INGO Investing Game

[hoosierdoc]

I wouldn't touch oil with a 10ft pole, except possibly to short. It will be a good while (certainly longer than this year) before the current excessive production + reserves decline enough for significant price rises.

I short some oil shand company and doing well so far

 

[pudly]

I can believe it. A lot of commodities (iron, copper, oil, etc) are hurting right now. If you believe (as I do) that we are in a global recession/depression, then these industries are going to be hurting for a while. There is a lot of excess production capacity compared to current demand. A percentage of those businesses will die and it is only when there are both fewer businesses producing and any current inventory is exhausted that prices will go back up. Since it takes a while to get a mining operation producing, there will be a period when demand will greatly outstrip production causing spikes in both commodity and mining stock prices.

Buy low/sell high is definitely possible here, but when they recover and which ones will survive are the major potholes to avoid. I don't see that happening within the next year, so that type of speculation/investment might be okay for longer-term investing, but won't happen soon enough for this game.

PS- That investing advise is worth exactly what you paid for it.

 

[miguel]

Is it too late to join?

 

[pudly]

Nope. Join in. It is a year-long game that has only been going on for 2 weeks so far and you will be ahead of at least half the group to start.

 

[atvdave]

Got in... I think.

It let be buy stock, but I dont see my name in the list. Maybe it takes 24hr's.

 

[pudly]

I think you need to have at least one completed trade to show up. There are currently 20 players who have joined, but only 18 show up in the ratings list. Unfortunately, the ratings list does not instantly update. It changes multiple times during the day, but it currently shows the last update at 3:39pm while the stock market closed at 4:30pm.

 

[CHCRandy]

Can anyone say bloodbath! I bought 40,000 CHK yesterday at close, banking on the big bet to dig me out........this gonna be ugly.

 

[bwframe]

Graph, chart, etc. for all participants?

 

[steveh_131]

I can believe it. A lot of commodities (iron, copper, oil, etc) are hurting right now. If you believe (as I do) that we are in a global recession/depression, then these industries are going to be hurting for a while. There is a lot of excess production capacity compared to current demand. A percentage of those businesses will die and it is only when there are both fewer businesses producing and any current inventory is exhausted that prices will go back up. Since it takes a while to get a mining operation producing, there will be a period when demand will greatly outstrip production causing spikes in both commodity and mining stock prices.

Buy low/sell high is definitely possible here, but when they recover and which ones will survive are the major potholes to avoid. I don't see that happening within the next year, so that type of speculation/investment might be okay for longer-term investing, but won't happen soon enough for this game.

PS- That investing advise is worth exactly what you paid for it.

What makes you think we're in a global recession?

I'm not disagreeing, just interested in your opinion. This was a well thought-out post.

 

[pudly]

Graph, chart, etc. for all participants?

Would be interesting, but there is no graphical view to show how everyone is doing. There is a current ranking page here: http://www.market-watch.com/game/INGO/ranking (remove the dash)

Note that it is not up to the minute. Feel free to jump in. It is free and fun.

 

[pudly]

What makes you think we're in a global recession?

I'm not disagreeing, just interested in your opinion. This was a well thought-out post.

Sorry, I'm going to wimp out on you on this one. I could write pages on this, but I'll just throw out some links for you to look at:

• 18 Bullets Showing That A Global Recession Is Already Here | Zero Hedge (somewhat dated now, but good info)
• Maersk warns business conditions worse than during 2008 crisis - FT.com (the largest shipping company in the world is struggling due to a severe decline in international trade)
• Markets Around The World Are Crashing; Gold Soars | Zero Hedge (this is admittedly short-term info, but reflects the larger point)
• Debt, defaults, and devaluations: why this market crash is like nothing we've seen before - Telegraph (longer, but good article)

 

[CHCRandy]

Pudly........You are catching ole Nick pretty quickly. What you been trading? 11% yesterday!! I am starting my comeback today.

 

[pudly]

Good luck CHCRandy. The items that boomed for me yesterday were shorting the market and silver. I have a high volatility portfolio and don't expect it to be a smooth ride, but it was a good day for my virtual investments.

 

[CHCRandy]

Good luck CHCRandy. The items that boomed for me yesterday were shorting the market and silver. I have a high volatility portfolio and don't expect it to be a smooth ride, but it was a good day for my virtual investments.

I am amazed you have made 7 trades and gained 25%.......makes me think less may be best. You still see a lot of downside to the market? Japan is getting slaughtered. My gut says market still has downside....but then I see BAC, SYF, HURC and many others so distressed, while making big profit....that I wonder how much lower can they really go.

Doc McStudmuffin doing pretty good as well, while using the less is best system.........

 

[pudly]

I'm not a day trader, so I can't/wouldn't trade like Nick. I'm looking primarily at larger/longer term market drivers. I don't expect to be doing any heavy trading and will only get out of my current positions if I'm convinced that their trends have run their course. This is a game, so going with higher risk setups makes sense if you are interested in being competitive. However, it is not a portfolio I'd recommend for your life's savings.

And yes, I see considerable downside for the overall stock market. Keep an eye out for value stocks, but I'm not sure that they won't suffer for a while yet before they start to rise and likely outperform the market. This is a down market, which is why most of the group is under water right now. If it was a rising market, then more than half would be positive. Finding the jewels in this muck is the tricky part.

There is a long-running thread on economics issues that you might want to follow: https://www.indianagunowners.com/forums/general-political-discussion/111081-stocks-gold-silver-printing-press.html. If you look at the last few days, you'll see some of my pessimism about where things are headed and links to further info.

 

[CHCRandy]

Thanks for the link Pudly. Looks like some very good reading. I appreciate your thoughts and opinions. I get so tired of listening to Kudlow and Cramer and other elitists who have reason to drive the market.....it's refreshing to get honest thoughts from people who have no reason to blow smoke up our backsides.

 

[pudly]

FYI- Based on pre-market indicators, I fully expect to go back down today. But since the economic outlook/drivers haven't changed in the last 24 hours, that is something I'll simply keep any eye on. It is easy to get trapped by short-term changes and chase the market.

 

[hoosierdoc]

Can we change it to be able to view other portfolios?

 

[CHCRandy]

I think I can change it to public if you guys want to....may make some unhappy, but it is just a game and I think it would be ok to see each others.

I will see what you guys say before doing it.

 

[Mark-DuCo]

I'm ok with going public