Yellowstone is on a timer....

[Tactically Fat]

I agree, but to quibble I'd say it would depend on the time span and how you figure the death toll. 1 billion I'd say from what little I've read would be accurate, if you consider deaths only relating to the eruption itself and within a certain time frame let's say 3-6 mo. When you figure in the deaths caused by looters/anti-looters, starvation, etc, yeah the death toll will probably exceed 1 bil by more than just a little.

I agree! You can have "immediate deaths" would be those who are first-hand witnesses, then there are "the others" who perish due to the aftermath. I was going with "the aftermath" in kind of a total accumulation world-wide. Agriculture in this country not only feeds the USA, but a good chunk of the rest of the world. If Ag in this country goes kaput for a few years, then I'd imagine a huge % of the total deaths would be from starvation / malnourishment. May have to move to Ethiopia for a good meal.

i take all of this "news" as "they just dont know." Imagine what they'll come out with next year. They've tried to age the oceans, and new "studies" keep coming out that "disprove" the last study. They continually put out new stuff, i think so they'll still get funding. Have they been able to understand how every other area on the earth has an impact on yellowstones magma chamber and the rate at which is fills? Does this change every year, decade, century? They just dont know.

Part of the above issue is that A) the scientific community often doesn't know what it doesn't know. What I mean is that if you learn something brand new "AB"...it will often then lead you to realize that you suddenly don't know XYZ, because you didn't even know about XYZ until you learned about AB.

Volcanology and seismology are vastly complicated - and humanity only knows a tiny fraction. Yes - you're right - there's a metric crap ton of speculation. However, much of it can be considered educated speculation based on what is known NOW. What is known 1-2-3 years in the future may be different - and then yield a differing avenue of speculation either corroborating or contradiction previous lines of thought. Not that the former was "wrong" and the latter is "right" - but the frame of reference has shifted based on what is known in total.

 

[dusty88]

If you want the final say on something, don't talk to a research scientist.

Talk to an engineer.

pathologists have the last word