Tariffs?

[JettaKnight]

They don't make any of the GE appliances because the GE parent company doesn't own GE Appliances any longer. Haier does. GE Healthcare, GE Aviation, GE Transportation, etc. are still under the GE umbrella.

Nevertheless, they've been on the decline. One need only look to their dividends to see this.

The end is nigh.

 

[JettaKnight]

Did I hear the radio right as I awakened?


Yes, yes I did.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...shift-motorbike-production-to-counter-tariffs

Those tariffs to make American great are costing us jobs. I wonder how the Harvey Danielson cult will take to them laying off workers here to hire Raul and Apu over there?

 

[Kutnupe14]

Did I hear the radio right as I awakened?


Yes, yes I did.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...shift-motorbike-production-to-counter-tariffs

Those tariffs to make American great are costing us jobs. I wonder how the Harvey Danielson cult will take to them laying off workers here to hire Raul and Apu over there?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Did I hear the radio right as I awakened?


Yes, yes I did.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...shift-motorbike-production-to-counter-tariffs

Those tariffs to make American great are costing us jobs. I wonder how the Harvey Danielson cult will take to them laying off workers here to hire Raul and Apu over there?

From the article: "A U.S. motorcycle sales slump has deepened since then, spurring Harley’s decision in January to close a plant in Kansas City, Missouri, eliminating about 260 jobs."

I suspect that declining U.S. sales has more to do with HD's predicament than EU tariffs. But it's popular to blame Trump, so let's go with that.

 

[BehindBlueI's]

From the article: "A U.S. motorcycle sales slump has deepened since then, spurring Harley’s decision in January to close a plant in Kansas City, Missouri, eliminating about 260 jobs."

I suspect that declining U.S. sales has more to do with HD's predicament than EU tariffs. But it's popular to blame Trump, so let's go with that.

It's both. The overall market is down, and nearly half of the market is in the EU. HD specifically stated they are ramping up production abroad to bypass EU tariffs.

“Increasing international production to alleviate the EU tariff burden is not the company’s preference, but represents the only sustainable option to make its motorcycles accessible to customers in the EU and maintain a viable business in Europe,” the company said in the filing.

 

[Kutnupe14]

From the article: "A U.S. motorcycle sales slump has deepened since then, spurring Harley’s decision in January to close a plant in Kansas City, Missouri, eliminating about 260 jobs."

I suspect that declining U.S. sales has more to do with HD's predicament than EU tariffs. But it's popular to blame Trump, so let's go with that.

I doubt that the American Harley buyer demographic agrees. Just a hunch, no facts.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

I doubt that the American Harley buyer demographic agrees. Just a hunch, no facts.

I was thinking more about the source of the story (Bloomberg) than about the HD buyer demographics.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

It's both. The overall market is down, and nearly half of the market is in the EU. HD specifically stated they are ramping up production abroad to bypass EU tariffs.

And if U.S. sales weren't slumping, I'm betting that the EU tariffs wouldn't be much of an issue. I'm just saying that their strategy can't be totally laid at the feet of tariffs. The tariffs are only one contributing factor. Their sales were down before the tariffs. Who did they blame then?

 

[BehindBlueI's]

And if U.S. sales weren't slumping, I'm betting that the EU tariffs wouldn't be much of an issue. I'm just saying that their strategy can't be totally laid at the feet of tariffs. The tariffs are only one contributing factor. Their sales were down before the tariffs. Who did they blame then?

Sales slumps in the US market are irrelevant to the EU market and irrelevant to conversation on tariffs.

Build the bike in the US and ship it to the EU. Bike costs an extra $2200 in tariff costs.
Build the bike in India and ship it to the EU. Bike doesn't get hit with tariff costs.

A $2200 increase of cost of manufacturing can only result in some combination of increased prices or decreased profit margins. Increasing prices in a stalled but stable market is a good way to lose market share. So, the incentive is to build the bikes in India (or elsewhere). COULD they suck up the loss if they had a booming home market? Probably, but the incentive is still to move production of bikes out of the tariff zone.

 

[JettaKnight]

And if U.S. sales weren't slumping, I'm betting that the EU tariffs wouldn't be much of an issue. I'm just saying that their strategy can't be totally laid at the feet of tariffs. The tariffs are only one contributing factor. Their sales were down before the tariffs. Who did they blame then?

The fact that fads die?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Sales slumps in the US market are irrelevant to the EU market and irrelevant to conversation on tariffs.

Build the bike in the US and ship it to the EU. Bike costs an extra $2200 in tariff costs.
Build the bike in India and ship it to the EU. Bike doesn't get hit with tariff costs.

A $2200 increase of cost of manufacturing can only result in some combination of increased prices or decreased profit margins. Increasing prices in a stalled but stable market is a good way to lose market share. So, the incentive is to build the bikes in India (or elsewhere). COULD they suck up the loss if they had a booming home market? Probably, but the incentive is still to move production of bikes out of the tariff zone.

Why is it then, that when companies ship jobs overseas because of wages, we criticize the companies and not the POTUS? I don't see this as anything different. Certain segments of the economy benefit from the tariffs (steel producers for example). Some segments will necessarily feel short term pain, or long term pain unless and until they start buying raw materials from U.S. companies at the same price point at which they were buying from foreign suppliers. When that happens, the overall economy is strengthened.

Also, you're presuming that HD wouldn't pass along any of that $2200 cost to European consumers. I don't think they're that altruistic.

 

[JettaKnight]

Why is it then, that when companies ship jobs overseas because of wages, we criticize the companies and not the POTUS?

Because one is simply market forces that are inevitable, and the other is actively tampering with markets in a way that have historically failed miserably.

Also, if it's not the presidents fault when job ship out, then how can you give Trump credit when jobs come back? You can't have it both ways.

Also, you're presuming that HD wouldn't pass along any of that $2200 cost to European consumers. I don't think they're that altruistic.

If you do that, then EU customers will simply buy a BMW, etc. If they could get the same number of sales with a $2200 higher price tag, don't you think they would already be doing that?

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Because one is simply market forces that are inevitable, and the other is actively tampering with markets in a way that have historically failed miserably.

Also, if it's not the presidents fault when job ship out, then how can you give Trump credit when jobs come back? You can't have it both ways.

If you do that, then EU customers will simply buy a BMW, etc. If they could get the same number of sales with a $2200 higher price tag, don't you think they would already be doing that?

First, I would agree that tampering with markets is a bad idea, but that horse has left the barn (ie. NAFTA and other trade agreements which were grossly in favor of other countries, but not the U.S.), so I see this particular tampering as an attempt to correct those past bad policies. Is it ideal? No, but do you think the other countries that benefitted from those past agreements would voluntarily give up those benefits? Short of that, what's the solution?

As for the EU customers just buying a BMW, etc., why don't we see people favoring Fords and Chevys over BMWs and Mercedes here? (Talking about people that could afford either one.) I suspect that in Europe, an HD has a certain attraction over and above their quality of manufacture. For those people, I don't see the demand dropping off significantly. The heart wants what the heart wants, despite complaints from the wallet sometimes.

 

[JettaKnight]

The history and economics prove you wrong.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

The history and economics prove you wrong.

Perhaps... wouldn't be the first time!

 

[BehindBlueI's]

Also, you're presuming that HD wouldn't pass along any of that $2200 cost to European consumers. I don't think they're that altruistic.

No, I'm not:

A $2200 increase of cost of manufacturing can only result in some combination of increased prices or decreased profit margins.

And Harley has already said:

Harley plans to eat much of the cost increase tied to the EU’s tariffs because trying to pass it on to dealers or customers would make an “immediate and lasting detrimental impact” on its business, it said in the filing.

It's not altruism, it's fundamental economics. If supply is flat, moving price upward will decrease demand. Demand is already flat so instead of just slowing sales growth it will cause sales decline. H-D doesn't pull pricing out of their backside, they price at what the market will bear to maximize profit.

Why is it then, that when companies ship jobs overseas because of wages, we criticize the companies and not the POTUS?

Is pointing out the effects of the policy criticizing? Does POTUS set wages?

 

[JettaKnight]

There's another factor - now those HD's won't bear the coveted "made in the USA" label.


All this trade war tariff crap is going to do is isolated us and turn us into the kid who never gets invited to the parties. China will replace America as the #1 superpower because we shot our self in the foot.

 

[BroodXI]

I had to go down and buy a new suspension system for my welding shield. While I was there I thought I would pick up a extra roll of mig wire. Last time I bought a roll it was $22+. This roll cost me $38+. That is $16 rise in cost in 2 months.

The reason that was given is the tariffs have kicked in and no one in the US makes mig wire. American Co put there name on mig wire that they sell, but it is made out side the US.

I have said for years that we need to make everything we use in this country. I am not saying that we should not import stuff. I am saying that if we make everything we use then we would have more control over our own fate. What I am saying is if the Us uses 4 rolls of mig wire a year at least 1 should be made in the US. Then when something comes up like this we have choices. We cold ramp up the mig wire production or all such things and wouldn't have jumps in prices like this.


The price of US steel stock has went from $48 to $69. Could this be the real reason we now have steel tariffs? I think some of the old steel plants may rise from the ashes to make steel once more.

What are your thoughts?

May each day bring you at least one pleasure.

since you brought up steel plants,
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets...reopened-by-uk-industrialist-avoiding-tariffs

i'm late to the game, sorry

 

[Kutnupe14]

Because one is simply market forces that are inevitable, and the other is actively tampering with markets in a way that have historically failed miserably.

Also, if it's not the presidents fault when job ship out, then how can you give Trump credit when jobs come back? You can't have it both ways.

If you do that, then EU customers will simply buy a BMW, etc. If they could get the same number of sales with a $2200 higher price tag, don't you think they would already be doing that?

THIS!

 

[BehindBlueI's]

since you brought up steel plants,
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets...reopened-by-uk-industrialist-avoiding-tariffs

i'm late to the game, sorry

And that's a quite good thing. Bringing back an industrial base to the US. I have no idea if the tariffs will do to the economy as a whole, but I can't disagree with Trump that domestic steel production is a national security issue as well as an economic one.