Ebola on the horizon?

[subtlesixer03]

Another thing I am fairly worried about is those crazy hajis in north western nigeria. They are very close to a jahad super weopon. They could very easily kidnap some infected people and wreak some serous havok.

 

[Dixiejack]

Contagious through direct contact with bodily fluids. As a middle aged, married, monogamous guy, my direct contacts with anybody else's bodily fluids are few and far between.

Interestingly enough, semen is the bodily fluid that Ebola survives in the longest. There are documented cases of male survivors infecting their mates weeks after all symptoms have disappeared and the virus is not detectible in their blood.

AIDS came from Africa. What other diseases can we expect from Africa?

 

[T.Lex]

Well, I'm thinking those WHO people know what they're talking about. Haven't seen the official numbers yet, but Reuters is reporting:

As the death toll rose to more than 2,400 people out of 4,784 cases, WHO director general Margaret Chan said the vast nature of the outbreak -- particularly in the three hardest-hit countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone -- required a massive emergency response.

So, that's more than double since August 12. It's also on track to exceed 7k cases using a ^2 polynomial trend line. A ^3 (which actually matches the historic curve better) puts it at nearly 8k by the end of the month. Using ^3 also puts it at nearly 10k in just 30 days from now (only 9k with a ^2).

Unclear where the increases are coming from, but I think its Liberia.

ETA:
Interesting semi-scholarly article (not sure if I love a website named "eurosurveillance").
Eurosurveillance - View Article

[SIZE=+0]The effective reproduction number, R[SUB]t[/SUB], which measures the average number of secondary cases generated by a typical primary case at a given calendar time, can be helpful to understand the EVD transmission dynamics over time in affected countries as well as gauge the effect of control interventions [8]. Values of R[SUB]t[/SUB]<1 indicate that the epidemic is in a downward trend. By contrast, an epidemic is in an increasing trend if R[SUB]t[/SUB]>1.
...

Estimates of R[SUB]t[/SUB] using total case reports from June to July 2014, a period during which exponential growth of cases has been observed in Sierra Leone and Liberia, ranged from 1.4 to 1.7, respectively. In the hypothetical worst-case scenario that the current situation with an estimated reproduction number R ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 continues for the remainder of the year, we would expect to observe a total of 77,181 to 277,124 additional cases within 2014.
[/SIZE]

The article does state, however, that it is unlikely that the Rt will continue at the current level.

It also specifically did not address what would happen if ebola crossed into a new country.

ETA2:
Somewhat odd update from WHO. They updated to Sept. 7 with numbers that seemed to increase the cases (from Sept. 6) but decrease the deaths. But, it is still less than the numbers reported by Reuters.

I think they're trying to standardize the Liberian numbers/dates and Sept. 7 is the best they can do at this point. There is no doubt that the numbers are bigger than the Sept. 7 numbers, but they're just not sure by how much.

 

[T.Lex]

New numbers tallied from a couple sources - 4,846 cases, 2,375 deaths.

That's up 800 cases in a week. Makes it about 25% of the way to doubling this month. In other words, right on track.

Statistically speaking, it will reach a point where it is almost inevitable that it will cross a border. Not sure where that point is, but it seems like we're inching toward it.

Also read an article about possible mutations. That's some scary stuff when you think of the trillions of virus-generations that are occurring with each re-transmission.

 

[subtlesixer03]

Words out it could be airborne and suddenly no new info in the last 2 days. Im not likeing that.

 

[Whosyer]

Another thing I am fairly worried about is those crazy hajis in north western nigeria. They are very close to a jahad super weopon. They could very easily kidnap some infected people and wreak some serous havok.

1. Load plane with ebola patients. 2.Fly plane to Mexico. 3. Walk infected folks across the border.

 

[T.Lex]

1. Load plane with ebola patients. 2.Fly plane to Mexico. 3. Walk infected folks across the border.

Here's an even better plan: get 20 ebola patients, put 2 each on trans-Atlantic flights or flights to Europe, make sure they give lots of hugs and rub up against people and stuff - maybe accidentally puke on the floor. Heck, maybe even just get them jobs in food-preparation at airports.

With something like this, they don't need a direct route to the US to weaponize the disease.

 

[T.Lex]

Oh! It is already here we just are not being told about it yet.

Hmmm... I open to being convinced. How do you know?

Edit:
Doesn't look like any WHO updates, but here's an interesting article.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world...63cb62-3a07-11e4-8601-97ba88884ffd_story.html

Well, it is interesting about the dude, but I love it when a story about one thing gives up a tidbit of information about something else. Check out what brought this American virologist to Sierra Leone:

His new job: to advise Sierra Leone’s government on a tiny Ebola outbreak in neighboring Guinea, at the behest of the U.S. Defense Department.

Mmmmm.... maybe some people in the administration are paying attention.

 

[T.Lex]

Looks like WHO updated the numbers to Sept. 13 for Guinea/Sierra Leone/Nigeria/Senegal and Sept. 9 for Liberia: 4985 total cases, 2461 deaths.

That's a modest increase for a 3 day span.

 

[churchmouse]

So I hear we are sending Military personnel over there to set up support and control.........

I heard it on the radio and have no links but the big "O" is sending our people that way.

 

[printcraft]

So I hear we are sending Military personnel over there to set up support and control.........

I heard it on the radio and have no links but the big "O" is sending our people that way.

U.S. pledges 3,000 troops to fight West Africa's Ebola crisis | Reuters



3000 more direct risks of American exposures soon to be returning stateside!

 

[churchmouse]

U.S. pledges 3,000 troops to fight West Africa's Ebola crisis | Reuters



3000 more direct risks of American exposures soon to be returning stateside!

Knew someone would come through.

 

[CountryBoy19]

I've been quietly watching this, but just today saw a thread with a CDC paper in the Breakroom http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/spb/mnpages/dispages/Fact_Sheets/Ebola_Fact_Booklet.pdf

I'm a numbers guy, the infection/outbreak stats listed in that paper got me wondering.
Just a few facts on Ebola that I picked up from that paper and the current outbreak.

Total Cases (excluding the Reston strain that doesn't cause illness in humans) from 1976 (when Ebola was discovered) - 2010: 2292, Deaths from those cases: 1540, for a death rate of ~61%

Total cases so far this year alone have more than doubled all previous combined cases of Ebola and the death rate is ~51% so really not a great deal of difference from previous outbreaks except the massive scale of the existing outbreak and the locations. Previously most outbreaks were in isolated areas, rain-forest hunting camps, isolated mining communities/camps, scientists studying in isolated areas etc. This outbreak has hit some MAJOR population centers which has the possibillity to explode like we've seen. That being said, I think the containment has been fairly good considering what is possible with this. I certainly hope that the assistance we are sending can help them keep it contained and get this under control.

The interesting thing to take note of though is the cases in European & western countries. All were contracted in Africa and they travelled before they knew they were infected or travelled for the purpose of getting better medical attention. Prior to this year there was only 1 case, and that person survived. This year we have had 3 such cases and all three survived under the care of civilized medical assistance. Throw in South Africa (fairly civilized with better medical attention than most sub-saharan Africa) and you have 2 case with 1 fatality.

I realize that is very little information to base conclusions on but I still think this is being overblown as far as people panicking that we're exposing ourselves by bringing patients/cases to the US. European and Western medical treatments can kick this thing easily as long as the system isn't overwhelmed.

 

[T.Lex]

I agree, in that "western" medical care significantly increase survivability - mostly through keeping people hydrated. But, that in itself is a numbers game.

Any central Indiana hospital (PURE speculation) can handle what - maybe 100 intense re-hydration patients? 200? And they would have to treat each patient, for a couple weeks to make sure they were better and that the virus was past its incubation period.

It sounds like we could probably handle something like that. But, if it scales up to a point where a thousand people are infected each week, then I think we'd have problems.

 

[T.Lex]

New WHO numbers, as of Sept. 14: 5335 cases, with 2622 deaths. Pretty steady growth, with Liberia and Sierra Leone showing increases in patients. Guinea looks to be pretty stable.

Trendline (polynomial) still looks to be at 7k by the end of the month and 10k in 30 days.

The number of cases per day (average) is jumping around a bit. High in the last month of 160, low of 71, most recent was 122. They are still adding about 100 cases per day, it looks like.

WHO says 45% of cases are still within the last 21 days.

Still contained geographically, it appears. So that's good. (Unless you are in those areas.)

ETA:
Well, this is curious.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/health/sierra-leone-hopes-to-slow-ebola-outbreak-with-3-day-shutdown-1.2012592

In an attempt to slow the outbreak and identify the sick in hiding, Sierra Leone's 6 million people must stay home starting Thursday at midnight, except for thousands of volunteers who will go house-to-house delivering bars of soap and information about how to prevent Ebola.

So... everyone stays inside. Understand that part. But, thousands of volunteers are going to go house to house. Ostensibly, from possibly contaminated houses to other non-contaminated houses.

This strikes me as a bad idea.

 

[CountryBoy19]

ETA:
Well, this is curious.

Sierra Leone hopes to slow Ebola outbreak with 3-day shutdown | CTV News


So... everyone stays inside. Understand that part. But, thousands of volunteers are going to go house to house. Ostensibly, from possibly contaminated houses to other non-contaminated houses.

This strikes me as a bad idea.

If you read the article in your post #168 I believe it references this as a large push by the Epidemiologist in that article and Sierra Leone's health ministry (or whatever it's called) to educate people, provide a means of cleansing themselves, and hopefully find other sick people.

This is not going to be stopped or slowed down unless they can successfully educate the people on hygiene. I'm hoping the volunteers are well-trained at fighting/preventing spread of this and they take the proper precautions in doing so. I don't see any other way to contain this. You can't wall people off and just leave them without resources, if they can't slow it down where it's at, they're going to have a much worse problem on their hands...

 

[T.Lex]

If you read the article in your post #168 I believe it references this as a large push by the Epidemiologist in that article and Sierra Leone's health ministry (or whatever it's called) to educate people, provide a means of cleansing themselves, and hopefully find other sick people.

Indeed it did. But this more recent article was the first one I'd seen directly addressing the shutdown.

I disagree a bit on the hygiene part. I mean, good hygiene is good for its own sake. But, that is only part of the issue. A significant number of health care workers have been hit this time. One would think that the medical workers' hygiene would be good. Yet, they still contracted it.

I'm sure they must be desperate over there to get this under control. I just hope this door-to-door thing doesn't come back to bite them.

 

[Justus]

One would think that the medical workers' hygiene would be good. Yet, they still contracted it.

^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^

.....needs to be written into every ebola article.

 

[Justus]

RAW Ebola doctors plead for help - News - CBC Player

Eerie video of an ebola field hospital.

 

[T.Lex]

Not much going on today, numbers-wise.

More info on the Sierra Leone lockdown, including some criticism from Doctors Without Borders:
Sierra Leone starts nationwide lockdown to stop Ebola - CNN.com

"Forced quarantines and lockdowns are driving people underground and jeopardizing the trust between people and health providers," the charity group said in a statement this month. "This is leading to the concealment of cases and is pushing the sick away from health systems."

Also, a blog article that follows up on my post way upthread about Liberia's history:
Don?t forget: Liberia, ravaged by the Ebola epidemic, was created by the U.S. - The Washington Post