Trump and Recession

[HoughMade]

It would be a grave error to presume that anything a President may do can control the economy with any level of accuracy or predictability.

Stop being Keynsian in practice by trying to control what can not be controlled.

 

[NKBJ]

The night I watched President Nixon on TV presenting the wage and price controls it was like a chicken watching a card trip. I knew I was watching something but didn't know what it was. But since then looking at France's role in profiteering from our involvement in Vietnam and the closing of the gold window, the manipulations of inflation, how presidents are used in manipulating economies, these things are very interesting. And to piggy back on what HoughMade just said, the results are so unpredictable that little steps are taken. Make a move, watch, make a move, watch.

 

[HoosierLife]

In addition to the media hucksters and apparatchiks who are using ANYTHING negatively perceived to perpetrate an outright coup of a sitting president. There’s always been an ebb and flow of the financial market, they are going to make this one worse by screaming “the sky is falling!”

I think that’s their goal.

 

[Denny347]

What if Trump has concluded

We can stop there...he hasn't.

 

[BugI02]

When did Kut teach you mind reading?

 

[Kutnupe14]

I think that’s their goal.

Does the media really need to make up negative stuff about Trump? At the G7 he mentioned that his wife has "gotten to know" Kim Jong Un. The problem? ...They've never met. He also skipped the environmental meeting at the G7, and when asked why, staffers said that the president couldn't attend because he was having meetings with the Merkel and Modi. The problem? ...Merkel and Modi were at the environmental meetings. How is stuff like this not embarrassing to our nation?

 

[BugI02]

On the skipping the climate change meeting, it is the equivalent of a woman declining your invitation on a date because she has to wash her hair. It's an indirect way of saying that there is nothing the president would rather do less than attend a 'meeting' on climate change, esp. after Macron's grandstand play on the fires in the Amazon and brazen attack on Bolsonaro. Disdain is correctly met with disdain IMO

Can I assume that you also approve of Macron's ambush at the meeting by inviting Zarif, but would disapprove of Trump inviting Putin as a guest when he is hosting? Because from where I sit it would amount to about the same thing - which is playing politics.

On the KJI thing, perhaps she has been extensively briefed on the man and his entourage in case she was called on to attend formal functions as part of diplomacy and Trump is indicating she agrees with his assessment of the man. Or you can just go with Trump == pathological liar. I'm quite familiar with that and it requires so little reflection

 

[BugI02]

It would be a grave error to presume that anything a President may do can control the economy with any level of accuracy or predictability.

Stop being Keynsian in practice by trying to control what can not be controlled.

Ah, but one of the most interesting parts of the discussion was whether that would dissuade him from making the attempt if he felt it was necessary or good for the country in the long run. You can see people's estimation of the president's intelligence and acumen play out in real time; including my own, I'm sure. The gloves weren't exactly off but pretty close

 

[HoughMade]

Does Trump think he can exert control over the economy? Absolutely. Every president does and for some reason people who otherwise appear to be at least moderately intelligent believe this too.

Would Trump intentionally cause a recession to benefit himself? Theoretically, maybe to probably. In practice- no.

How could the president cause a recession in the short term to "get it out of the way". The answer is- he can't, not without taking devastating actions like raising taxes a huge amount or curtailing, not slowing, but nearly stopping government spending or by doing some other rash action. Can't be done. Even these actions would take actions of Congress and then would not show economy wide results for between many, many months and over a year.

Can he crash the stock market? Sure, but that in itself is not a recession and only a small portion of a true recession and assuming no other actions, will not cause a true recession.

 

[BugI02]

What about disrupting supply chains by requiring American companies to stop doing business with China? I happen to think those supply chains would just add another link between China and the US, such as Vietnam, but he surely has a number of tools to rock the boat at a time when a correction at least seems overdue. I just think there are few tools available to contain or channel the damage once the process takes hold. I don't think the guy is stupid, but I do think he is impulsive

 

[NKBJ]

Just heard that there are more one hundred dollar bills in circulation than one dollar bills.
Think I'll have another cup of coffee.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Just heard that there are more one hundred dollar bills in circulation than one dollar bills.
Think I'll have another cup of coffee.

I guess that's possible, outside of the the US obviously. Still it's hard to imagine.

 

[BugI02]

From: https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvolume.htm

Numbers of each type of bill in circulation, in billions of notes

View attachment 79646

 

[jamil]

From: https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/coin_currcircvolume.htm

Numbers of each type of bill in circulation, in billions of notes

View attachment 79646

Well. You know. they had to print a bunch more when Obama gave Iran a pile of cash.

 

[BugI02]

$1.7 billion would only be 17 million hundies out of that reported 13.4 billion - 1/8 of one percent of the total - and the first $400 million of the Iranian bribe to release prisoners was in cash but non-US currencies like swiss francs

Wondering why no love for Grants and Hamiltons

 

[kiddchaos]

Very good discussion on China and trade. And 5G/GDPR privacy.
It's a bit long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7VIeykAxsE

 

[NKBJ]

Greg Hunter knocking it out of the park as usual, this time speaking to the criminal cartel that is threatening to use their economic power to cause the president to lose re-election. They'll destroy a lot of Americans in the process but hey, those are little people. The big people want their way and as always that's what counts.

https://usawatchdog.com/fed-admits-working-against-president-trump-wayne-jett/

 

[Hawkeye7br]

A local woman hates Trump, Republicans, NRA, and constantly writes letters to the editor of paper. She recently wrote "the good stock market only helps people with savings".

That's like saying "higher wages only helps people with jobs" or "lower gasoline prices only help people with cars".

 

[JettaKnight]

I guess that's possible, outside of the the US obviously. Still it's hard to imagine.

Don't forget about "legal" pot dealers - banks won't touch them, so they've got to do something with that money...