do not think we are at the bottom yet.





Disclaimer - I have been wrong before, I will be wrong again, I am almost always wrong.

I hope for the sake of those who get are sick, and for the sake of the US economy that you are wrong, and that the sickness has peaked and the economy has bottomed out!

 

[Alpo]

Have a safety fund. That is typically 6 mos worth of your expenses. If you have more, sit on it awhile longer. There isn't any fact base worth a dang that you can make adequate projections of what will happen over the next 2 years.

If you have debt, consider paying it down with your excess funds. Credit cards. Car loans. Student debt. etc.

 

[maxwelhse]

I have heard many times that you shouldn't try to time the market, but I also don't want to miss an opportunity to buy in while everything is "on sale". Of course, I was much more optimistic that the virus reaction over excessive and that there would be a quick recovery than I am now.

I will add that I am a college student and have been holding off on investing because I didn't want to risk a downturn right when I might need that money for tuition or living expenses. I'm close enough to graduation now that I don't anticipate needing this money until I buy a house in 2-4 years.

I will likely end up splitting the difference between your first and second suggestions.

I'll give you a quick nugget from my past when I was in a similar situation and let you make of it what you will.

I graduated college in 2006 and was thinking just like you. I bought my first house in 2009. If I had pushed all of my money into the market in 2006, I'd have been 10 ways of F'd in 2009 and would have never been able to buy a house (and miss all of this nice, juicy, first time buyer incentives that were being passed out like candy too). FWIW, my house was a repo (I bought from flippers that bought it as a repo, which was a giant mistake, and I didn't learn until later) and sold for $56k in 2008 in the second most expensive zip code in Allen County. By 2011, a house up the street similar to mine, but on way less property, sold for $21,000. The guy that flipped the $21k house sold it for $120k a year or so later.

Doing anything on the market with less than a 5 year return window is considered short term. You ready to not buy that house in 2-4 years if things don't go your way?

If you want to put your toes in and dabble just to learn, go for it. I've said somewhere up stream in this thread that most brokers don't charge fees anymore and you can buy a single share of a $0.10 stock if you want. Go spend $5, play for a year and see if you can turn it into $25? Sure! Chuck it all in and hope you get a house down payment back in 2-4 years? Ehhhh....

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

Have a safety fund. That is typically 6 mos worth of your expenses. If you have more, sit on it awhile longer. There isn't any fact base worth a dang that you can make adequate projections of what will happen over the next 2 years.

If you have debt, consider paying it down with your excess funds. Credit cards. Car loans. Student debt. etc.

I am debt free, and would keep at least 6 months expenses liquid. Agree that we don't know for sure that a sharp recovery is certain. I guess that I have been sitting on the sidelines while the stock market has soared since '15-'16ish and I've been regretting not getting on that ride back then. Just trying to make some wise decisions right now...

 

[nonobaddog]

I am debt free, and would keep at least 6 months expenses liquid. Agree that we don't know for sure that a sharp recovery is certain. I guess that I have been sitting on the sidelines while the stock market has soared since '15-'16ish and I've been regretting not getting on that ride back then. Just trying to make some wise decisions right now...

You are making wise decisions right now by getting some advice before jumping.... you're just seeking that advice from sources of unknown reliability.

 

[HKFaninCarmel]

Question is going to be who will bounce back the best. I'm looking at Microsoft and Cisco. I can't imagine they are any worse than before?

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

I'll give you a quick nugget from my past when I was in a similar situation and let you make of it what you will.

I graduated college in 2006 and was thinking just like you. I bought my first house in 2009. If I had pushed all of my money into the market in 2006, I'd have been 10 ways of F'd in 2009 and would have never been able to buy a house (and miss all of this nice, juicy, first time buyer incentives that were being passed out like candy too). FWIW, my house was a repo (I bought from flippers that bought it as a repo, which was a giant mistake, and I didn't learn until later) and sold for $56k in 2008 in the second most expensive zip code in Allen County. By 2011, a house up the street similar to mine, but on way less property, sold for $21,000. The guy that flipped the $21k house sold it for $120k a year or so later.

Doing anything on the market with less than a 5 year return window is considered short term. You ready to not buy that house in 2-4 years if things don't go your way?

If you want to put your toes in and dabble just to learn, go for it. I've said somewhere up stream in this thread that most brokers don't charge fees anymore and you can buy a single share of a $0.10 stock if you want. Go spend $5, play for a year and see if you can turn it into $25? Sure! Chuck it all in and hope you get a house down payment back in 2-4 years? Ehhhh....

Hmm interesting. Solid advice. For some more perspective, I was thinking that I would start with between $5-10k. Enough that (in my mind) a quick rebound to previous highs would be a nice ROI, but not so much that a prolonged recovery or even continued decline would be devastating. (Granted. If we continue to decline from here long term, that would be devastating on a national level.)

I'm also not planning that this money would be my entire down payment on a future house, just that it would go towards it. Whether it's $10k sitting in the bank, or gets invested and turns into anywhere from $8-15k in 3 or 4 years is not likely to be life altering for me.

My gut is telling me to bet on the upside of the USA economy, but politicians and headlines be how they be. I may just start with $1k and use hindsight to be happy or sad with my decision.


Or I'll just spend it all on a bunch of guns n stuff...

 

[SirLiftsALatte]

You are making wise decisions right now by getting some advice before jumping.... you're just seeking that advice from sources of unknown reliability.

Yeah... Trust me, y'all aren't my only source of wisdom. I've done reading and research on the subject periodically over the past few years. Just saw the thread and thought I'd jump in and get some opinions/advice.

Right now I'm more scared of people's reactions to the Ch*na Virus than I am of the virus itself.

 

[maxwelhse]

You are making wise decisions right now by getting some advice before jumping.... you're just seeking that advice from sources of unknown reliability.

Can confirm. I shouldn't even listen to me.

 

[maxwelhse]

Hmm interesting. Solid advice. For some more perspective, I was thinking that I would start with between $5-10k. Enough that (in my mind) a quick rebound to previous highs would be a nice ROI, but not so much that a prolonged recovery or even continued decline would be devastating. (Granted. If we continue to decline from here long term, that would be devastating on a national level.)

I'm also not planning that this money would be my entire down payment on a future house, just that it would go towards it. Whether it's $10k sitting in the bank, or gets invested and turns into anywhere from $8-15k in 3 or 4 years is not likely to be life altering for me.

My gut is telling me to bet on the upside of the USA economy, but politicians and headlines be how they be. I may just start with $1k and use hindsight to be happy or sad with my decision.


Or I'll just spend it all on a bunch of guns n stuff...

I'll quote you a piece of advice that was given to me, so it's not mine so it's likely good, "Never put more into the market than you are prepared to lose".

That's probably the most solid thing you're going to ever get. If you lost all you put in, would it effect your immediate plans? If so, how? Then what? etc?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I'll quote you a piece of advice that was given to me, so it's not mine so it's likely good, "Never put more into the market than you are prepared to lose".

That's probably the most solid thing you're going to ever get. If you lost all you put in, would it effect your immediate plans? If so, how? Then what? etc?

That is very sound advice in any endeavor. To quote Janice Joplin, "Freedom's just another word, for nothin' left to lose."

 

[nonobaddog]

Yes, great idea. Gotta go play some Janice.