Ebola on the horizon?

[pudly]

The Associated Press and other press outlets have agreed not to report on suspected cases of Ebola in the United States until a positive viral RNA test is completed.

(link) So, the press is apparently agreeing to shut down most Ebola coverage. I guess the Ebola Czar is on the job, manipulating the press. He is a political fixer, rather than knowledgeable about public health, after all.

 

[T.Lex]

Ok, I totally get what you're saying, but I've grown tiresome of the media crying "wolf" so much. Personally, I would rather some filtering happen at some point such that we only find out when it is either probable or confirmed. All this suspected nonsense just becomes noise.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

 

[T.Lex]

Pretty quiet on the ebola front. Too quiet.

New Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone raises fears of new infection chain | World news | The Guardian

A fresh outbreak of Ebola in a part of Sierra Leone where the virus was thought to have been contained has raised fears of a new, uncontrolled infection chain that could send the death toll soaring.

A Red Cross ambulance team was sent to the remote district of Koinadugu, which had prided itself on being the only area to have kept Ebola at bay, on Tuesday to urgently collect 30 corpses for medical burial.

Since it is isolated, if this is another "chain" then it may burn itself out relatively quickly.

 

[pudly]

Pretty quiet on the ebola front. Too quiet.

(link) So, the press is apparently agreeing to shut down most Ebola coverage. I guess the Ebola Czar is on the job, manipulating the press. He is a political fixer, rather than knowledgeable about public health, after all.

As noted above, the press has arranged with the government to suppress Ebola news. I would have been shocked if it had been anything but "quiet".

 

[smokingman]

Pretty quiet on the ebola front. Too quiet.

New Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone raises fears of new infection chain | World news | The Guardian


Since it is isolated, if this is another "chain" then it may burn itself out relatively quickly.

Not sure how isolated it is.I would not call the spread being 6 times what it was 2 months ago in the capitol isolated.
Ebola in Sierra Leone 'spreading 9 x faster than 2 months ago', campaigners warn  | Daily Mail Online
AGI - an organisation set up by former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair – said rates are also increasing in the capital Freetown, with six times more new cases recorded per day than two months ago.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

Election day is over, so of course, Ebola is back

BREAKING Five monitored for possible #Ebola symptoms in NC

 

[88GT]

As noted above, the press has arranged with the government to suppress Ebola news. I would have been shocked if it had been anything but "quiet".

I don't really need to know every time someone has come down with a fever. Or even when someone is being isolated for quarantine, just in case. In fact, I'm a little tired of the over-reporting on every new sniffle. I'd settle for honest reporting of confirmed cases.

 

[dusty88]

I don't really need to know every time someone has come down with a fever. Or even when someone is being isolated for quarantine, just in case. In fact, I'm a little tired of the over-reporting on every new sniffle. I'd settle for honest reporting of confirmed cases.

I think it's getting tiresome because there aren't new cases, so people are relaxing a bit.

If people don't want to hear it, it will move down the page. That in itself certainly doesn't justify a politician trying to influence the press.

I can see reasons for asking the press not to report. Specifically, anyone who goes to a hospital should not have their private information broadcast to the public unless the public or certain individuals are in danger. I'm not sure where the legal requirements are about the general statements that were sometimes made (ie an Ebola suspect at Hospital X).

I am cynical that this is really being done for the good of the people or for panic purposes though. If we wanted to get the press to do something constructive, they would stop their sensational reporting of mass murderers. Instead, they are all lining up to add to the drama and attention given the wackos.

I tend to agree this is political, to stop people from criticizing the administration's decisions. The media has no trouble going along with it at the moment, because interest has stopped anyway. I don't know what will happen as we continue to see sporadic imported cases (which is likely). I think though if we have information that Ebola was actually spread within the US again (especially outside the hospital system) that will be big news.

 

[T.Lex]

I don't really need to know every time someone has come down with a fever. Or even when someone is being isolated for quarantine, just in case. In fact, I'm a little tired of the over-reporting on every new sniffle. I'd settle for honest reporting of confirmed cases.

^^ This.

Not sure how isolated it is.I would not call the spread being 6 times what it was 2 months ago in the capitol isolated.
Ebola in Sierra Leone 'spreading 9 x faster than 2 months ago', campaigners warn* | Daily Mail Online
AGI - an organisation set up by former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair – said rates are also increasing in the capital Freetown, with six times more new cases recorded per day than two months ago.

The way I see, there are 2 different issues. In the capital, it is still an infection rate of ~2 (each patient infects 2 other people). In the article I posted, a remote area - 5 hours from the capital - that had, up to now, been untouched, had 30 fatalities.

Like a fire, if it is contained in a given area, it will eventually use up all the fuel and die out. While a cold statement in terms of human suffering, that is the reality. It is certainly a problem, but one that you know will resolve itself eventually.

But, if the fire is moving to areas with more fuel, that's a whole different problem.

 

[Bunnykid68]

My head hurts and my eyes are bleeding, should I see the doc or just go to the mall for some light shopping?

 

[88GT]

My head hurts and my eyes are bleeding, should I see the doc or just go to the mall for some light shopping?

You'd have a better chance of not infecting anyone by going shopping.

 

[printcraft]

You'd have a better chance of not infecting anyone by going shopping.

This, followed up with a couple of games at the local bowling alley and top the evening off at the local buffet is the best course of action to keep it as isolated as possible.

 

[slowG]

You could serve at a soup kitchen..

 

[T.Lex]

Apparently, according to Obama and the CDC, if you have ebola, you need to put all your friends and loved ones on a bus when you're with them. You can't get ebola from sitting next to someone on a bus.

Forget this quarantine stuff.

 

[dusty88]

Still no new cases in Mali since the one last week. It's early but that's good news.

 

[dieselrealtor]

My head hurts and my eyes are bleeding, should I see the doc or just go to the mall for some light shopping?

Neither, hit the buffet at Golden Corral.

 

[T.Lex]

Updated WHO numbers as of Oct. 29 (Oct. 25 for Liberia) - 13,540 cases in West Africa, with 4,941 deaths.

Ok, step with me through the looking glass of ebola statistics.

New, updated WHO numbers as of Nov. 2: 13,042 cases, 4,818 deaths.

Yes, Virginia, those are lower than last week. (To mix literary references.)

WHO explains the discrepancy thusly:

The fewer cases reported this week compared with the Situation Report of 29 October is due to a change in the use of data sources. In this report, the cumulative total numbers of cases and deaths nationally (table 1) and by district (figures 1-3) are identical to those presented in situation reports compiled by ministries of health and WHO country offices. Previously, these totals were derived from a combination of patient databases and country situation reports. The revised approach unifies the totals presented in this report with those given in national reports.

So, there is a normalization of data gathering, which is a good thing. It also leads to the conclusion that there had been some double-counting (which is completely understandable). Of course, the reality is that the "true" numbers are bigger, we just don't know by how much.

It does stymy, at a certain level, the ability to chart the spread of the outbreak over time.

 

[T.Lex]

New, revise, retroactive numbers for West Africa:

Date	Total
	Cases	Deaths
4-Nov-14	13,200	5,275
2-Nov-14	13,014	5,191
30-Oct-14	12,647	5,087
24-Oct-14	11,868	5,026

I think the revisions went back before then, at least in terms of deaths.

But, it appears that the virus lethality is decreasing along with the rate of growth. Cases doubled since approx. Sept. 23 (6+ weeks ago). Deaths doubled since approx. Sept. 13.

Given the lack of spread in the US and other "western" countries (knock on wood), instead of millions of infections, we may be seeing this outbreak grind to a halt.

 

[Justus]

Given the lack of spread in the US and other "western" countries (knock on wood), instead of millions of infections, we may be seeing this outbreak grind to a halt.

I like the sound of that...