Bill Gates: Yes, robots really are about to take your jobs.

[Tsigos]

This is exactly why I am worried about it. The middle class is shrinking at an alarming rate and could very well bring us back to a time where everyone is either in the lap of luxury or the bread line.

And when all of society is run for the benefit of the 1%, there will still be those on this board arguing that the tax burden on the 1% is too great and that the government should be funded with a sales tax so that the lower class can pay its fair share.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

And when all of society is run for the benefit of the 1%, there will still be those on this board arguing that the tax burden on the 1% is too great and that the government should be funded with a sales tax so that the lower class can pay its fair share.

They're the job creators, you know. Its funny how they can preach that and preach how small business is the backbone of America at the same time and still keep a straight face.

 

[Trigger Time]

My dad retired from GM and the automated robot welders and other automated machines took jobs. This is nothing new.

 

[MisterChester]

They're the job creators, you know. Its funny how they can preach that and preach how small business is the backbone of America at the same time and still keep a straight face.

FYI they do create jobs. Didn't you see Steve Jobs when he was alive go to an Apple store and hired a guy who walked in?

 

[HeadlessRoland]

They are making a reboot, think they said Arnie was coming back in it. Don't know what to think now, T2 is probably the best sci-fi film there is.

Brazil by Terry Gilliam.

Oh, you said 'fiction'. Sorry.

 

[steveh_131]

Yeah, I figure those 60 forklift operators didn't want their jobs and are all probably designing robots right now.

We're talking about a long-term shift, here. Those 60 operators may have to find work elsewhere, just like everybody else when a plant closes down. This is the reality of a free market. It's not always rainbows and unicorns for each individual, but opportunities can be had for anyone willing to work hard and use their head.

As a civilization, yes. As individuals, no. The industrial revolution and the resulting labor unions were a blip in how economies traditionally work. That blip resulted in a more equitable spread of that wealth among a larger percentage of the population than ever before, creating the middle class society we now have. The buggy whip maker could go work in a factory, there was very little barrier to entry in most career fields that paid a living wage. That is not true today. The forklift operators put out of work can't just go work in new technology, we've advanced well beyond that point, and jobs that pay well take significant amounts of time to learn and gain experience in. Those who believe this is a parallel to the industrial revolution need to pick up a history book.

I don't believe that technology is a bad thing, and furthermore I believe its inevitable. However, I also believe that we're going to return to the historic norm of a huge wealth gap between the 'haves' and 'have nots', and that absolutely will have real consequences on our culture and society. Look at the people complaining about the Millennials with their lack of drive and desire to work...and then say how those jobs are repetitive and not something people want to do anyway. I think most men from my generation and those before took some sense of purpose in their work. We value labor and earning our keep for it. In a world where robots and automation deprives more and more people of that, what's their sense of purpose? It'll certainly have to be redefined if they are to have the same level of happiness and fulfillment as previous generations, because the jobs won't be there.

People had similar feelings about the industrial revolution. They were called luddites.

When one tractor replaced hundreds of man hours of labor each year, did the world end? No. Human beings adapt. A free market allows us to do so. These changes don't happen overnight. The shift has been taking place for a very long time and we need to teach our kids to be prepared for whatever is coming next.

I think everyone should spend a whole lot less time worrying about 'wage gaps'. If you don't like your wage, get yourself a new one. The only wage gaps we should be wary of are the unnatural forms that are created by government intervention.

 

[ghuns]

When one tractor replaced hundreds of man hours of labor each year, did the world end? No. Human beings adapt.

They adapted by going to work building tractors. There was no net loss of jobs. That is not the case today. Technology is advancing at an ever increasing pace and the amount of human labor required to keep the world turning is decreasing.

The free market will take care of this, but the vast masses of those who are hopelessly average or below in their skills, education, and work habits will not like it. The changes won't take place overnight, they will take generations. There will be generations of people unable to provide a basic standard of living for their families. One could argue that we are already there.

The only answers to the problem of less human labor being required are to reduce the amount of humans, or ask those who provide the labor to pay for those who don't.

 

[steveh_131]

They adapted by going to work building tractors. There was no net loss of jobs. That is not the case today. Technology is advancing at an ever increasing pace and the amount of human labor required to keep the world turning is decreasing.

A machine replaces human effort collecting crops. Humans go to work building and fixing machines and the nation grows wealthier.

A machine replaces human effort in a factory, processing those crops into groceries. Humans...what? Die off? What's the difference?

Listen, guys. The ability to create wealth with less labor is a good thing. Efficiency is good.

You're trying to convince me that it is a good thing for us to burn more hours of our lives in order to create the same product. It is not. Freeing up that time to produce more wealth is what we call 'progress'.

 

[Dolton916]

We're talking about a long-term shift, here. Those 60 operators may have to find work elsewhere, just like everybody else when a plant closes down. This is the reality of a free market. It's not always rainbows and unicorns for each individual, but opportunities can be had for anyone willing to work hard and use their head.



People had similar feelings about the industrial revolution. They were called luddites.

When one tractor replaced hundreds of man hours of labor each year, did the world end? No. Human beings adapt. A free market allows us to do so. These changes don't happen overnight. The shift has been taking place for a very long time and we need to teach our kids to be prepared for whatever is coming next.

I think everyone should spend a whole lot less time worrying about 'wage gaps'. If you don't like your wage, get yourself a new one. The only wage gaps we should be wary of are the unnatural forms that are created by government intervention.

Most will find if you're unskilled and uneducated you may not find another "wage" Yes tractors replaced men on farms, soon, as in NOW they're starting to replace a lot of others as well. We here in the "Breadbasket shoould be aware of this. Have you seen the GPS enabled tractors that turn, seed, spray and harvest fields with minimal human input?

How long before this guy is serving you your burger and fries? Honda's Asimo robot gets faster and smarter in human makeover - YouTube Keep in mind the video's two years old...

Unskilled labor AND much of the mid-tier labor are looking at a finite future. we used to tell kids to learn a trade but when automation may very well take 50% of menial jobs where do these kids go?

In my example, I did say I had to hire a tech, but he replaced 3 techs who were there 3 shifts 24/7. That's 168 hours a week of billing hours lost and hours that I had to find elsewhere so as to not lay off the guys. The new tech works a 8 hour shift and is on call 24/7 and has not had one after hours call out in 2014.

 

[steveh_131]

You aren't seeing the big picture, here.

By your logic, our nation would be better off if we got rid of tools altogether. Send everyone out to the fields with rakes and shovels, or better yet....their bare hands. Think of all the work everyone would have to do! People must have been REALLY rich back before we had all this machinery hogging all of our work!

The key to a strong economy is not to burn as many man-hours as we possibly can. Exhausting available labor does not necessarily build wealth. Creating products builds wealth. If we can create those products while burning fewer man hours then it frees up those man hours to create other products.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

You aren't seeing the big picture, here.

By your logic, our nation would be better off if we got rid of tools altogether. Send everyone out to the fields with rakes and shovels, or better yet....their bare hands. Think of all the work everyone would have to do! People must have been REALLY rich back before we had all this machinery hogging all of our work!

The key to a strong economy is not to burn as many man-hours as we possibly can. Exhausting available labor does not necessarily build wealth. Creating products builds wealth. If we can create those products while burning fewer man hours then it frees up those man hours to create other products.

No, that's not the logic. You can take anything to extremes to make it look ridiculous.

1) No one is arguing that it won't create more wealth. The question is how is that wealth going to be distributed? The wage gap will continue to grow and more and more resources will be accumulated by a small minority
2) The industrial revolution is not the same. As previously stated, the entry requirements into new jobs was low, there was plenty of unskilled and semi-skilled labor. This is not the case with the information revolution.
3) No one is arguing that more man hours is the point of a strong economy. We are arguing that society will radically change based on the lack of available labor positions. The value of 'hard work', the pride and sense of purpose from one's occupation, the valuation of material possessions, these will all change. Maybe for the better, maybe for the worse, but there's no way it will stay the same.

Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong without going to the histrionics of 'gosh, we'd be better if we went back to the Stone Age' strawman. Or, alternatively, pick up one of the following books and see what economists are saying:

Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation: Tyler Cowen: 9780525953739: Amazon.com: Books
http://www.amazon.com/Race-Against-Machine-Accelerating-Productivity-ebook/dp/B005WTR4ZI/

 

[ghuns]

Listen, guys. The ability to create wealth with less labor is a good thing. Efficiency is good.

Both are absolutely good things, I wasn't saying they are not. What I am saying is that as less and less human labor is required, without a corresponding drop in humans, things are gonna get ugly. The number of those unable and/or unwilling to adapt will continue to grow. Their only means of obtaining wealth will be to take it from those who are able to produce it through their labor.

 

[hornadylnl]

We have equipment here that monkeys can fix and we have equipment that it takes a laptop and skill to fix. Most show no initiative to learn how to fix automated equipment because it gets them out of working on it.

I wasn't satisfied just making the donuts so I applied myself and have learned a great deal. I now carry the laptop and tell the monkeys what to do.

I'm 37 now and I saw the writing on the wall several years ago. I've been in industrial maintenance for 8 years now and I run circles around other maintenance guys here who've been doing it 15 years plus. I saw a day coming that there'll be wrench monkeys making minimum wage while the guys with laptops telling them what to do will be making the money. If I were within 5 years of retirement, I'd say **** it and make the donuts.

The monkeys here make the same pay as I do. But I'm learning a skill that gives me much more job security in the future.

 

[steveh_131]

If the market is flooded with cheap, unskilled labor then the market will find a place for it at the wage that it is worth.

You're right that it will have some political effects, and those are what we need to be wary of.

Things like government-sponsored labor unions, OSHA, labor laws, minimum wage, etc. are the true killers of the labor market. A set of human hands and eyes is actually rather valuable, but its value is hugely hindered by the government. These things are what drove most manufacturing out of the U.S. a very long time ago. Technology is not the problem.

Instead of trying to reign in these 'wage gaps' we need to focus on reigning in the government and allow people to forge their own destinies. Sink or swim.

 

[hornadylnl]

Robots don't call in sick. True, they do break down but that's largely due to the human input.

 

[BigBoxaJunk]

Things like labor laws are the true killers of the labor market.
Instead of trying to reign in these 'wage gaps' we need to focus on reigning in the government and allow people to forge their own destinies. Sink or swim.

Yes, we really need to go back to the days when 10 year old kids worked barefooted in the coal mines for 50 cents a day. Weren't THOSE the good-ol' days?


(OK, be honest Steve, your first thought was "Only until I can find some who'd do it for 30 cents a day", wasn't it?)

 

[steveh_131]

Double post

 

[steveh_131]

Take it up with the parents of the 10 year old.

I wasn't really referring to child labor and I'm not sure that it's relevant. There are a lot of other labor requirements that have driven away manufacturing.

 

[BigBoxaJunk]

There are a lot of other labor requirements that have driven away manufacturing.

And I believe that there are "a lot of other labor requirements" that are necessary to compel industry to provide a safe workplace and a fair wage.

 

[jamil]

Most will find if you're unskilled and uneducated you may not find another "wage" Yes tractors replaced men on farms, soon, as in NOW they're starting to replace a lot of others as well. We here in the "Breadbasket shoould be aware of this. Have you seen the GPS enabled tractors that turn, seed, spray and harvest fields with minimal human input?

How long before this guy is serving you your burger and fries? Honda's Asimo robot gets faster and smarter in human makeover - YouTube Keep in mind the video's two years old...

Unskilled labor AND much of the mid-tier labor are looking at a finite future. we used to tell kids to learn a trade but when automation may very well take 50% of menial jobs where do these kids go?

In my example, I did say I had to hire a tech, but he replaced 3 techs who were there 3 shifts 24/7. That's 168 hours a week of billing hours lost and hours that I had to find elsewhere so as to not lay off the guys. The new tech works a 8 hour shift and is on call 24/7 and has not had one after hours call out in 2014.

The market will figure it out. Necessity is often the mother of invention.

I know a college dropout who lost his job at a factory. Sat in a bar drowning his sorrows. He noticed one of the walls in the bar had a typical bulletin board with people's personal adds. This gave him an idea.

He made a deal with the bar owner to rent the wall, and he started selling advertizing space for other area businesses on the wall. He went around to bars all over the town doing the same thing, and he was able to make a living doing that. He eventually sold the business for $20K.

He used the money to take a trip to India to make business contacts. When he returned he took the remaining money and set up a new business importing rugs from India and supplying stores that sell rugs. By the time he sold that business he was employing a handful of people. He sold that business for 6 figures and I think now he's a tub & shower distributor out west with 40 or so employees.

He told me that if he had never lost that job he'd probably still be working in the factory. I'm not relating that for any other reason than to say that one person turned his own job loss into a 50 job gain. Not everyone can turn good ideas into money. But when those who can, do, those ideas become new opportunities for other people. Think of all the new industries that never existed before someone had an idea.

Cars used to be built one at a time. Henry Ford's innovations probably cost some one-at-a-time builders their jobs. But that innovation created a new market, orders of magnitude greater than the existing market.

The problem I see in this thread is failure of imagination. It's most easy to imagine things within the range of your vision of reality. You think that technology will replace the need for human labor because you see only the markets that exist today. And you envision that if one of those markets go away, the resulting loss of jobs seems permanent. That's why the field workers were depressed when they first saw the tractor. They couldn't see the new markets emerging from that because those markets were just starting out.

The market at large isn't a zero sum game. Industries have been gained and lost and will always be for all time. Just because someone had an idea to make robots that do the work of humans doesn't mean that there will never be new markets with new opportunities that never existed before. Of course people have to adapt, and learn new skills. Are we going to require companies to shun innovation just so that we can keep people in the jobs they're accustomed to?

As I said before, I'll worry about technology taking my job when technology can replace human ingenuity.