Russian ambassador shot!

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Well, some experts that gave their opinion to Business Insider (which is usually not an alarmist type periodical) that Putin is specifically sending a message.

Sergei Skripal attack: Putin 'wants everyone to know it's him' - Business Insider

In terms of the use of novichok, some reports I've read suggest that some of the compounds could be used in a binary way. That is, one part of the poison could be introduced to the victim without any negative effects, then it is just a matter of time and opportunity to introduce the second compound.

For instance, have someone ingest Part A with their tea on a Monday. Let's say it stays in their system for 3 days. Then, you'd have until Wednesday to introduce Part B.

That may also explain how the Skripals survived; the dosage was difficult to estimate.

Here is an article on the assassination of Kim Jong-nam. He was killed with a binary version of VX. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/24/what-is-vx-nerve-agent-killed-kim-jong-nam-north-korea

In the case of the assassination attempt on the Russian spy and his daughter, 21 people were treated for exposure to the unidentified agent. If it was a novichok agent, the spy and his daughter are very lucky to still be alive. They will both likely suffer physiological exposure issues for the rest of their lives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novichok_agent

The agents may cause lasting nerve damage, resulting in permanent disablement of victims, according to Russian scientists.[SUP][25][/SUP] Their effect on humans was demonstrated by the accidental exposure of Andrei Zheleznyakov, one of the scientists involved in their development, to the residue of an unspecified Novichok agent while working in a Moscow laboratory in May 1987. He was critically injured and took ten days to recover consciousness after the incident. He lost the ability to walk and was treated at a secret clinic in Leningrad for three months afterwards. The agent caused permanent harm, with effects that included "chronic weakness in his arms, a toxic hepatitis that gave rise to cirrhosis of the liver, epilepsy, spells of severe depression, and an inability to read or concentrate that left him totally disabled and unable to work." He never recovered and died in July 1992 after five years of deteriorating health.

 

[T.Lex]

Russian spy: UK to brief UN on former Russian spy attack - BBC News

May wants to convene the UN to address the Russian connection.

No confirmation yet that the Russians poisoned Hawking. For 50 years.

It also looks like the counter terrorism cops over there are heading the investigation into the Glushkov death.

 

[T.Lex]

Well, Russians see the Skripal incident as a false flag operation.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018...sergei-skripal-poisoning-180313080229802.html

And RT pokes holes in the British theory:
https://www.rt.com/news/421200-uk-novichok-agent-allegations/

May is expelling diplomats.
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201803141062516461-theresa-may-skripal-poisoning-russia/

And, new leaks suggesting the chemical, or a binary part of it, was on the car door handle.
Nerve agent 'smeared on car door' of Russian spy Sergei Skripal | Daily Mail Online

 

[T.Lex]

Another quick sidenote (that may only be interesting to a half dozen INGOers) - the politics of translation. Much more subtle than "we will bury you" which is more of a connotation issue.

The term "novichok" has been translated by the UK and most English-language articles as "newcomer." The RT article translates it as "novice."

They're both right.

The root of the word is "nov" and the adjective is "novye" (transliterated; "новые" in Russian), which means "new." The "-chok" suffix is a way to make related to a person (generically masculine, in this case). (Same root as "novosti" which means "news.")

So, it would more literally mean "someone who is new." Someone who is new to an area would be a "newcomer." Someone who is new to a task or role would be a "novice."

It also makes sense that it would be applied to a new class of drugs, by those working on them. The "newness" is what is being emphasized.

But, it is interesting to me that RT would use "novice" in its English language version, which has connotations of ineptitude and a lack of understanding. And the UK authorities would use the translation that emphasized differences and foreign-ness.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

But, it is interesting to me that RT would use "novice" in its English language version, which has connotations of ineptitude and a lack of understanding. And the UK authorities would use the translation that emphasized differences and foreign-ness.

RT is working hard to deflect the conversation away from the type of agent. The Brits are correct in implying "newness". However, it could also be a toxic agricultural pesticide or other industrial chemical that was used in the attack. The British media may be jumping to conclusions or simply using Russia as a convenient scapegoat.

The details of this class of agents were first published in the early 90's in Russian journals. A book with expanded details was published in 2008. I do not agree with the author and his decision to publish the formulas, used to develop these new types of agents.

[video=youtube;w1zvIW3B_74]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1zvIW3B_74[/video]

 

[Birds Away]

Russian ambassador shot!

Again? Man, I'm starting to feel sorry for that guy.

 

[T.Lex]

RT is working hard to deflect the conversation away from the type of agent. The Brits are correct in implying "newness". However, it could also be a toxic agricultural pesticide or other industrial chemical that was used in the attack. The British media may be jumping to conclusions or simply using Russia as a convenient scapegoat.

Well, Theresa May appears to have specifically called it "novichok" and linked it to Russia. If there's room - scientifically - for it to be a more common agent, then that's a HUGE gamble.

Importantly, my understanding of Mirzayanov's descriptions of the research is that these compounds were designed to avoid detection (back in the 80s and 90s). So, I wonder if it is possible for either the compounds themselves or their constituent parts to "show up" as those more common agents.

Another area that I think RT might have a point is that, as you note, those formulae have been in the wild for awhile. A dedicated oligarch would have the means to get the right professionals and right compounds to do this DIY. Which raises the related question of "Why Skripal?"

Also, I couldn't help but think of Hydra. Some extra-national super-organization could be behind this. And the UFO vids that have been released.

 

[SnoopLoggyDog]

Also, I couldn't help but think of Hydra. Some extra-national super-organization could be behind this. And the UFO vids that have been released.

Don't forget Elvis or Bigfoot...

Elvis is on record, (pun intended) of having a Suspicious Mind towards ex-Russian spy's. Nixon gave him a badge not to investigate drugs, but to investigate commies, as a favor to J Edgar.

The jury is out on how Bigfoot feels about ex-Russian spy's. He may have sneaked into the UK and pee'd on the door handle. Coast-to-Coast AM had a recent interview with an expert in all things Sasquatch. The "Expert" said that Sasquatch urine is very toxic. He did not elaborate how he got this information. Only that it was well known among those "In the Know". He also referenced a Dr. Bloor...

 

[T.Lex]

Russia to expel Brit diplomats, too.
Russian spy: Moscow 'will expel British diplomats soon' - BBC News

Also, Boris Johnson specifically accuses Putin of wanting to send the message that if you betray Russia, "you will die." That's pretty stark.

Related, a leak has suggested that Glushkov died with "traces of suffocation." That's an odd turn of phrase. Another Russian source suggested he was gay and died of AIDS.

 

[T.Lex]

Good article.
The Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal is just another front in Putin's war on the West. | The Weekly Standard

The last 2 paragraphs sketch out a good answer to "Why" this is happening.

The Cold War security architecture is crumbling in Europe. While the United States has shrunk its commitment to Europe’s security, the European Union has failed to generate a common security policy at all. Putin is aggressively pushing into the power vacuum in Europe and the Middle East, and Salisbury is a square on the chessboard just as Syria is.

Splitting the United States from its closest European ally is vital to Putin's goal of pulling Europe out of America's sphere of influence and into Russia's. He knows that the British will calibrate their position to that of the United States, and he is heightening the crisis to see how far the United States will go.

 

[Fargo]

Good article.
The Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal is just another front in Putin's war on the West. | The Weekly Standard

The last 2 paragraphs sketch out a good answer to "Why" this is happening.

It had seemed like Putin and the oligarchs were largely content to loot their own country, but I am beginning to think that he actually cares about Russian nationalism which is very concerning.

 

[T.Lex]

Yeah, when Putin went into Syria, my thought was he was testing Russian capabilities.

I'm starting to think that it was no test - he already knew it would work - or that the experiment proved fruitful. Paired with the success on the Crimean peninsula, he may really believe Russia is invincible.

Perhaps worse, those around him may believe themselves to be invincible by their proximity to him. I almost think it is a matter of time before certain oligarchs who stray too far from his vision are prosecuted or die mysteriously.

Wait.

That's already happened.

 

[Fargo]

Yeah, when Putin went into Syria, my thought was he was testing Russian capabilities.

I'm starting to think that it was no test - he already knew it would work - or that the experiment proved fruitful. Paired with the success on the Crimean peninsula, he may really believe Russia is invincible.

Perhaps worse, those around him may believe themselves to be invincible by their proximity to him. I almost think it is a matter of time before certain oligarchs who stray too far from his vision are prosecuted or die mysteriously.

Wait.

That's already happened.

I was discussing what led to World War II with my 12-year-old daughter last night because she didn't understand why Japan would want to attack us. We talked in some detail about the Sino Japanese wars and the resulting sanctions leading up to Pearl Harbor. I was kind of struck by the parallel to the sanctions enacted after the invasion of Ukraine. For the second time in 24 hours I am struck by a historical parallel, this time to Germany's involvement in the Spanish Civil War.

For the first time, I'm starting to think that this all ends much worse than I had previously contemplated.

 

[T.Lex]

I was discussing what led to World War II with my 12-year-old daughter last night because she didn't understand why Japan would want to attack us. We talked in some detail about the Sino Japanese wars and the resulting sanctions leading up to Pearl Harbor. I was kind of struck by the parallel to the sanctions enacted after the invasion of Ukraine. For the second time in 24 hours I am struck by a historical parallel, this time to Germany's involvement in the Spanish Civil War.

For the first time, I'm starting to think that this all ends much worse than I had previously contemplated.

There's another historical tidbit that, although more removed, figured prominently in Japan's psyche in the early 20th Century - they beat Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War

As Wiki notes, it was the first modern defeat of a "western" power by an Asian nation. Importantly, it gave Japan confidence.

Putin has been earning victories over the west since the beginning. Small at first, but growing.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Also, Boris Johnson specifically accuses Putin of wanting to send the message that if you betray Russia, "you will die."

Just isolating to this one issue, can you really fault any nation for this point of view? Traditionally we have hung traitors in this country. Going outside of borders to do it, or using chemical weapons to do it, or combining both certainly should ruffle some feathers, but can you really fault them for hunting down and killing traitors? So far, it seems that all sides have maintained the professional courtesy of not murdering foreign spies, opting to expel them instead (as far as we know). Traitors/double agents being a different matter.

 

[AmmoManAaron]

Putin has been earning victories over the west since the beginning. Small at first, but growing.

Generally true, and that goes back to at least the GWB years (Russian incursion into Georgia that we've discussed in the past), but a couple of minor quibbles.

1.) The situation in eastern Ukraine is basically a stalemate right now (disregarding Crimea). We'll see what the Ukrainians do with the Javelins.

2.) Syria isn't going all that well for the Russians. We gave them a good bloody nose a few weeks ago and the Turks are becoming more involved in a way that is generally harmful to Russian interests. The Russians are holding their own, but they are not running the table by any means.

 

[T.Lex]

Just isolating to this one issue, can you really fault any nation for this point of view? Traditionally we have hung traitors in this country. Going outside of borders to do it, or using chemical weapons to do it, or combining both certainly should ruffle some feathers, but can you really fault them for hunting down and killing traitors? So far, it seems that all sides have maintained the professional courtesy of not murdering foreign spies, opting to expel them instead (as far as we know). Traitors/double agents being a different matter.

Not really.

Well, it is a timing thing. If they were to have had a fair trial THEN hung him, then no worries. That's an internal thing.

The status quo has been that once you don't kill them when you have the opportunity, and let them leave, then they are untouchable. Well, unless they come back. Which would be unwise.

It is a deference thing. It gets tricky domestically - as the UK knows - when it happens on your soil. The public loses confidence and it makes you look weak. Kinda a "we won't make you look weak if you don't make us look weak." That's just the way it has been for as long as I can remember (which goes back to the Cold War).

This understanding has been crumbling for awhile with respect to Russian expat spies. Or even just political opponents. Several of those who've died mysteriously had nothing to do with the intelligence world, at least not formally. Revealing corruption and such isn't really a spying or traitoring thing. Is it?

 

[T.Lex]

Generally true, and that goes back to at least the GWB years (Russian incursion into Georgia that we've discussed in the past), but a couple of minor quibbles.

1.) The situation in eastern Ukraine is basically a stalemate right now (disregarding Crimea). We'll see what the Ukrainians do with the Javelins.

2.) Syria isn't going all that well for the Russians. We gave them a good bloody nose a few weeks ago and the Turks are becoming more involved in a way that is generally harmful to Russian interests. The Russians are holding their own, but they are not running the table by any means.

Our knights beat up their pawns. And probably gave up some elint or tactical capability information in the process. I think Putin was ok with that trade.

Yeah, Russia's beating the snot out of non-Western forces, so that's not really a yardstick for how they would do one on one with us. But, it is a military and domestic political success for him.

 

[Kutnupe14]

Just isolating to this one issue, can you really fault any nation for this point of view? Traditionally we have hung traitors in this country. Going outside of borders to do it, or using chemical weapons to do it, or combining both certainly should ruffle some feathers, but can you really fault them for hunting down and killing traitors? So far, it seems that all sides have maintained the professional courtesy of not murdering foreign spies, opting to expel them instead (as far as we know). Traitors/double agents being a different matter.

Kinda different. This particular Russian traitor was in Russian custody, and then released in a swap. You think it's fair game, after an agreement with another nation to have that person released, to violate their national sovereignty and then murder the guy?

 

[Fargo]

Kinda different. This particular Russian traitor was in Russian custody, and then released in a swap. You think it's fair game, after an agreement with another nation to have that person released, to violate their national sovereignty and then murder the guy?

Yeah, if this was a dude who the Brits exfiltrated or who had fled, I would see it as much less of a big deal than accepting a bunch of your spies back in exchange and then offing him. Hell, they had already tried and convicted him and declined to execute him.