Coronavirus

[smokingman]

NEJM article published today.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973?query=RP

Viruses were applied to copper, cardboard, stainless steel, and plastic maintained at 21 to 23°C and 40% relative humidity over 7 days.

SARS-CoV-2 was more stable on plastic and stainless steel than on copper and cardboard, and viable virus was detected up to 72 hours after application to these surfaces

Half-lives of the different surfaces summary:
Plastic. 6.8 hours
Stainless Steel. 5.6 hours
Cardboard. (none after 24 hrs)
Copper. (none after 4 hours)
Aerosols. 1.1 hours

All those boxes from UPS, FedEx, and USPS could now be cycled out of their quarantine and handled a day or 2 later !

Note* an important one. That is not the time for the virus to be gone. That is the time it takes to reduce by 50%. It says so plainly in the study.

 

[JettaKnight]

Our son's Ortho is only seeing emergency patients. He has popped two brackets off his braces so they are squeezing him in today. We cant go in though. When you get there you text a number with the patient's name. When they are ready they text you and you send ONLY the patient into the building. A staff member will meet the patient at the locked door to let them in and treat them. Crazy.

WTF are you taking your son to an orthopedic surgeon for braces?











Oh, you meant orthodontist.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

Chiming in late here but I have been involved in several arguments over this thing. For me, it is being blown way out of proportion to it's actual threat level.

First, it IS newsworthy! It should be covered, it should be discussed, the public does need to be informed. However, the extent to which it is being covered is insanely over the top! The coverage itself is creating the story, not the story itself.

The last time I saw something like this that comes to mind easily was the OJ Simpson "chase" in the Bronco. I heard a reporter saying they needed to cover it because everyone was watching it. The problem with this thinking was that we were all "watching" it because it was on every darned news channel interrupting regular programming. We could not help BUT watch it if our TV was on. It became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Here are some basic facts that I do believe make it newsworthy:

#1) It IS new, at least to the general human population. Any new virus that is lethal should be discussed as it gets into the general population.

#2) It is lethal. The coronovirus itself can cause pneumonia by itself, especially in the vulnerable population.

#3) There is no vaccine, nor is there a targeted cure. Once someone is infected they are on their own with their own immune system to fight it off, with help of pure oxygen and care once hospitalized with a severe case.

#4) 20% of the infected will show serious symptoms. Presuming this goes through the entire US population of 330 million this will mean 66,000,000 will get serious symptoms. This is not good.

HOWEVER, context is everything. Here is why I believe it is being overblown.

#1) We also face a threat from the flu (aka. influenza). So far, this flu season, our CDC estimates that 20,000 - 52,000 people have DIED from the flu already! This is in the USA alone. The median number here would be 36,000 dead from the flu.

#2) While the flu doesn't kill by itself, it does weaken our immune system for other infections to follow, such as bacteria or viral pneumonia, which do kill. So the coronovirus does the damage itself, but so what? This is like arguing whether or not you're killed in the road by a gas truck or a diesel truck. Does it really matter enough to justify mass hysteria?

#3) The mortality rate is way overblown (personal opinion based on facts here.) The original mortality rate was either 2.4 or 2.6%. The WHO (World Health Organization) upped that to 3.4 or 3.6%. HOWEVER, the WHO also in the same line says that it expects this number to come down. The reason is testing and identification of the actual number infected v/s the number killed. In the USA we have only tested about 9,000 people to date. We suck on testing. While in South Korea they are testing 20,000 people per DAY! And guess what? In South Korea their mortality rate is below 1% of the population, with similar health care. So presuming that the actual mortality rate is around 0.5% that would result in about 330,000 dead in the USA from the coronovirus. This is bad, but it is hardly worth panicking over. This represents 6 - 17 times those killed by the flu. But not millions.

#4) The mortalities caused by coronovirus seem to only focus on the elderly and those with compromised immune systems. Granted, I am in that category as many of you are, but so what? We are also at risk in the same way from the flu or any other pathogen. Plus, there seem to be almost no young people dying. The flu isn't so picky.

#5) Regarding a vaccine, there is a vaccine for the flu - until the flu mutates. This is why we need a new vaccine every year. The powers that be make a scientific estimation of what is going to go around the world and create the annual flu vaccine based upon this estimation. This includes anywhere from 2 - 20 strains. Good for them! Seriously, a great job. However, it is only an estimate. If a flu strain that isn't included in the vaccine somehow manages to spread beyond its perceived threat level, it can cause massive damage. So the flu vaccine while useful isn't a silver bullet.

#6) It is reported now that once we get the coronovirus we are immune to it. So by this time next year the bulk of the population worldwide will have contracted the coronovirus, survived it, and become immune to it. With this immunity they won't spread it any farther. Unlike the flu, which will mutate and cause threats forever.

#7) What we should be worried like hell about is MERS! Middle East Respiratory Syndrome! It hasn't bloomed into a major threat but that is where our focus should be. Why? Because MERS has a 30 - 40% mortality rate! That is a Holy , head for the bunker, the preppers were right mortality rate! If MERS ever breaks loose we will be looking at the 1347 - 1351 bubonic plague all over again. That will be insanely butt ugly. This is context, perspective. MERS is something that we need to really focus on before it breaks out into the general population. But hey, only a few Middle Easterners have died so who in the Western world cares, right? We ignore this strain at our own peril.

So, while I do believe coronovirus is newsworthy, it is nowhere near the threat level it is made out to be.

Regards,

Doug

Some Links: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

https://www.nfid.org/infectious-diseases/coronaviruses/

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v...o_be_held_accountable_for_hurting_people.html

I'm going to respectfully disagree with you.

First, something I think we can all agree on, the 3.4-3.6% mortality rate is overblown. In #3, you hypothesize a 0.5% mortality rate, which seems to be pretty close to a submitted, but unreviewed, paper analyzing the data from the Diamond Princess and China/Wuhan populations. It finds a 0.5% mortality rate, but allows that the actual rate might be 0.6-0.7% if some percentage of the non-sympotmatic cases become symptomatic and lead to further deaths. (also note the very high mortality for the elderly, 7.3% for those over 70!)

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-outbreak-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-death-rate
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

So, you might say it's 5 to 7 times more deadly than the average flu (0.1%), so you can just multiple the annual flu deaths by that, and there you go...

No, you cannot.

The flu has been around for a long time. Lots of people get vaccinated. Even when the vaccine doesn't target the exact strain(s) that season, it lessens the impact on the entire population, lessens the severity in some individuals and slows the spread.

That's why a 0.1% mortality rate for the flu kills "only" 30,000-60,000 in the US each year, and NOT 350,000! That's because everybody doesn't get the flu every year... far from it.

Also, this coronavirus is roughly twice as contagious as the flu. That DOES NOT mean twice as many people would catch it, it means that it spreads twice as fast... this means exponential growth in the number of infected compared to the spread of the flu. Think of it as an unchecked, windblown wildfire through bone dry tender.

With no vaccine currently available, no known effective anti-viral medication and no known "innate" immunity within the population to this new virus to slow it's spread, it is not unreasonable to project up to 1.5-2.2 Million US deaths in the next year+ prior to a vaccine being widely available as this virus spreads like wildfire.

And keep in mind, that is based upon mortality rates among small populations in Wuhan province and on a ship, where there was available (or quickly setup and available) medical care. If this happens all at once on a broad scale, like in regions of Italy where care must be triaged, the death rate and numbers will be even higher.

Those are the sobering facts of this virus and the reason why, within a very short time, leaders of every stripe, at every level and in every nation have quickly fallen in line with the drastic measures necessary to keep this in check while we wait for warmer weather to hopefully slow it and give us time to find something that will prevent the above scenario.

 

[worddoer]

It wont take much. The number of domestic disturbances was high last night. I suspect it's only going to get worse as people really start to feel financial pressure. Staying at home with family is the last thing that should be happening with some of our fair citizenry.

Domestic disturbances....can't be. So many parents talk about how their kids are angles and their kids "couldn't do that". Why would there be any friction in any homes?

I have a feeling that more family's are going to look like the Simpson's than they are willing to admit.

 

[MCgrease08]

McGrease, I think you have an earache and need to get a Zpac.

We did some sweet talking to the nurse at the pediatrician's office and they agreed to let me bring my daughter in this afternoon. She has no symptoms of COVID-19 other than a low fever and sore throat. No aches, no shortness of breath or lethargy. No deep coughing.

I'll post an update once we get back.

I Also want to thank everyone who reached out via PM and text. It's amazing to see how many people genuinely care. That's why I love

 

[Trigger Time]

I'm glad people don't know about roasting asparagus with oil, salt, and pepper. Never mind the cheese. Stuff's been on sale for 2 weeks. I fired up the grill again today. Comfort food is important if you get sick. Feed a cold. Starve a fever.

I bought shoots to plant and grow my own. We love it

 

[JettaKnight]

I bought shoots to plant and grow my own. We love it

There's nothing like very fresh asparagus.



Plus, it's perennial, what's not to love about that? It should start to come up in a couple of weeks, or sooner.

 

[ghuns]

Well damn. Maybe I need to switch from beer and Jagermeister to gin and tonics until this blows over. You know... for medicinal purposes of course. Ounce (or two) of prevention and all that...

Not to discourage you from a few G-n-Ts, but a liter of modern tonic water contains about 83mg of quinine. Doses in pill form range from 500-1000mg. Sooooo, might wanna mix 'em light on the gin.

 

[smokingman]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

Map of US cases as of 12 hours ago,includes many updates but missing quite a bit of the last 24 hours.

 

[Ballstater98]

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Not to discourage you from a few G-n-Ts, but a liter of modern tonic water contains about 83mg of quinine. Doses in pill form range from 500-1000mg. Sooooo, might wanna mix 'em light on the gin.

Or just make them REALLY big.

 

[ws6guy]

with my household going down to a single income soon I wish I didn't pay my taxes last week. Could definitely use that money!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/treasury-and-irs-to-delay-tax-deadline-by-90-days.html

 

[Alpo]

Or just make them REALLY big.

Never let the glass go empty. Like getting an IV drip.

 

[BugI02]

And just who would prove where the virus was contracted?

When has lack of proof ever concerned an ambulance chaser

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Interesting. She must've deleted it.

Basically suggested that since Israel has (allegedly) been working on a vaccine for a year, then they must've known this might happen. Then introduced the notion that a Kushner-related company was stood to profit from it or something. (It kinda didn't make sense.) All in the span of a tweet.

Link doesn't seem to work for me.

Yeah she deleted it.

It's here

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020...ws-phase-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-screenshot/

 

[BugI02]

I really appreciate humor which plays on stereotypes.

This next post should have you ROFL, then, because it's full of stereotypes

Sure, that makes sense.
Everybody who's already unemployed and not losing any money.
Every retiree who's not losing any money.
Everyone who's income isn't affected by the closings.
Everyone who is so rich they don't notice losing the money.
Yeah, give them all $1000,

 

[JettaKnight]

So, that seems like this a whole lot of panic over nothing... but low number of tests makes it almost meaningless.

 

[SheepDog4Life]

So, that seems like this a whole lot of panic over nothing... but low number of tests makes it almost meaningless.

A month and a half ago, January 30th, Italy had only 2 confirmed cases:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...nfirmed-in-italy-prime-minister-idUSKBN1ZT31H

 

[hammerd13]

So, that seems like this a whole lot of panic over nothing... but low number of tests makes it almost meaningless.

You are right, in that we aren't doing a lot of testing yet. This is an interesting graphic/food for thought. We are just at the beginning...and trying to avoid the heavy impact countries before us have experienced.

The next 2-4 weeks will be will be a little rough here in the USA.

http://[img]https://i.imgur.com/8DpQu1w.jpg[/img]

 

[snorko]

Interesting. I would expect clusters to follow population, thus Ft Wayne, Indy doughnut, and Chicago corridor, but I am a little surprised at our SW IN lack of confirmed cases.

So, that seems like this a whole lot of panic over nothing... but low number of tests makes it almost meaningless.

So 20% of those tested have it. It will be interesting to see how this ramps up.