Assuming a ban will occur, what are your best guesses to the actual policy specifics? My take is that with the current Republican majority in the House, if an AWB gets a majority vote, it will be by a very narrow margin. And most pieces of legislation that pass with a narrow margin include a ****load of compromises to win the middle of the roaders.
Emotions are very high right now so the timing is very important. I think if a bill is brought to a vote in the next 30 to 45 days, it will barely pass and be close to a '94 ban in specifics. The more time that is allowed to pass, the less likely a bill is to pass and if it does, it may be a watered down version of '94. Both parties are seriously looking for political cover on this but all they need is a headline, not actual policy.
The Republicans still have a decent majority in the House so I would think that a new AWB will be equal or less restrictive than the '94 ban. I think we may have the same detachable magazine with two "evil" features provisions and a 10 round limit. I don't think they will proactively write-in anything that would close clever workarounds like California's bullet loophole....they will stick to the same '94 framework including allowing the import of hi-cap mags made pre-2013.
And since compared to 1993, the market is literally flowing like a river with ARs, AKs, carbines and "hi-cap" mags for any rifle or handgun that has a receiver to take them, we may see prices on banned items much more favorable than post '94. Plus with so many states implementing shall issue since '94, the handgun market just exploded. Raw numbers of 10+ round handgun magazines is just astronomical compared to '94. (if anyone has any data that counters this assumption, I'd be curious to see it).
You will very likely see the $100 Glock mags again in the early months but I think there is such a huge supply of mags and rifles, the prices will come down once everyone chills out and prices will be pretty decent for a number of years (higher of course, but not as inflated as post '94). It will probably take a generation for an "evil black" AR to get to price levels comparable to NFA items like full auto rifles. Also, from what I've read, AK 30 rounders never really spiked since there were so many imported and they remained reasonably priced in the decade following the 94 ban (someone correct me if I'm wrong on that).
I think the politicians will get political cover from a slightly watered down '94 AWB and call it a day. Availability and prices for most banned rifles and magazines will be in decent shape within 6 months after the ban when buyers and sellers start to realize just how much stuff there is out there.
From the many blogs, opinion columns, sunday talk shows and politician's quotes I've heard/read over the past two weeks, only one additional provision might be thrown into a new law. They may try to outlaw private sales for handguns and what they would consider "assault weapons" and force everyone to go through an FFL for every transaction. That would be tricky though and that is where the slim margin mentioned above comes in to play. The democrats may be forced to drop that item to win a few votes for the total AWB to get their newspaper headline.
Any thoughts? Do you think an AWB would make it out of the House and if so, based on the currect evidence, what is your best guess regarding policy specifics of a 2013 AWB?
Emotions are very high right now so the timing is very important. I think if a bill is brought to a vote in the next 30 to 45 days, it will barely pass and be close to a '94 ban in specifics. The more time that is allowed to pass, the less likely a bill is to pass and if it does, it may be a watered down version of '94. Both parties are seriously looking for political cover on this but all they need is a headline, not actual policy.
The Republicans still have a decent majority in the House so I would think that a new AWB will be equal or less restrictive than the '94 ban. I think we may have the same detachable magazine with two "evil" features provisions and a 10 round limit. I don't think they will proactively write-in anything that would close clever workarounds like California's bullet loophole....they will stick to the same '94 framework including allowing the import of hi-cap mags made pre-2013.
And since compared to 1993, the market is literally flowing like a river with ARs, AKs, carbines and "hi-cap" mags for any rifle or handgun that has a receiver to take them, we may see prices on banned items much more favorable than post '94. Plus with so many states implementing shall issue since '94, the handgun market just exploded. Raw numbers of 10+ round handgun magazines is just astronomical compared to '94. (if anyone has any data that counters this assumption, I'd be curious to see it).
You will very likely see the $100 Glock mags again in the early months but I think there is such a huge supply of mags and rifles, the prices will come down once everyone chills out and prices will be pretty decent for a number of years (higher of course, but not as inflated as post '94). It will probably take a generation for an "evil black" AR to get to price levels comparable to NFA items like full auto rifles. Also, from what I've read, AK 30 rounders never really spiked since there were so many imported and they remained reasonably priced in the decade following the 94 ban (someone correct me if I'm wrong on that).
I think the politicians will get political cover from a slightly watered down '94 AWB and call it a day. Availability and prices for most banned rifles and magazines will be in decent shape within 6 months after the ban when buyers and sellers start to realize just how much stuff there is out there.
From the many blogs, opinion columns, sunday talk shows and politician's quotes I've heard/read over the past two weeks, only one additional provision might be thrown into a new law. They may try to outlaw private sales for handguns and what they would consider "assault weapons" and force everyone to go through an FFL for every transaction. That would be tricky though and that is where the slim margin mentioned above comes in to play. The democrats may be forced to drop that item to win a few votes for the total AWB to get their newspaper headline.
Any thoughts? Do you think an AWB would make it out of the House and if so, based on the currect evidence, what is your best guess regarding policy specifics of a 2013 AWB?
