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    nonobaddog

    nonobaddog

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    GodFearinGunTotin said:
    The hypothesis I read a few days ago that what we’re just emerging from is actually the dreaded 2nd wave just might have some validity. The more I read about this sort of stuff, the more I’m starting to believe that hypothesis is true.

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/first...&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=fb-theblaze
    Click to expand...

    I would think different states/regions have different timelines depending on several factors like population density, when the chinese virus got there and when they started doing things to slow the spread. Minnesota has not peaked yet for the first wave.
     
    Tombs

    Tombs

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    First they call you a murderer if you don't wear a mask.

    Next they'll call you a murderer if you don't tape a pool toy to your head:
    XXDpY3R.jpg
     
    Oldgunfan

    Oldgunfan

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    GodFearinGunTotin said:
    The hypothesis I read a few days ago that what we’re just emerging from is actually the dreaded 2nd wave just might have some validity. The more I read about this sort of stuff, the more I’m starting to believe that hypothesis is true.

    https://www.theblaze.com/news/first...&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=fb-theblaze
    Click to expand...
    I'll add my experience:
    In November my wife and I traveled to France to take part in some 75th anniversary commemorations of the Liberation. We spent a number of hours standing in "lines" for customs with hundreds of Chinese tourists. Social distancing was not a thing.... About 2 weeks later, I developed a dry cough (which I made mental note of at the time just because I've never had a dry cough when I get sick). Then I had a miserable week long chills and fever that wouldn't break, even with 2400 mg ibuprofen daily combined with tylenol. After a week (and a negative flu test), the doctor treated me for pneumonia and gave me Augmentin (amoxicillin plus). The fever finally broke, but after another week the doctor upped my antibiotic to azithromycin.

    Did I have coronavirus? I have no idea, but today I'd put it at an even 50% chance, whereas a month ago the known timelines had me putting it at <5%.
     
    chipbennett

    chipbennett

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    nonobaddog said:
    You have the INGO bias that the chinese virus deaths are over-counted and your bias is showing. I believe that too but it isn't being open to pooh-pooh the case for under-counting so easily.
    There is an awful lot of expert's opinions and statements and anecdotal evidence of under-counting too, not just speculation as you said. Especially early on when there were no tests to check on the reason for that spike in pneumonia deaths. Some of these deaths have associated samples saved so they can check them someday when they get a round tuit.

    There was a graph earlier that showed a rise in expected deaths from all causes. The chinese virus was accounting for a part of that rise but the remainder was unexplained. This unexplained part could possibly be under-counting of chinese virus deaths.

    The main thing we can say is the numbers are not accurate - unless the over-counting and under-counting miraculously and accidentally cancel each other out.

    If we "follow the money" and look at the agenda of those most likely to lie about it - there is definitely a better case for over-counting.
    Click to expand...

    Oh, I readily admit my bias in that regard. But, it is not merely bias. We know, for a fact, that non-COVID deaths have been counted as COVID deaths. That evidence is anecdotal. As I'm fond of saying, the plural of "anecdote" is not "data"; so, I'm not claiming even statistical significance to the over-counting - only that we know that it is happening.

    By contrast, all of the claims of under-counting involve cases that cannot be proven empirically. (If they can, such as the samples you reference, then they get counted, and no longer represent an under-count.) And, given my belief with respect to actual timing of the spread, I agree that there are COVID deaths that have not been counted. But, that belief, still, is mere speculation.

    The bolded part is the bottom line. Most attempts to make claims about "actual" COVID death numbers are based on driving one narrative or another - and I don't exclude myself from that assertion.
     
    KMaC

    KMaC

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    I saw a news report that Trump doesn't wear a mask because he is tested every day. Does anyone know if there is a different test than shown on local news involving a 6" swab pushed to the very back of the nasal cavity and supposedly very painful.
    Trump just doesn't seem to be the type to get a very painful nasal swab every day.
    Is there a less painful test available? I want the Trump test.
     
    MCgrease08

    MCgrease08

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    KMaC said:
    I saw a news report that Trump doesn't wear a mask because he is tested every day. Does anyone know if there is a different test than shown on local news involving a 6" swab pushed to the very back of the nasal cavity and supposedly very painful.
    Trump just doesn't seem to be the type to get a very painful nasal swab every day.
    Is there a less painful test available? I want the Trump test.
    Click to expand...

    According to a report I heard on NPR yesterday Trump and the White House team gets the Abbott laboratories test which is the quick test that's supposed to give results within a few minutes.

    I don't know if that's the one with the nasal swab or not. I'm guessing it isn't. But the crux of the NPR report wAs that there is something like a 14-19% false negative rate with that test. Meaning someone with COVID still test negative. So they were talking about whether the White House staff was considering using a different test, or how useful it is to rely just on testing.
     
    foszoe

    foszoe

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    I believe the testing method is the same, but results are quicker .

    MCgrease08 said:
    According to a report I heard on NPR yesterday Trump and the White House team gets the Abbott laboratories test which is the quick test that's supposed to give results within a few minutes.

    I don't know if that's the one with the nasal swab or not. I'm guessing it isn't. But the crux of the NPR report wAs that there is something like a 14-19% false negative rate with that test. Meaning someone with COVID still test negative. So they were talking about whether the White House staff was considering using a different test, or how useful it is to rely just on testing.
    Click to expand...
     
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