Stock market.... What are you doing?

[maxwelhse]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/26/cruise-line-bailout/

Cruise lines don't qualify for bailout?

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[nonobaddog]

Can't read it either but that sounds OK with me. They are not American companies.

ETA - yeah, I said that wrong, I think it is their boats that are not American. And that is a pretty big chunk of a cruise line.

 

[maxwelhse]

I ended up getting cold feet and canceled my orders to sell off my Norwegian and American Airlines. The order was put in at closing and wasn't gonna execute till this morning. The futures were negative last night and jobs reports coming out today looked bad. Was sure there would have been a 2000pt sell off today. But this morning futures were in the positive by half percent and pre-market trading was positive 3%, so I cancelled my sell orders. At closing today I didn't really gain much but didn't lose my gains from previous 3 days either. I hated selling for a small profit when I bought those stocks at such a great deal. I picked up 25 shares of CCL today too. I missed the bottom on that one I think. I'll be dumping another $2k into stocks very shortly after this stimulus bill passes. Should build some market confidence. How long it'll last no one knows. This may be a bull trap

Wait a second... You're saying you had the opportunity to yield at least a 100% profit and passed on it? That's pretty bold. The only one I've ever held that far up the tree was INO, because it was just straight up on fire blew straight through 100%, and I ended up selling it up 100% anyhow and stressed over it for 3 extra days for no extra money. I've also held more than a few that gained 50% and then promptly gave it all back and then some in the next session. Since then, I'm trying to teach myself to take some profits. At least at a 100% gain, sell half your position and get your initial investment back, IMHO.

I'm also not sure if I'm reading that you're only trading during market hours? If you're going to try these day trades, you gotta get extended hours for sure. Learned that the hard way too.

I'm not sure that I would have gotten into CCL today, but it's so crazy it's hard to tell. From experience with the straight garbage I've dabbled in before, which I wouldn't really consider CCL to belong to, jumping in after a 90% run is pretty gutsy, even if it fell 90% first. Looks like it's holding gains, but you're totally right that it especially CCL could be a bull trap because if any bad news at all drops it, guys like me will be out with their profits (even if at this point they're reasonably small profits, at least for me) and you will be a new bag holder.

Based on what you said, you're more aggressive than I am and I'm pretty stupidly aggressive a lot of days. I hope we both get some nice ammo money, but wow, you're playing for keeps!

 

[maxwelhse]

Can't read it either but that sounds OK with me. They are not American companies.

ETA - yeah, I said that wrong, I think it is their boats that are not American. And that is a pretty big chunk of a cruise line.

Without knowing exactly what the article says, I can't firmly comment, but Trump totally did say he was going to bail them out and then totally did say they were going to "look more" at not bailing them out if they don't re-register their boats (or businesses, or whatever) and the market totally did react to that in real time. They shook it off pretty quickly though.

It could just be classic Trump talking out of his rear on camera with policies on paper behind him that are generally good, but we won't know until later. Taking him at his word is a crazy ass game to play because the guy is half schizophrenic went he speaks.

Anyhow... I'm am generally in favor of not bailing out US businesses that are not US businesses. You want the corn, you take the stalk too.

 

[Alpo]

Just the highlights: Not American registered ships. Companies not US corporations. Avoid most US taxation. Employees Indonesian and Filipino.

So....no go.

But that's today. Tomorrow may be something else.

 

[maxwelhse]

Just the highlights: Not American registered ships. Companies not US corporations. Avoid most US taxation. Employees Indonesian and Filipino.

So....no go.

But that's today. Tomorrow may be something else.

Well, as of today, I support that decision.

 

[NyleRN]

Wait a second... You're saying you had the opportunity to yield at least a 100% profit and passed on it? That's pretty bold. The only one I've ever held that far up the tree was INO, because it was just straight up on fire blew straight through 100%, and I ended up selling it up 100% anyhow and stressed over it for 3 extra days for no extra money. I've also held more than a few that gained 50% and then promptly gave it all back and then some in the next session. Since then, I'm trying to teach myself to take some profits. At least at a 100% gain, sell half your position and get your initial investment back, IMHO.

I'm also not sure if I'm reading that you're only trading during market hours? If you're going to try these day trades, you gotta get extended hours for sure. Learned that the hard way too.

I'm not sure that I would have gotten into CCL today, but it's so crazy it's hard to tell. From experience with the straight garbage I've dabbled in before, which I wouldn't really consider CCL to belong to, jumping in after a 90% run is pretty gutsy, even if it fell 90% first. Looks like it's holding gains, but you're totally right that it especially CCL could be a bull trap because if any bad news at all drops it, guys like me will be out with their profits (even if at this point they're reasonably small profits, at least for me) and you will be a new bag holder.

Based on what you said, you're more aggressive than I am and I'm pretty stupidly aggressive a lot of days. I hope we both get some nice ammo money, but wow, you're playing for keeps!

Well, I'm new to this stock buying/selling. I give my Edward Jones guy my money each month for my IRAs and then I adopted Robinhood for a play thing. My original goal was to buy stocks at greatly reduced prices and ride the wave back up over a 2-3yr period. I was primarily looking at those that had lost 50-70% of their value from just 5 weeks ago. I'm hoping they (airlines, cruise) don't go under and they get back to their old 1yr highs. I can make 4-6x my money. Like I said, that's the original plan. What happened is when the market spiked this week I seen the good profits I made and then started to study and analyze the market based on current events and articles(of opinion). That led me to thinking about selling off for a short term gain. I need to pick a side. Either buy low in a volatile market, sit on them and hope they don't go bankrupt or buy for short term gains. I feel that if I'm going to do the latter then I need a lot more time to devote to studying and analyzing these companies and the market, which I honestly don't have time to do.

 

[maxwelhse]

Well, I'm new to this stock buying/selling. I give my Edward Jones guy my money each month for my IRAs and then I adopted Robinhood for a play thing. My original goal was to buy stocks at greatly reduced prices and ride the wave back up over a 2-3yr period. I was primarily looking at those that had lost 50-70% of their value from just 5 weeks ago. I'm hoping they (airlines, cruise) don't go under and they get back to their old 1yr highs. I can make 4-6x my money. Like I said, that's the original plan. What happened is when the market spiked this week I seen the good profits I made and then started to study and analyze the market based on current events and articles(of opinion). That led me to thinking about selling off for a short term gain. I need to pick a side. Either buy low in a volatile market, sit on them and hope they don't go bankrupt or buy for short term gains. I feel that if I'm going to do the latter then I need a lot more time to devote to studying and analyzing these companies and the market, which I honestly don't have time to do.

Sounds like you've got a reasonable plan then. The only other caution I would give you is that when the market started falling apart a couple of weeks back, Robinhood went down for hours at a time (I believe for an entire day one of those times) and all the 'hooders were screaming bloody murder as they lost money uncontrollably with absolutely nothing they could do about it. Likewise, as things spiked up and down those times, they sat out opportunities to take profits too...

So, I guess the TLDR there is Robinhood sucks, IMO. Can you open another EJ account and use their app/site without mixing the money from your real investments?

 

[NyleRN]

So, I guess the TLDR there is Robinhood sucks, IMO. Can you open another EJ account and use their app/site without mixing the money from your real investments?

Not sure about an EJ app for stock trading. I know that one of my IRAs( my Roth I think) is a transitional account and I can call him up any time and have him move x amount to whatever

 

[maxwelhse]

Not sure about an EJ app for stock trading. I know that one of my IRAs( my Roth I think) is a transitional account and I can call him up any time and have him move x amount to whatever

My guess is he'd get pretty annoyed if you tried to day trade like that.

Anyhow, food for thought. I have no interest in any particular brokerage other than the warning about RH turning to crap right when the users needed it the most. I use Fidelity, but I exclusively use the web site. My buddy uses their phone app and it always seems to lag behind, but it does work. I think half of his problem is Cricket wireless since he also doesn't get about 1/2 of the texts I send him.

 

[smokingman]

My take on the current markets.

You are in a movie theater. It is intermission so they can change over the reel to the last half of the movie.
The building is on fire,but they are having a sale at the concession stand. Do you get a drink and tub of pop corn and go sit to watch the rest of the film,
or go to the nearest exit?
Oh,and the fire marshal just inspected the building,said everything was in order and he even took the time to stop at the concession stand and got a coke on his way out.

The movie is getting great reviews on social media. Second half may be worth seeing according to those who run the theater.
....free peanuts at the concession stand!

 

[hoosierdoc]

Should have held my NCLH put I see. But happy for the $450 swing. May buy the call again this morning

 

[Hohn]

I'm strapped in. At this point it's only a paper loss. Bail now and it becomes are REAL loss.

 

[Doug]

I'm strapped in. At this point it's only a paper loss. Bail now and it becomes are REAL loss.

QFT
That's true of all my long term investments.

 

[maxwelhse]

Should have held my NCLH put I see. But happy for the $450 swing. May buy the call again this morning

Looks like the scenario I cautioned about yesterday with the cruise stocks came true this morning! CCL down 20%, NCLH down 23%. You did well anyhow, doc!

Like others have said, you only lose when you sell, and I'm only down 10% right now on CCL vs. not much more than a break even yesterday, so, I'm still in it. But... This is a reaffirmation that I need to look at options trading more carefully in the future.

But... at least my INO stock is on a rip again. My average is stupidly poor since I sold at a nice profit and then foolishly got back in. $10... We'll see what happens.

 

[TWalker]

My guess is he'd get pretty annoyed if you tried to day trade like that.

Anyhow, food for thought. I have no interest in any particular brokerage other than the warning about RH turning to crap right when the users needed it the most. I use Fidelity, but I exclusively use the web site. My buddy uses their phone app and it always seems to lag behind, but it does work. I think half of his problem is Cricket wireless since he also doesn't get about 1/2 of the texts I send him.

I use the Fidelity app, company I work for uses it for their ESPP program. I don't experience much lag. I actually use mostly apps, RH, WeBull, M1 and the Fidelity.

 

[maxwelhse]

I use the Fidelity app, company I work for uses it for their ESPP program. I don't experience much lag. I actually use mostly apps, RH, WeBull, M1 and the Fidelity.

Probably my buddy's crappy carrier then. The RH outage was very real though. I have no experience with anything other than Fidelity's web portal. It's pretty decent, IMO.

 

[CHCRandy]

I took my worse loss ever in the stock market. Completely screwed up on NRZ. I am so pissed and hurting over this, lol. I sold all my shares at $17.50+....thinking market would puke on itself. I was on cloud nine, almost all cash and up 30% for the year and waiting to put it to work. Started buying calls and then on 3-11 I started adding shares back, CEO spoke next day and sounded positive so I added a little more. It started falling and I went down $10,000+ before I could blink. Then I got crazy and bought more shares in $8's & 7's in a different account and set stop losses... when it fell to $6 all my stock sold. I ended up down over $20,000! The most disappointing part is I got scared and didnt buy back, so I missed most of the 100% gain the next days.

I did buy MFA when it dumped, and made good money on it but not nearly enough. I am looking for a revenge trade on NRZ.

I am so mad that this was no fault of the company...me or anyone else other than China. They completely screwed me. I will never eat Chinese food again! Of course.....I may be eating beans and bologna the rest of this year.

 

[melensdad]

I moved 80% of my money out of the market the week before the downturn. Several financial sources were reporting on the crash in production and outbreak in Wuhan in late December/early January. This was all public information. I've been watching it since that time. This whole financial mess was predictable and the economy shutting down was expected. People who didn't expect it were simply not watching.

Last week we've had a short rally for a few days.

I'm expecting another downturn this week.

I don't short the market, but I do sideline my money. I'm looking for the S&P500 to go into the 1800 range. Possibly 1700 range. Nasdaq 100 has faired better than most. When the time is right I'm going back into the market. I suppose it is possible that the market will go up, but New York's mayor, who is to blame for lagging behind others in shutting down his city, finally came out and admitted that NYC will likely be "closed" for all of APRIL and MAY. California is starting to grasp the situation. New Orleans, Chicago, Atlanta, most of Florida, Houston and a few other areas are going to become serious hot spots. Production here in the USA will stay shut down.

Stocks won't actually recover until after we actually see the light at the end of the tunnel. Wuhan has been dealing with this since November (not December as most suggest because production in Wuhan began to collapse BEFORE the virus was reported). This is a 4 to 5 month event. It will pass.

 

[nonobaddog]

I missed all the early warning signs in china exactly because I wasn't watching. I still have all my long time holds from before the big drop. Some of them are so old they are still OK and some are down quite a bit. I am going to continue to hold them long term and I believe they will be good again in several months.

However in a different account I did buy in during the drop but I bought before the bottom(dang it) and kept buying all the way to the bottom(so far). I'm stuck with these averaged down stocks, some are OK after this little rally and some are losers at this point. I also think they will pretty much all be winners in a few months.

I expect a drop over the next few weeks so I guess I'll have to buy more during this period. Overall I am betting heavily on a decent recovery - eventually.

I think there are a lot of people in the same boat with me.