Coronovirus III

[Ingomike]

I just want to thank you Chip for sharing your insight in this matter.

 

[chipbennett]

Ok, when we open up the multiverse, we can figure out how that would've gone.

Instead, we have this reality.

(Speaking of which, I'm hearing good things about remdemsevir - good job on that!)

Note that I'm not saying that what you're asserting can't be true; rather, that its truth is not currently knowable.

As for Remdesivir - thanks, but my role is only now coming to bear. I'm involved with helping one of Gilead's CMOs take it from API form to finished drug product form, and getting it onto the market.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

Math is not a magic 8 ball, but what you're asserting is not now statistical analysis of variance works.

All virus infections follow a curve that includes exponential growth. All viruses naturally burn themselves out, leading to an overall bell curve of overall infection.

It has become abundantly clear that what I speculated weeks/months ago - that the viral spread started not in February, but in December (or earlier) - is true. Thus, all of the models based on Day 0 being in February were wrong. The inflection point was off by months. The change in growth/spread is consistent with a virus that started spreading much earlier than originally assumed.

Further, you are basing "exponential growth" on incomplete data, yielded from intentionally diminished testing. The rate of testing has changed. The ability to test and rate of testing for antibodies has changed. Thus, there is no true picture of rate of growth then vs now, on which to make an ANOVA claim of a statistically significant change in rate of growth before and after SIP orders.

I saw it postulated this weekend that what we may have been witnessing the last month or so was actually the dreaded 2nd wave.

 

[Ingomike]

Again, perfect data is an illusion in this reality.

There's no denying the decisions were based on incomplete data, that's part of the problem with a novel virus: we don't know what we don't know.

At the time the decisions were made, the actual deaths appeared to be (and likely were) growing exponentially. What that meant in terms of infections is unknown and likely unknowable. But, the actual math available was compelling.

That the Chinese hid a major data point is a part of failure of the models.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

I saw it postulated this weekend that what we may have been witnessing the last month or so was actually the dreaded 2nd wave.

I have some family that are convinced that they already had it. Apparently very bad cold/flu late last year.

 

[chipbennett]

Again, perfect data is an illusion in this reality.

There's no denying the decisions were based on incomplete data, that's part of the problem with a novel virus: we don't know what we don't know.

At the time the decisions were made, the actual deaths appeared to be (and likely were) growing exponentially. What that meant in terms of infections is unknown and likely unknowable. But, the actual math available was compelling.

I agree - and this is my primary issue with a blanket assertion that SIP orders were the assignable root cause of "green" on the map in question.

 

[chipbennett]

I have some family that are convinced that they already had it. Apparently very bad cold/flu late last year.

My wife tested negative for antibodies. I'm both surprised (given my travel immediately prior to SIP) and disappointed (again, given my travel, having some level of documented immunity would be incredibly useful; if she tested positive, I would have gone for the test; I may still, but now I think it's much less likely that I've had it).

 

[churchmouse]

I have some family that are convinced that they already had it. Apparently very bad cold/flu late last year.

I was down hard with something during that same time period. Worst I had felt for a long time. A full 2 weeks and then a slow rebound. I did not die. I am old and my immine system is compromised.

So If I had it and am sitting here typing WTAF peoples.

 

[Ingomike]

So from my Monday morning QB chair it seems the C-19 event was largely fueled by nursing home environments and leaders that addressed that environment successfully had much better outcomes, NY and Florida for opposing examples. This does not seem to have ravaged the population like they feared and planned for.

 

[Alpo]

"tautological"

"postulated"

"exponential"

Many World Theory

Immunities

anti-bodies.


My o my. The level of discourse has grown since Groundhog Day.

My o my.

 

[foszoe]

Yeah. If one business should have been locked down, it would be nursing homes.

I see it as analogous to the murder-by-county map, that shows something like 50% of all murders taking place in 2% of US counties. As some demand with respect to gun control, a nation-wide pandemic response policy was adopted to deal with a hyper-localized problem.

ETA: another perhaps-useful graphic would be to show nursing home vs all other COVID deaths.

 

[foszoe]

Right now I see T-Lex as speculation and your post here as hindsight.

What I want to know is if a disease comes along in say 20 years and the same assertions are made, If we start out to prove causation, how would one go about setting up a study that would satisfy those who say they are not? How long would the study take to provide conclusive results that everyone agreed to? and how far would it have spread before we took any action? How many deaths would have happened before we conclude it is as bad as they say it is?

Math is not a magic 8 ball, but what you're asserting is not now statistical analysis of variance works.

All virus infections follow a curve that includes exponential growth. All viruses naturally burn themselves out, leading to an overall bell curve of overall infection.

It has become abundantly clear that what I speculated weeks/months ago - that the viral spread started not in February, but in December (or earlier) - is true. Thus, all of the models based on Day 0 being in February were wrong. The inflection point was off by months. The change in growth/spread is consistent with a virus that started spreading much earlier than originally assumed.

Further, you are basing "exponential growth" on incomplete data, yielded from intentionally diminished testing. The rate of testing has changed. The ability to test and rate of testing for antibodies has changed. Thus, there is no true picture of rate of growth then vs now, on which to make an ANOVA claim of a statistically significant change in rate of growth before and after SIP orders.

 

[Bennettjh]

I saw it postulated this weekend that what we may have been witnessing the last month or so was actually the dreaded 2nd wave.

Totally unrelated.

You changed your avatar. Strange times we're living in. I see it and think " who's the new guy?".

 

[chipbennett]

Yeah. If one business should have been locked down, it would be nursing homes.

Yes. How nursing homes didn't implement strict isolation/quarantine controls (including for the healthcare workers there) completely escapes me.

And then there were the (mostly democrat) Governors who issued virtual death warrants by forcing nursing homes to take in COVID-positive/symptomatic residents/patients.

 

[chipbennett]

Right now I see T-Lex as speculation and your post here as hindsight.

What I want to know is if a disease comes along in say 20 years and the same assertions are made, If we start out to prove causation, how would one go about setting up a study that would satisfy those who say they are not? How long would the study take to provide conclusive results that everyone agreed to? and how far would it have spread before we took any action? How many deaths would have happened before we conclude it is as bad as they say it is?

I honestly don't know if you can prove causation.

 

[Alpo]

Yes. How nursing homes didn't implement strict isolation/quarantine controls (including for the healthcare workers there) completely escapes me.

And then there were the (mostly democrat) Governors who issued virtual death warrants by forcing nursing homes to take in COVID-positive/symptomatic residents/patients.

To be fair....to ask a governor to know epidemiology when so much disinformation is coming from Federal levels of expected competency....is, perhaps, a bit much.

And the "democrat" is just ****ing gratuitous.

 

[JettaKnight]

To be fair....to ask a governor to know epidemiology when so much disinformation is coming from Federal levels of expected competency....is, perhaps, a bit much.

And the "democrat" is just ****ing gratuitous.

IKR? They should just ask the epidemiology experts on the internet.

 

[foszoe]

Could we provide evidence for causation within an acceptable confidence interval according to standard testing procedures?

I honestly don't know if you can prove causation.

 

[HoughMade]

Yes. How nursing homes didn't implement strict isolation/quarantine controls (including for the healthcare workers there) completely escapes me.

And then there were the (mostly democrat) Governors who issued virtual death warrants by forcing nursing homes to take in COVID-positive/symptomatic residents/patients.

Personal anecdote:

A friend of my family and my sister's best friend works in a nursing home. This home was compelled to accept COVID-19 patients, but I don't know if they had COVID-19 carriers of "their own". Our friend contracted COVID-19 and then, before she knew it, apparently spread it to her brother and elderly parents, who all live in the same household. Her father, who was my Dad's best friend and my pastor when I was a teen, passed away yesterday due to COVID-19. Yes, he was in his later '80s and yes, he had underlying conditions, but still....

 

[foszoe]

I haven't seen the evidence to support that. Certainly in the case of Cuomo it was well publicized.

Yes. How nursing homes didn't implement strict isolation/quarantine controls (including for the healthcare workers there) completely escapes me.

And then there were the (mostly democrat) Governors who issued virtual death warrants by forcing nursing homes to take in COVID-positive/symptomatic residents/patients.